<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?>
<!DOCTYPE article PUBLIC "-//NLM//DTD Journal Publishing DTD v3.0 20080202//EN" "https://jats.nlm.nih.gov/nlm-dtd/publishing/3.0/journalpublishing3.dtd">
<article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" article-type="research-article" dtd-version="3.0" xml:lang="en">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">BG</journal-id>
<journal-title-group>
<journal-title>Biogeosciences</journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">BG</abbrev-journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Biogeosciences</abbrev-journal-title>
</journal-title-group>
<issn pub-type="epub">1726-4189</issn>
<publisher><publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
<publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/bg-11-3453-2014</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title>The declining uptake rate of atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; by land and ocean sinks</article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Raupach</surname>
<given-names>M. R.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff3">
<sup>3</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gloor</surname>
<given-names>M.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff4">
<sup>4</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Sarmiento</surname>
<given-names>J. L.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Canadell</surname>
<given-names>J. G.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8788-3218</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff2">
<sup>2</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff1">
<sup>1</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Frölicher</surname>
<given-names>T. L.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2348-7854</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff6">
<sup>6</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff5">
<sup>5</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Gasser</surname>
<given-names>T.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff8">
<sup>8</sup>
</xref>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff7">
<sup>7</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Houghton</surname>
<given-names>R. A.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3298-7028</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff9">
<sup>9</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Le Quéré</surname>
<given-names>C.</given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff10">
<sup>10</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author" xlink:type="simple"><name name-style="western"><surname>Trudinger</surname>
<given-names>C. M.</given-names>
<ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4844-2153</ext-link>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff11">
<sup>11</sup>
</xref>
</contrib>
</contrib-group><aff id="aff1">
<label>1</label>
<addr-line>CSIRO, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff2">
<label>2</label>
<addr-line>Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff3">
<label>3</label>
<addr-line>Present affiliation: Climate Change Institute, Australian National University, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff4">
<label>4</label>
<addr-line>School of Geography, University of Leeds, Woodhouse Lane LS9 2JT, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff5">
<label>5</label>
<addr-line>Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Sayre Hall, Forrestal Campus, Princeton, NJ 08540-6654, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff6">
<label>6</label>
<addr-line>Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Switzerland</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff7">
<label>7</label>
<addr-line>Centre International de Recherche en Environnement et Développement, CNRS-CIRAD-EHESS-AgroParisTech-PontsParisTech, Campus du Jardin Tropical, 94736 Nogent-sur-Marne Cedex, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff8">
<label>8</label>
<addr-line>Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l&apos;Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, CE l&apos;Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette Cedex, France</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff9">
<label>9</label>
<addr-line>Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, MA 02540, USA</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff10">
<label>10</label>
<addr-line>Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ, UK</addr-line>
</aff>
<aff id="aff11">
<label>11</label>
<addr-line>CSIRO, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Aspendale, VIC 3195, Australia</addr-line>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>02</day>
<month>07</month>
<year>2014</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>11</volume>
<issue>13</issue>
<fpage>3453</fpage>
<lpage>3475</lpage>
<permissions>
<copyright-statement>Copyright: &#x000a9; 2014 M. R. Raupach et al.</copyright-statement>
<copyright-year>2014</copyright-year>
<license license-type="open-access">
<license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri"  xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/</ext-link></license-p>
</license>
</permissions>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/11/3453/2014/bg-11-3453-2014.html">This article is available from https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/11/3453/2014/bg-11-3453-2014.html</self-uri>
<self-uri xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/11/3453/2014/bg-11-3453-2014.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/11/3453/2014/bg-11-3453-2014.pdf</self-uri>
<abstract>
<p>Through 1959–2012, an airborne fraction (AF) of 0.44 of total
      anthropogenic CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions remained in the atmosphere, with
      the rest being taken up by land and ocean CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;
      sinks. Understanding of this uptake is critical because it greatly
      alleviates the emissions reductions required for climate mitigation,
      and also reduces the risks and damages that adaptation has to embrace.
