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<article xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:oasis="http://docs.oasis-open.org/ns/oasis-exchange/table" xml:lang="en" dtd-version="3.0" article-type="research-article">
  <front>
    <journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher">BG</journal-id><journal-title-group>
    <journal-title>Biogeosciences</journal-title>
    <abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="publisher">BG</abbrev-journal-title><abbrev-journal-title abbrev-type="nlm-ta">Biogeosciences</abbrev-journal-title>
  </journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">1726-4189</issn><publisher>
    <publisher-name>Copernicus Publications</publisher-name>
    <publisher-loc>Göttingen, Germany</publisher-loc>
  </publisher></journal-meta>
    <article-meta>
      <article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5194/bg-23-3299-2026</article-id><title-group><article-title>The efficiency and ocean acidification mitigation potential of ocean alkalinity enhancement on multi-centennial timescales</article-title><alt-title>Efficiency of OAE on multi-centennial timescales</alt-title>
      </title-group>
      <contrib-group>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Grosselindemann</surname><given-names>Hendrik</given-names></name>
          <email>hgrosselindemann@gmail.com</email>
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4477-6874</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Burger</surname><given-names>Friedrich A.</given-names></name>
          
        <ext-link>https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7781-8498</ext-link></contrib>
        <contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="no" rid="aff1 aff2">
          <name><surname>Frölicher</surname><given-names>Thomas L.</given-names></name>
          
        </contrib>
        <aff id="aff1"><label>1</label><institution>University of Bern, Climate and Environmental Physics, Bern, Switzerland</institution>
        </aff>
        <aff id="aff2"><label>2</label><institution>University of Bern, Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, Bern, Switzerland</institution>
        </aff>
      </contrib-group>
      <author-notes><corresp id="corr1">Hendrik Grosselindemann (hgrosselindemann@gmail.com)</corresp></author-notes><pub-date><day>18</day><month>May</month><year>2026</year></pub-date>
      
      <volume>23</volume>
      <issue>10</issue>
      <fpage>3299</fpage><lpage>3321</lpage>
      <history>
        <date date-type="received"><day>16</day><month>January</month><year>2026</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-request"><day>22</day><month>January</month><year>2026</year></date>
           <date date-type="rev-recd"><day>23</day><month>April</month><year>2026</year></date>
           <date date-type="accepted"><day>28</day><month>April</month><year>2026</year></date>
      </history>
      <permissions>
        <copyright-statement>Copyright: © 2026 Hendrik Grosselindemann et al.</copyright-statement>
        <copyright-year>2026</copyright-year>
      <license license-type="open-access"><license-p>This work is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. To view a copy of this licence, visit <ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/">https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/</ext-link></license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026.html">This article is available from https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026.html</self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026.pdf">The full text article is available as a PDF file from https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026.pdf</self-uri>
      <abstract><title>Abstract</title>

      <p id="d2e105">Carbon dioxide removal (CDR) strategies such as ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) are likely required in addition to rapid emissions reductions to limit global warming to well below 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M1" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. However, the long-term efficiency of OAE and its potential to mitigate climate change and ocean acidification remain uncertain. Here, we investigate efficiencies, climate and ocean acidification responses of idealized OAE using a fully coupled, emission-driven Earth system model across three global warming stabilization scenarios (1.5, 2, and 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M2" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) spanning 1861–2500. OAE is implemented as a continuous global surface alkalinity addition of 0.14 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M3" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Pmol</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">yr</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> following the CDRMIP protocol from 2026 onward. Our results show that OAE reduces atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M4" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> by 73–130 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M5" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ppm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> by 2500, with larger reductions under higher warming scenarios and during the first 100 to 200 years of alkalinity addition. In contrast, global surface air temperature decreases nearly linearly by 0.14–0.17 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M6" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> per century across all scenarios, indicating that the cooling rate due to OAE is largely insensitive to the emission pathway and background warming level. The interpretation of OAE efficiency depends strongly on the chosen metric. The global gross ocean carbon capture efficiency of about 0.79 remains close to the theoretical maximum, reflecting the negative emissions through OAE, whereas the net ocean capture and atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M7" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reduction efficiencies are substantially lower and decline over time due to carbon cycle feedbacks in response to lowered atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M8" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. OAE mitigates ocean acidification, at the surface as well as in the interior ocean, with most centennial-scale mitigation arising from atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M9" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> drawdown, an effect shared with other CDR approaches. Direct chemical effects of added alkalinity contribute transiently and diminish over time as the ocean–atmosphere system equilibrates. Overall, our results underscore that rapid emission reductions remain the most effective strategy for achieving the Paris Agreement goals and mitigating ocean acidification.</p>
  </abstract>
    </article-meta>
  </front>
<body>
      

