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<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">BG</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Biogeosciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">BG</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Biogeosciences</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1726-4189</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/bg-10-8305-2013</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>Evaluation of biospheric components in Earth system models using modern and palaeo-observations: the state-of-the-art</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Foley</surname>
<given-names>A. M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff17">
<sup>17</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Dalmonech</surname>
<given-names>D.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Friend</surname>
<given-names>A. D.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Aires</surname>
<given-names>F.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Archibald</surname>
<given-names>A. T.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9302-4180</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bartlein</surname>
<given-names>P.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7657-5685</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Bopp</surname>
<given-names>L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Chappellaz</surname>
<given-names>J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Cox</surname>
<given-names>P.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0679-2219</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Edwards</surname>
<given-names>N. R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Feulner</surname>
<given-names>G.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9215-5517</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Friedlingstein</surname>
<given-names>P.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3309-4739</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Harrison</surname>
<given-names>S. P.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Hopcroft</surname>
<given-names>P. O.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff12">
<sup>12</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Jones</surname>
<given-names>C. D.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7141-9285</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff13">
<sup>13</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Kolassa</surname>
<given-names>J.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Levine</surname>
<given-names>J. G.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff18">
<sup>18</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Prentice</surname>
<given-names>I. C.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1296-6764</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff15">
<sup>15</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Pyle</surname>
<given-names>J.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3629-9916</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Vázquez Riveiros</surname>
<given-names>N.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7513-153X</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff16">
<sup>16</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Wolff</surname>
<given-names>E. W.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5914-8531</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff14">
<sup>14</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff19">
<sup>19</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Zaehle</surname>
<given-names>S.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Biogeochemical Integration Department, Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Estellus, Paris, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, Oregon, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l&apos;Environnement, Gif sur Yvette, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>UJF &amp;ndash; Grenoble I and CNRS Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l&apos;Environnement, Grenoble, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Environment, Earth and Ecosystems, The Open University, Milton Keynes, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia and Geography and Environmental Sciences, School of Human and Environmental Sciences, Reading University, Reading, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff12">
<label>12</label>
<addr-line>BRIDGE, School of Geographical Science, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff13">
<label>13</label>
<addr-line>Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff14">
<label>14</label>
<addr-line>British Antarctic Survey, Cambridge, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff15">
<label>15</label>
<addr-line>AXA Chair of Biosphere and Climate Impacts, Department of Life Sciences and Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College, Silwood Park, UK and Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff16">
<label>16</label>
<addr-line>Godwin Laboratory for Palaeoclimate Research, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff17">
<label>17</label>
<addr-line>now at: Cambridge Centre for Climate Change Mitigation Research, Department of Land Economy, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff18">
<label>18</label>
<addr-line>now at: School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff19">
<label>19</label>
<addr-line>now at: Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>16</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2013</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>10</volume>
<issue>12</issue>
<fpage>8305</fpage>
<lpage>8328</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2013 A. M. Foley et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2013</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/10/8305/2013/bg-10-8305-2013.html">This article is available from https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/10/8305/2013/bg-10-8305-2013.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/10/8305/2013/bg-10-8305-2013.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/10/8305/2013/bg-10-8305-2013.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Earth system models (ESMs) are increasing in complexity by incorporating more
processes than their predecessors, making them potentially important tools
for studying the evolution of climate and associated biogeochemical cycles.
However, their coupled behaviour has only recently been examined in any
detail, and has yielded a very wide range of outcomes. For example, coupled
climate–carbon cycle models that represent land-use change simulate total
land carbon stores at 2100 that vary by as much as 600 Pg C, given the same
emissions scenario. This large uncertainty is associated with differences in
how key processes are simulated in different models, and illustrates the
necessity of determining which models are most realistic using rigorous
methods of model evaluation. Here we assess the state-of-the-art in
evaluation of ESMs, with a particular emphasis on the simulation of the
carbon cycle and associated biospheric processes. We examine some of the new
advances and remaining uncertainties relating to (i) modern and palaeodata
and (ii) metrics for evaluation. We note that the practice of averaging
results from many models is unreliable and no substitute for proper
evaluation of individual models. We discuss a range of strategies, such as
the inclusion of pre-calibration, combined process- and system-level
evaluation, and the use of emergent constraints, that can contribute to the
development of more robust evaluation schemes. An increasingly data-rich
environment offers more opportunities for model evaluation, but also presents
a challenge. Improved knowledge of data uncertainties is still necessary to
move the field of ESM evaluation away from a &quot;beauty contest&quot; towards the
development of useful constraints on model outcomes.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="24"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
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