      An observable quantity that reflects sink properties more
      directly than the AF is the CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; sink rate (&lt;i&gt;k&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;S&lt;/sub&gt;),
      the combined land–ocean CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; sink flux per unit excess
      atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; above preindustrial levels. Here we show from
      observations that &lt;i&gt;k&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;S&lt;/sub&gt; declined over 1959–2012 by a factor
      of about 1 / 3, implying that CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; sinks increased more slowly
      than excess CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;.  Using a carbon–climate model,
      we attribute the decline in &lt;i&gt;k&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;S&lt;/sub&gt;
      to four mechanisms: slower-than-exponential CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions
      growth (~ 35% of the trend), volcanic eruptions (~ 25%),
      sink responses to climate change (~ 20%), and
      nonlinear responses to increasing CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;, mainly oceanic (~ 20%).
      The first of these mechanisms is associated purely with
      the trajectory of extrinsic forcing, and the last two with intrinsic, feedback
      responses of sink processes to changes in climate and atmospheric
      CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;. Our results suggest that the effects of these intrinsic,
      nonlinear responses are already detectable in the global carbon
      cycle. Although continuing future decreases in &lt;i&gt;k&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;S&lt;/sub&gt; will
      occur under all plausible CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emission scenarios, the rate of
      decline varies between scenarios in non-intuitive ways because
      extrinsic and intrinsic mechanisms respond in opposite ways to changes
      in emissions: extrinsic mechanisms cause &lt;i&gt;k&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;S&lt;/sub&gt; to decline
      more strongly with increasing mitigation, while intrinsic mechanisms
      cause &lt;i&gt;k&lt;/i&gt;&lt;sub&gt;S&lt;/sub&gt; to decline more strongly under high-emission,
      low-mitigation scenarios as the carbon–climate system is perturbed
      further from a near-linear regime.</p>
</abstract>
<counts><page-count count="23"/></counts>
</article-meta>
</front>
<body/>
<back>
<ref-list>
<title>References</title>
<ref id="ref1">
<label>1</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Ammann, C. M., Meehl, G. A., Washington, W. M., and Zender, C. S.: A monthly and latitudinally varying volcanic forcing dataset in simulations of 20th century climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1657, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2003GL016875&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2003GL016875&lt;/a&gt;, 2003.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref2">
<label>2</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Andres, R. J., Boden, T. A., Bréon, F.-M., Ciais, P., Davis, S., Erickson, D., Gregg, J. S., Jacobson, A., Marland, G., Miller, J., Oda, T., Olivier, J. G. J., Raupach, M. R., Rayner, P., and Treanton, K.: A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, Biogeosciences, 9, 1845–1871, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-1845-2012&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-1845-2012&lt;/a&gt;, 2012.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref3">
<label>3</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Archer, D., Eby, M., Brovkin, V., Ridgwell, A., Cao, L., Mikolajewicz, U., Caldeira, K., Matsumoto, K., Munhoven, G., Montenegro, A., and Tokos, K.: Atmospheric lifetime of fossil fuel carbon dioxide, Annu. Rev. Earth Pl. Sc., 37, 117–134, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref4">
<label>4</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Bacastow, R. B. and Keeling, C. D.: Models to predict future atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; concentrations, in: Workshop on the Global Effects of Carbon Dioxide from Fossil Fuels, edited by: Elliott, W. P. and Machta, L., United States Department of Energy, Washington DC, 1979.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref5">
<label>5</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Ballantyne, A. P., Alden, C. B., Miller, J. B., Tans, P. P., and White, J. W. C.: Increase in observed net carbon dioxide uptake by land and oceans during the past 50 years, Nature, 488, 70–73, 2012.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref6">
<label>6</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Boden, T. A., Marland, G., and Andres, R. J.: Global, regional and national fossil-fuel CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, US Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, TN, USA, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2013&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.3334/CDIAC/00001_V2013&lt;/a&gt;, &lt;a href=&quot;http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html&quot;&gt;http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth_reg.html&lt;/a&gt; (last access: 23 November 2013), 2013.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref7">