<sec id="Ch1.S1" sec-type="intro">
  <label>1</label><title>Introduction</title>
      <p id="d2e217">Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M10" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) emissions from fossil fuel combustion and land use change have increased atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M11" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations by about 50 %, reaching 423 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M12" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ppm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in 2024 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx35" id="paren.1"/>, higher than at any point in at least the past two million years <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx50" id="paren.2"/>. This unprecedented increase in greenhouse gas concentrations is the main driver of global surface warming, which averaged about 1.24 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M13" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> above pre-industrial levels during 2015–2024 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx31" id="paren.3"/>, and is contributing to more frequent and severe climate extremes both on land and in the ocean <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx40 bib1.bibx50" id="paren.4"/>. These changes already harm ecosystems and human systems around the world <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx51" id="paren.5"/>. Ongoing efforts to reduce emissions remain inadequate and global temperatures are now on track to exceed the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M14" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> threshold of the Paris Agreement in the next decade.</p>
      <p id="d2e286">Limiting global warming to 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M15" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> will require not only deep decarbonization <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx52 bib1.bibx88" id="paren.6"/>, but also large-scale carbon dioxide removal (CDR), particularly to offset residual emissions from hard-to-abate sectors such as aviation, cement industry and agriculture <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx52 bib1.bibx8" id="paren.7"/>. As a result, CDR has become an integral component of national pathways to net-zero emissions <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx6" id="paren.8"/>. Current efforts have largely focused on implementing land-based CDR methods, while ocean-based approaches remain comparatively understudied <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx89 bib1.bibx9" id="paren.9"/>. Among these, ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) stands out as one of the most promising due to its large carbon sequestration potential, long storage timescales, and potential co-benefits of mitigating ocean acidification <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx80 bib1.bibx50 bib1.bibx74 bib1.bibx20" id="paren.10"/>. OAE involves adding alkaline materials, such as olivine or quicklime, or alkaline solutions to seawater to enhance its natural ability to absorb atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M16" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Through this process, aqueous <inline-formula><mml:math id="M17" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is converted into bicarbonate and carbonate ions, which represent longer-lived forms of inorganic carbon in the ocean on centennial to millennial timescales <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx80 bib1.bibx67 bib1.bibx74 bib1.bibx47" id="paren.11"/>.  On longer timescales, the persistence of the added alkalinity is limited by <inline-formula><mml:math id="M18" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CaCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> sediment interactions and weathering feedbacks <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx59 bib1.bibx1" id="paren.12"/>.  The resulting depletion of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M19" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in surface waters drives additional oceanic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M20" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> uptake, thereby lowering atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M21" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. In addition, by increasing ocean pH, OAE may help counteract ocean acidification and alleviate stress on marine ecosystems <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx19 bib1.bibx5" id="paren.13"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e391">The feasibility of a CDR approach depends on multiple factors, with efficiency and durability of atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M22" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reduction being particularly critical. Approaches that fail to achieve substantial and long-lasting removal of atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M23" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> are unlikely to be viable. Efficiency, defined as the amount of additional ocean carbon uptake per unit of alkalinity added, is a key metric for carbon accounting because it determines how much carbon removal can be attributed to an intervention <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx10" id="paren.14"/>. For OAE, efficiency is shaped by three main factors: the ocean's carbonate chemistry, physical ocean processes and global carbon cycle feedbacks. First, the ocean's carbonate chemistry ultimately limits how much additional atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M24" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> can be taken up and stored as dissolved inorganic carbon in response to added alkalinity, thereby setting the theoretical upper limit of efficiency <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx80" id="paren.15"/>. Second, physical ocean processes such as local mixing and air–sea equilibration dynamics exert a strong control on efficiency <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx46" id="paren.16"/>. For example, if added alkalinity is mixed below the surface before equilibration, efficiency initially decreases <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx71 bib1.bibx97" id="paren.17"/>. The subducted alkalinity may re-emerge at the surface only much later and far from the deployment site,  leading to delayed carbon uptake <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx14" id="paren.18"/>. Third, the reduction in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M25" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> caused by OAE will also reduce oceanic and terrestrial <inline-formula><mml:math id="M26" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> uptake, which in turn feeds back on atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M27" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and reduces efficiency <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx85 bib1.bibx53" id="paren.19"/>. Similarly, ocean-internal biogeochemical feedbacks, mostly through calcifying organisms, can influence efficiency <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx62" id="paren.20"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e483">To date, most modelling studies on OAE efficiency have used simplified Earth system models or forced ocean-only configurations <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx92 bib1.bibx46 bib1.bibx71 bib1.bibx97 bib1.bibx64" id="paren.21"/>. Many of these studies prescribe atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M28" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, thereby neglecting changes in oceanic and terrestrial carbon uptake that would result from OAE-induced reductions in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M29" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, or they focus only on relatively short timescales (decadal to multi-decadal). However, simulations with fully coupled, emission-driven Earth system models are essential to capture the full carbon cycle response, especially over multi-centennial time scales, and its dependence on the background climate state and emissions pathways <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx29 bib1.bibx77 bib1.bibx85 bib1.bibx62 bib1.bibx91" id="paren.22"/>. Recently, more fully coupled modelling studies have become available, although the complexity of the models differs. They consistently show that interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, and land biosphere strongly reduce OAE efficiency compared to modelling experiments with prescribed atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M30" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx53 bib1.bibx85 bib1.bibx91 bib1.bibx95 bib1.bibx84 bib1.bibx72" id="paren.23"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e530">Another key knowledge gap concerns the potential of OAE to mitigate ocean acidification, often discussed as a valuable co-benefit of OAE <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx4" id="paren.24"/>. Global OAE simulations with other Earth system models indicate a reduction in global and regional ocean acidification <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx49 bib1.bibx28 bib1.bibx68 bib1.bibx54" id="paren.25"/>, and local real-world experiments show that OAE can enhance pH and support calcification in vulnerable ecosystems such as coral reefs <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx2" id="paren.26"/>. However, the magnitude and persistence of OAE-induced pH changes, both globally and regionally, remain uncertain, as previous studies rely on theoretical concepts <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx93" id="paren.27"/> or simplified, coarse-resolution models <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx49 bib1.bibx54 bib1.bibx30" id="paren.28"/>. As with OAE efficiency, addressing these uncertainties requires comprehensive Earth system models capable of capturing global carbon cycle feedbacks <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx16 bib1.bibx5" id="paren.29"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e552">In this study, we investigate multiple OAE efficiency metrics and assess the OAE-induced carbon cycle, climate and ocean acidification responses under multi-centennial global warming stabilization scenarios using a comprehensive fully coupled Earth system model. We first describe the model setup and simulation scenarios, followed by the definition of efficiency metrics and the processes governing pH changes. We then assess the climate and carbon cycle response, the temporal and spatial evolution of OAE efficiencies, and the ocean acidification mitigation potential. Finally, we discuss our findings and place it in the context of existing literature.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2">
  <label>2</label><title>Methods</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS1">
  <label>2.1</label><title>GFDL ESM2M model</title>