<label>7</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Box, G., Jenkins, G. M., and Reinsel, G.: Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, 3rd edn., Prentice Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1994.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref8">
<label>8</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Canadell, J. G., Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Field, C. B., Buitenhuis, E. T., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Gillett, N. P., Houghton, R. A., and Marland, G.: Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 104, 18866–18870, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref9">
<label>9</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Ciais, P., Gasser, T., Paris, J. D., Caldeira, K., Raupach, M. R., Canadell, J. G., Patwardhan, A., Friedlingstein, P., Piao, S., and Gitz, V.: Attributing the increase of atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; to emitters and absorbers, Nat. Clim. Change, 3, 926–930, 2013.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref10">
<label>10</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">FAO: Global Forest Resources Assessment 2005, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref11">
<label>11</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">FAO: Global Forest Resources Assessment 2010, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref12">
<label>12</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Francey, R. J., Trudinger, C. M., van der Schoot, M., Krummel, P. B., Steele, L. P., and Langenfelds, R. L.: Differences between trends in atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and the reported trends in anthropogenic CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions, Tellus B, 62, 316–328, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref13">
<label>13</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R., Bopp, L., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Cadule, P., Doney, S., Eby, M., Fung, I., Bala, G., John, J., Jones, C., Joos, F., Kato, T., Kawamiya, M., Knorr, W., Lindsay, K., Matthews, H. D., Raddatz, T., Rayner, P., Reick, C., Roeckner, E., Schnitzler, K. G., Schnur, R., Strassmann, K., Weaver, A. J., Yoshikawa, C., and Zeng, N.: Climate–carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the C4MIP model intercomparison, J. Climate, 19, 3337–3353, 2006.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref14">
<label>14</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Friedlingstein, P., Solomon, S., Plattner, G. K., Knutti, R., Ciais, P., and Raupach, M. R.: Long-term climate implications of twenty-first century options for carbon dioxide emission mitigation, Nat. Clim. Change, 1, 457-461, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate1302&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1038/Nclimate1302&lt;/a&gt;, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref15">
<label>15</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Frölicher, T. L., Joos, F., Raible, C. C., and Sarmiento, J. L.: Atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; response to volcanic eruptions: the role of ENSO, season, and variability, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 27, 239–251, 2013.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref16">
<label>16</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Gasser, T. and Ciais, P.: A theoretical framework for the net land-to-atmosphere CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; flux and its implications in the definition of &quot;emissions from land-use change&quot;, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 171–186, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-171-2013&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-171-2013&lt;/a&gt;, 2013.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref17">
<label>17</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Gloor, M., Sarmiento, J. L., and Gruber, N.: What can be learned about carbon cycle climate feedbacks from the CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; airborne fraction?, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 7739–7751, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7739-2010&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-10-7739-2010&lt;/a&gt;, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref18">
<label>18</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Goldewijk, K. K.: Estimating global land use change over the past 300 years: the HYDE database 1, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 417–433, 2001.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref19">
<label>19</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Gregg, J. S., Andres, R. J., and Marland, G.: China: emissions pattern of the world leader in CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions from fossil fuel consumption and cement production, Geophys. Res. Lett., 35, L08806, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032887&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL032887&lt;/a&gt;, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref20">
<label>20</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Guan, D., Lui, Z., Geng, Y., Lindner, S., and Hubacek, K.: The gigatonne gap in China&apos;s carbon dioxide inventories, Nat. Clim. Change, 2, 672–675, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1560&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE1560&lt;/a&gt;, 2012.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref21">
<label>21</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Hansen, M. C., Stehman, S. V., Potapov, P. V., Loveland, T. R., Townshend, J. R. G., DeFries, R. S., Pittman, K. W., Arunarwati, B., Stolle, F., Steininger, M. K., Carroll, M., and DiMiceli, C.: Humid tropical forest clearing from 2000 to 2005 quantified by using multitemporal and multiresolution remotely sensed data, P. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 105, 9439–9444, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref22">
<label>22</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Harman, I. N., Trudinger, C. M., and Raupach, M. R.: SCCM – the Simple Carbon–Climate Model: Technical documentation, Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research, Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO, Melbourne, Australia, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref23">
<label>23</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Hofmann, D. J., Butler, J. H., and Tans, P. P.: A new look at atmospheric carbon dioxide, Atmos. Environ., 43, 2084–2086, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref24">
<label>24</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Houghton, R. A.: Why are estimates of the terrestrial carbon balance so different?, Glob. Change Biol., 9, 500–509, 2003.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref25">
<label>25</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Houghton, R. A.: How well do we know the flux of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; from land-use change?, Tellus B, 62, 337–351, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref26">
<label>26</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">IPCC: Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref27">
<label>27</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Jones, C. D. and Cox, P. M.: Modeling the volcanic signal in the atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; record, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 453–465, 2001.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref28">
<label>28</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Joos, F., Bruno, M., Fink, R., Siegenthaler, U., Stocker, T. F., and Le Quéré, C.: An efficient and accurate representation of complex oceanic and biospheric models of anthropogenic carbon uptake, Tellus B, 48, 397–417, 1996.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref29">
<label>29</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Joos, F., Roth, R., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Peters, G. P., Enting, I. G., von Bloh, W., Brovkin, V., Burke, E. J., Eby, M., Edwards, N. R., Friedrich, T., Frölicher, T. L., Halloran, P. R., Holden, P. B., Jones, C., Kleinen, T., Mackenzie, F. T., Matsumoto, K., Meinshausen, M., Plattner, G.-K., Reisinger, A., Segschneider, J., Shaffer, G., Steinacher, M., Strassmann, K., Tanaka, K., Timmermann, A., and Weaver, A. J.: Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 13, 2793–2825, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-13-2793-2013&lt;/a&gt;, 2013.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref30">
<label>30</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Keeling, C. D. and Revelle, R.: Effects of El-Nino Southern Oscillation on the atmospheric content of carbon-dioxide, Meteoritics, 20, 437–450, 1985.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref31">
<label>31</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Keeling, C. D., Piper, S. C., Bacastow, R. B., Wahlen, M., Whorf, T. P., Heimann, M., and Meijer, H. A.: Exchanges of Atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and \chem^{13CO_2} with the Terrestrial Biosphere and Oceans From 1978 to 2000. I. Global Aspects, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, 88 pp., 2001.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref32">
<label>32</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Keeling, C. D., Piper, S. C., Bacastow, R. B., Wahlen, M., Whorf, T. P., Heimann, M., and Meijer, H. A.: Atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and \chem^{13CO_2} exchange with the terrestrial biosphere and oceans from 1978 to 2000: observations and carbon cycle implications, in: A History of Atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and Its Effects on Plants, Animals, and Ecosystems, edited by: Ehleringer, J. R., Cerling, T. E., and Dearing, M. D., Springer Verlag, New York, 2005.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref33">
<label>33</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Knorr, W.: Is the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions increasing?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21710, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040613&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040613&lt;/a&gt;, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref34">
<label>34</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Le Quéré, C., Rodenbeck, C., Buitenhuis, E. T., Conway, T. J., Langenfelds, R., Gomez, A., Labuschagne, C., Ramonet, M., Nakazawa, T., Metzl, N., Gillett, N., and Heimann, M.: Saturation of the Southern Ocean CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; sink due to recent climate change, Science, 316, 1735–1738, 2007.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref35">