      <p id="d2e570">This study uses the fully-coupled GFDL-ESM2M Earth system model developed at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx21 bib1.bibx22" id="paren.30"/>.  The individual components of the model are the modular ocean model version MOM4p1 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx42" id="paren.31"/>, the atmospheric model version AM2 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx3" id="paren.32"/>, the land model version LM3 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx87" id="paren.33"/> and the sea-ice model from <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx96" id="text.34"/>.  The atmosphere and land components have a horizontal resolution of 2° <inline-formula><mml:math id="M31" display="inline"><mml:mo>×</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 2.5°.  The ocean model has a horizontal resolution of 1°, which increases to 0.3° near the equator.  It has 50 vertical levels, with a layer thickness of 10 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M32" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the upper 200 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M33" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> gradually increasing to 300 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M34" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> at greater depths.  Additionally, the ocean model is coupled to the biogeochemistry model TOPAZv2, which simulates 30 biogeochemical tracers to represent cycling of carbon and alkalinity, as well as active pelagic calcite and aragonite and their sediment interaction <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22" id="paren.35"/>.  Three phytoplankton groups and implicit zooplankton grazing actively influence the production and remineralisation of carbon and alkalinity.  Pelagic calcite and aragonite production depends on the respective saturation state and the associated detritus sinks through the water column and can be dissolved or deposited in the sediments, from where it can either be stored or redissolved.  Ocean carbonate chemistry follows routines from the OCMIP2 protocol <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx73" id="paren.36"/>.  The land model simulates the cycling of carbon, including different vegetation types, soils, wildfires and harvesting.</p>
      <p id="d2e626">The model has been shown to perform well in representing the global carbon cycle <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22 bib1.bibx7 bib1.bibx39 bib1.bibx86 bib1.bibx13" id="paren.37"/>.  It simulates the uptake and storage of anthropogenic carbon by the marine and terrestrial carbon sinks close to observations <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39 bib1.bibx11" id="paren.38"/>, and it represents alkalinity well by actively simulating both calcite and aragonite cycling in comparison to other climate models <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx78" id="paren.39"/>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS2">
  <label>2.2</label><title>Simulations setup</title>
      <p id="d2e646">A set of different model simulations with and without ocean alkalinity enhancement were performed for this study (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F1"/>). After an initial spin-up <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx12" id="paren.40"/>, an emission-driven historical simulation was performed over the period 1861 to 2005, which follows fossil fuel and land-use change <inline-formula><mml:math id="M35" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions as well as prescribed non-<inline-formula><mml:math id="M36" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> radiative forcing agents from the CMIP5 protocol.  This simulation was continued for 20 simulation years in which fossil fuel <inline-formula><mml:math id="M37" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions followed observed emissions until 2020 and national determined contributions until 2025 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx34 bib1.bibx88" id="paren.41"/>.  From 2026 on, the adaptive emission reduction approach (AERA) was applied to reach a specified global warming level.  The AERA algorithm determines the emissions pathway by estimating anthropogenic warming, calculating the forcing-equivalent remaining emissions budget for the prescribed warming target using the transient climate response to cumulative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M38" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>-forcing-equivalent emissions (TCRE-fe), and then distributing the forcing-equivalent emissions budget over future years according to a third-order polynomial that leads to zero emissions.  The timing of net-zero emissions, and thus the time window for reaching the target temperature, is an emergent property of the algorithm rather than an externally imposed constraint.  If temperatures overshoot, the AERA responds by prescribing negative emissions.  The pathway is recalculated every 5 years based on updated estimates of global mean temperature and the remaining <inline-formula><mml:math id="M39" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>-forcing-equivalent emission budget at the time of the stocktake <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx90" id="paren.42"/>.  Three target warming levels of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M40" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> above pre-industrial were chosen to cover a range of possible global warming scenarios.  These simulations were run until 2500 to investigate changes on multi-centennial timescales under temperature stabilization (labelled as “Ref” in figures).  Non-<inline-formula><mml:math id="M41" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> radiative forcing agents and land-use change were following the RCP2.6 scenario after 2005 in all future warming simulations and are kept constant after 2100 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx88" id="paren.43"/>.</p>