<label>35</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Le Quéré, C., Raupach, M. R., Canadell, J. G., Marland, G., Bopp, L., Ciais, P., Conway, T. J., Doney, S. C., Feely, R. A., Foster, P., Friedlingstein, P., Gurney, K. R., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Huntingford, C., Levy, P. E., Lomas, M. R., Majkut, J., Metzl, N., Ometto, J., Peters, G. P., Prentice, I. C., Randerson, J. T., Running, S. W., Sarmiento, J. L., Schuster, U., Sitch, S., Takahashi, T., Viovy, N., van der Werf, G. R., and Woodward, F. I.: Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide, Nat. Geosci., 2, 831–836, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref36">
<label>36</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Le Quéré, C., Andres, R. J., Boden, T., Conway, T., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Marland, G., Peters, G. P., van der Werf, G. R., Ahlström, A., Andrew, R. M., Bopp, L., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Doney, S. C., Enright, C., Friedlingstein, P., Huntingford, C., Jain, A. K., Jourdain, C., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, K., Levis, S., Levy, P., Lomas, M., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Schwinger, J., Sitch, S., Stocker, B. D., Viovy, N., Zaehle, S., and Zeng, N.: The global carbon budget 1959–2011, Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 5, 165–185, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-5-165-2013&lt;/a&gt;, 2013.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref37">
<label>37</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Lewis, E. and Wallace, D. J.: Program Developed for CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; System Calculations, Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, 38 pp., 1998.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref38">
<label>38</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Li, S. and Jarvis, A. J.: Long run surface temperature dynamics of an A-OGCM: the HadCM3 4xCO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; forcing experiment revisited, Clim. Dynam., 33, 817–825, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref39">
<label>39</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Li, S., Jarvis, A. J., and Leedal, D. T.: Are response function representations of the global carbon cycle ever interpretable?, Tellus B-Chem. Phys. Meteorol., 61, 361–371, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref40">
<label>40</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Marland, G.: Uncertainties in accounting for CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; from fossil fuels, J. Ind. Ecol., 12, 136–139, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref41">
<label>41</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">McGuire, A. D., Sitch, S., Clein, J. S., Dargaville, R., Esser, G., Foley, J. A., Heimann, M., Joos, F., Kaplan, J., Kicklighter, D. W., Meier, R. A., Melillo, J. M., Moore, B., Prentice, I. C., Ramankutty, N., Reichenau, T., Schloss, A., Tian, H., Williams, L. J., and Wittenberg, U.: Carbon balance of the terrestrial biosphere in the twentieth century: analyses of CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt;, climate and land use effects with four process-based ecosystem models 1, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 183–206, 2001.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref42">
<label>42</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Millennium Ecosystem Assessment: Ecosystems and human wellbeing: synthesis, Island Press, Washington DC, USA, 2005.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref43">
<label>43</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Nepstad, D., Soares, B. S., Merry, F., Lima, A., Moutinho, P., Carter, J., Bowman, M., Cattaneo, A., Rodrigues, H., Schwartzman, S., McGrath, D. G., Stickler, C. M., Lubowski, R., Piris-Cabezas, P., Rivero, S., Alencar, A., Almeida, O., and Stella, O.: The end of deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon, Science, 326, 1350–1351, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref44">
<label>44</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">NOAA-ESRL: Trends in Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, Global Monitoring Division, Earth System Research Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Admisinstration, Boulder, CO, USA, &lt;a href=&quot;http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/&quot;&gt;http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends/&lt;/a&gt; (last access: 23 November 2013), 2013.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref45">
<label>45</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Oeschger, H., Siegenthaler, U., and Heimann, M.: The carbon cycle and its perturbations by man, in: Interactions of Energy and Climate, edited by: Bach, W., Pankrath, J., and Williams, J., Reidel, Dordrecht, 1980.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref46">
<label>46</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Piao, S. L., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., de Noblet-Ducoudre, N., Cadule, P., Viovy, N., and Wang, T.: Spatiotemporal patterns of terrestrial carbon cycle during the 20th century, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB4026, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003339&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GB003339&lt;/a&gt;, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref47">