      <fig id="F1" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 1</label><caption><p id="d2e743">Schematic overview of all simulations conducted in this study. All simulations are branched in 2026 from simulations that follow historical fossil fuel and land-use change <inline-formula><mml:math id="M42" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions along with other non-<inline-formula><mml:math id="M43" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> radiative forcing agents. The reference simulations (Ref) stabilize global surface air temperature at 1.5, 2 and 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M44" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> following the adaptive emission reduction approach and have no ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE). Corresponding OAE simulations follow the same emission pathways that would lead to stabilization, but include alkalinity enhancement. An additional 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M45" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reference simulation (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M46" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) follows prescribed atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M47" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> from the OAE 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M48" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> simulation, but without OAE. Each configuration is run with 5 ensemble members each. All these simulations are run until 2500. Additionally, one member of the set of 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M49" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> simulations is extended until 3000, but with OAE termination in 2500.</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f01.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d2e837">The Ocean Alkalinity Enhancement (OAE) experiments follow the same <inline-formula><mml:math id="M50" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emission and non-<inline-formula><mml:math id="M51" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> forcing pathways as the reference simulations (labelled as “OAE” in figures).  OAE is implemented following the protocol defined by the Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project (CDRMIP) <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx58" id="paren.44"/>.  Additional <inline-formula><mml:math id="M52" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions due to the OAE intervention, associated with the mining, processing, and transport of alkaline materials or solutions <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx32" id="paren.45"/>, are not included in this study.  A total of 0.14 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M53" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Pmol</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">yr</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of alkalinity is continuously and homogeneously added to the global surface ocean, excluding regions south of 60° S and north of 70° N, as they are seasonally sea-ice covered and therefore a year-round input of alkalinity to the surface ocean may not be possible.  Although this magnitude and spatial distribution of alkalinity input is unlikely to be achievable with current or near-future societal means <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx24" id="paren.46"/>, it provides a useful framework for exploring impacts of global-scale OAE and facilitates comparison with other model-based studies using the same framework <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx58 bib1.bibx59 bib1.bibx79 bib1.bibx95" id="paren.47"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e904">Following the approach of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx85" id="text.48"/>, we perform a third set of simulations to assess feedback processes that influence the efficiency of OAE (labelled as “<inline-formula><mml:math id="M54" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>” in figures).  These simulations are driven by prescribed atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M55" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations from the “OAE” run (which are lower than in the REF run) and therefore simulate the same climate trajectory as the “OAE” simulations, but without the addition of the alkalinity.  The non-<inline-formula><mml:math id="M56" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> forcing is the same as in the OAE and Ref simulations.  The simulations thus exclude any additional atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M57" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> removal by the ocean due to OAE.  These additional simulations help to isolate the OAE effect by removing global carbon feedback processes.  We conducted those simulations only for the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M58" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> warming level, as it is sufficient to illustrate the relevant processes, which can be generalized to other warming levels.</p>
      <p id="d2e965">For all scenarios, we have conducted a five-member perturbed initial-condition ensemble. An initial-condition ensemble enables the separation of the forced climate response from uncertainties arising from natural internal variability <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx37 bib1.bibx18" id="paren.49"/>.  We set up the ensembles with a sea surface temperature perturbation on the order of 10<sup>−5</sup> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M60" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> at one grid point in the Weddell Sea on 1 January 1861 <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx12 bib1.bibx41" id="paren.50"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e996">To investigate the effect of OAE termination on both the efficiencies and the ocean acidification response, we extended one ensemble member of the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M61" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> OAE simulations to the year 3000, but terminating OAE in 2500, and extended both reference simulations as well.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS3">
  <label>2.3</label><title>Definitions of OAE efficiencies</title>
      <p id="d2e1017">Several complementary metrics can be used to assess OAE efficiency, each capturing different aspects. These metrics are explained in the following and illustrated, along with the associated carbon fluxes, in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F2"/>.</p>