<label>47</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Ramankutty, N. and Foley, J. A.: Estimating historical changes in global land cover: croplands from 1700 to 1992, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 13, 997–1027, 1999.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref48">
<label>48</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Raupach, M. R.: The exponential eigenmodes of the carbon–climate system, and their implications for ratios of responses to forcings, Earth Syst. Dynam., 4, 31–49, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-31-2013&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-4-31-2013&lt;/a&gt;, 2013.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref49">
<label>49</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Raupach, M. R., Canadell, J. G., and Le Quéré, C.: Anthropogenic and biophysical contributions to increasing atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; growth rate and airborne fraction, Biogeosciences, 5, 1601–1613, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-5-1601-2008&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-5-1601-2008&lt;/a&gt;, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref50">
<label>50</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Raupach, M. R., Canadell, J. G., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Rayner, P. J., and Trudinger, C. M.: The relationship between peak warming and cumulative CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; emissions, and its use to quantify vulnerabilities in the carbon–climate–human system, Tellus B, 63, 145–164, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref51">
<label>51</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Regalado, A.: Brazil says rate of deforestation in the Amazon continues to plunge, Science, 329, 1270–1271, 2011.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref52">
<label>52</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Sarmiento, J. L., Gloor, M., Gruber, N., Beaulieu, C., Jacobson, A. R., Mikaloff Fletcher, S. E., Pacala, S., and Rodgers, K.: Trends and regional distributions of land and ocean carbon sinks, Biogeosciences, 7, 2351–2367, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-2351-2010&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-7-2351-2010&lt;/a&gt;, 2010.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref53">
<label>53</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Scripps CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; Program: Atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; data, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, San Diego, CA, USA, &lt;a href=&quot;http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/data.html&quot;&gt;http://scrippsco2.ucsd.edu/data/data.html&lt;/a&gt;, (last access: 23 November 2013), 2013.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref54">
<label>54</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Shevliakova, E., Pacala, S. W., Malyshev, S., Hurtt, G. C., Milly, P. C. D., Caspersen, J. P., Sentman, L. T., Fisk, J. P., Wirth, C., and Crevoisier, C.: Carbon cycling under 300 years of land use change: importance of the secondary vegetation sink 1, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 23, GB2022, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003176&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GB003176&lt;/a&gt;, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref55">
<label>55</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Gruber, N., Jones, S. D., Murray-Tortarolo, G., Ahlström, A., Doney, S., Graven, H., Heinze, C., Huntingford, C., Levis, S., Levy, P., Lomas, M., Poulter, B., Viovy, N., Zaehle, S., Zeng, N., Arneth, A., Bonan, G., Bopp, L., Canadell, J. G., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Ellis, R., Gloor, M., Peylin, P., Piao, S., Le Quéré, C., Smith, B., Zhu, Z., and Myneni, R.: Trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide over the past two decades, Biogeosciences Discuss., 10, 20113–20177, &lt;a href=&quot;http://dx.doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-20113-2013&quot;&gt;https://doi.org/10.5194/bgd-10-20113-2013&lt;/a&gt;, 2013.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref56">
<label>56</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Strassmann, K. M., Joos, F., and Fischer, G.: Simulating effects of land use changes on carbon fluxes: past contributions to atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; increases and future commitments due to losses of terrestrial sink capacity 1, Tellus B, 60, 583–603, 2008.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref57">
<label>57</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Tans, P.: An accounting of the observed increase in oceanic and atmospheric CO&lt;sub&gt;2&lt;/sub&gt; and an outlook for the future, Oceanography, 22, 26–35, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref58">
<label>58</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">UNFCCC: Methodological Issues: Scientific and Methodological Assessment of Contributions to Climate Change, Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, New Delhi, 27 pp., 2002.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="ref59">
<label>59</label><mixed-citation publication-type="other" xlink:type="simple">Van Minnen, J. G., Goldewijk, K. K., Stehfest, E., Eickhout, B., Van Drecht, G., and Leemans, R.: The importance of three centuries of land-use change for the global and regional terrestrial carbon cycle, Climatic Change, 97, 123–144, 2009.</mixed-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>