      <fig id="F2" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 2</label><caption><p id="d2e1024">Schematic illustration of OAE efficiency metrics and associated carbon transfer of adding, for example, 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M62" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">mol</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of alkalinity to the surface ocean. The carbon transfer per added alkalinity are the ensemble average of the first 100 years in the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M63" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> simulation. The metrics include maximum ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M64" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>max</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, net ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M65" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>net</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, gross ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M66" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>gross</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and net atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M67" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>-reduction <inline-formula><mml:math id="M68" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">a</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>net</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f02.png"/>

        </fig>

<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS3.SSS1">
  <label>2.3.1</label><title>Maximum ocean capture efficiency</title>
      <p id="d2e1134">The maximum ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M69" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>max</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of OAE is derived purely from the carbonate chemistry of seawater.  It represents the change in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) resulting from the addition of alkalinity (ALK), assuming the oceanic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M70" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> fully re-equilibrates to the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M71" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> before alkalinity addition and is calculated at the ocean surface <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx33 bib1.bibx80 bib1.bibx92" id="paren.51"/>.  It can be expressed as the ratio of the sensitivity of the seawater partial pressure of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M72" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M73" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) to changes in alkalinity versus its sensitivity to changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC):

              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E1" content-type="numbered"><label>1</label><mml:math id="M74" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>max</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mtext>ALK</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo mathsize="2.0em">/</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:mo>∂</mml:mo><mml:mtext>DIC</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e1264">We use MOCSY to calculate sensitivities of the oceans' <inline-formula><mml:math id="M75" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to dissolved inorganic carbon and alkalinity with units of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M76" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">atm</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">mol</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup><mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx75" id="paren.52"/>.  A <inline-formula><mml:math id="M77" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>max</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> value of 0.8 indicates that an addition of 1 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M78" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">mol</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> of alkalinity can potentially increase ocean carbon content by 0.8 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M79" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">mol</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">kg</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS3.SSS2">
  <label>2.3.2</label><title>Net ocean capture efficiency</title>
      <p id="d2e1375">We quantify the net ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M80" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>net</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, which accounts for both the ocean's feedback to the OAE-induced reduction of atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M81" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and the horizontal and vertical redistribution of added alkalinity by physical ocean processes before full equilibration with the atmosphere <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx85" id="paren.53"/>.  The atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M82" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is also influenced by the land carbon feedback (i.e. reduced terrestrial <inline-formula><mml:math id="M83" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> uptake due to lower atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M84" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), buffering part of the OAE-induced reduction in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M85" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx56 bib1.bibx57" id="paren.54"/>.  The net ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M86" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>net</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is defined as the ratio of the change in air–sea <inline-formula><mml:math id="M87" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> flux to the amount of alkalinity added:

              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E2" content-type="numbered"><label>2</label><mml:math id="M88" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>net</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>F</mml:mi><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>OAE</mml:mtext></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>F</mml:mi><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>F</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ALK</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>

            Here, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M89" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>F</mml:mi><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> refers to the air–sea <inline-formula><mml:math id="M90" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> flux in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M91" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Pmol</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">yr</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. The numerator represents the additional <inline-formula><mml:math id="M92" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> uptake by the ocean in the “OAE” simulation relative to the reference simulation “Ref”, both following the same emissions trajectory.  <inline-formula><mml:math id="M93" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>F</mml:mi><mml:mtext>ALK</mml:mtext></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> denotes the rate of alkalinity addition of 0.14 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M94" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Pmol</mml:mi><mml:mspace linebreak="nobreak" width="0.125em"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">yr</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.  Efficiencies are calculated for each ensemble member individually and are based on annual mean carbon fluxes.  Different to how net efficiency is defined here, this term sometimes also refers to the OAE efficiency including life-cycle emissions <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx32 bib1.bibx17 bib1.bibx55" id="paren.55"/>.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS3.SSS3">
  <label>2.3.3</label><title>Gross ocean capture efficiency</title>
      <p id="d2e1629">To quantify the carbon flux resulting solely from alkalinity addition and the redistribution of added alkalinity by physical ocean processes before equilibration with the atmosphere, excluding the ocean and land carbon feedbacks in response to the OAE-induced reduction of atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M95" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, we define the gross ocean capture efficiency, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M96" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>gross</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>
<xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx85 bib1.bibx97 bib1.bibx91" id="paren.56"/>:

              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E3" content-type="numbered"><label>3</label><mml:math id="M97" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>gross</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>F</mml:mi><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">OAE</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>F</mml:mi><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>F</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ALK</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e1716">It is calculated by subtracting the air–sea <inline-formula><mml:math id="M98" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> flux of the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M99" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> simulation from that of the OAE simulation, and dividing the result by the amount of alkalinity added in the OAE simulation. The <inline-formula><mml:math id="M100" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> simulation shares the same climate state as the OAE simulation, but oceanic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M101" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> uptake is not driven by OAE. The difference between the OAE and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M102" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> simulations eliminates the natural carbon fluxes and feedback processes between reservoirs, thereby leaving the total additional ocean carbon uptake due to OAE.  We did an extra experiment to verify that this additional ocean carbon uptake leads to the same reduction in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M103" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> as direct air capture (Appendix <xref ref-type="sec" rid="App1.Ch1.S1"/>) and it therefore represents negative emissions.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS3.SSS4">
  <label>2.3.4</label><title>Net atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M104" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reduction efficiency</title>
      <p id="d2e1808">The fourth efficiency metric used in this study is the net atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M105" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reduction efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M106" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">a</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>net</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>:

              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E4" content-type="numbered"><label>4</label><mml:math id="M107" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">a</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>net</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">OAE</mml:mi></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>F</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ALK</mml:mi></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e1888">It describes the difference between the change in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M108" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> inventory per year (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M109" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M110" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Pmol</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">yr</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) between the OAE simulation and the Ref simulation divided by the yearly addition of alkalinity <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx53 bib1.bibx91" id="paren.57"/>. This metric describes the potential of OAE to reduce atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M111" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and thereby influence global warming.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS4">
  <label>2.4</label><title>Drivers of ocean acidification mitigation</title>
      <p id="d2e1957">Three processes drive the total pH response to OAE: reduction in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M112" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, the pH change at the new <inline-formula><mml:math id="M113" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> equilibrium, and the remaining <inline-formula><mml:math id="M114" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> disequilibrium:

            <disp-formula id="Ch1.E5" content-type="numbered"><label>5</label><mml:math id="M115" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>total</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>≃</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>CDR</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>equilibrated</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>disequilibrium</mml:mtext></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e2036">The three processes are described in the following.</p>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS4.SSS1">
  <label>2.4.1</label><title>Reduction in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M116" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></title>
      <p id="d2e2057">Any CDR method that lowers atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M117" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, being terrestrial or marine, mitigates ocean acidification, as seawater loses carbon when equilibrating to the lowered atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M118" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. This CDR-driven pH increase can be quantified using the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M119" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>-simulation, which follows the atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M120" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trajectory of the OAE simulation, but excludes alkalinity addition. The resulting pH difference relative to the Ref-simulation represents the pH change due to CDR:

              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E6" content-type="numbered"><label>6</label><mml:math id="M121" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>CDR</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:msup><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>Ref</mml:mtext></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS4.SSS2">
  <label>2.4.2</label><title>Equilibrated pH response</title>
      <p id="d2e2144">The sensitivities of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M122" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and pH to changes in dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and total alkalinity differ. When oceanic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M123" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is lowered through alkalinity addition and subsequently returns to the original value through air–sea carbon uptake, both alkalinity and DIC are higher than before alkalinity addition. As a result, the pH is higher than before the intervention. We refer to this as the “pH-equilibrated” effect, where identical <inline-formula><mml:math id="M124" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> levels correspond to different carbonate system and pH states before and after alkalinity addition. Research about the ecosystem impact of OAE often distinguishes between equilibrated and un-equilibrated OAE <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx45" id="paren.58"/>. Equilibrated OAE assumes that the alkaline solution added to the ocean has already re-equilibrated with the atmosphere and taken up <inline-formula><mml:math id="M125" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> according to the maximum ocean capture efficiency, characterized by the equilibrated pH response. Un-equilibrated OAE assumes that <inline-formula><mml:math id="M126" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is not yet back to equilibrium with the atmosphere, and the pH response is here characterized by the equilibrated pH response together with the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M127" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> disequilibrium effect (described below). The contribution of the equilibrated pH response can be estimated from the ocean carbonate system and the alkalinity perturbation relative to the reference state (full derivation in Appendix <xref ref-type="sec" rid="App1.Ch1.S2"/>):

              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E7" content-type="numbered"><label>7</label><mml:math id="M128" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>equilibrated</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>≃</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>max</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mtext>ALK</mml:mtext></mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ALK</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mi>ln⁡</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S2.SS4.SSS3">
  <label>2.4.3</label><title><inline-formula><mml:math id="M129" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> disequilibrium</title>
      <p id="d2e2301">During oceanic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M130" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> equilibration with the atmosphere after alkalinity addition, the temporarily lower <inline-formula><mml:math id="M131" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in seawater leads to an increase in pH.  We can quantify this contribution by manipulating the ocean carbonate system offline.  We use the oceanic conditions from the OAE simulation (i.e. alkalinity, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M132" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, temperature, salinity, phosphate and silicate concentrations), where <inline-formula><mml:math id="M133" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in the ocean remains depressed because re-equilibration with the atmosphere is incomplete. The offset in oceanic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M134" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is calculated as the difference between the OAE and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M135" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>-simulation: <inline-formula><mml:math id="M136" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">OAE</mml:mi></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, which isolates the effect of alkalinity addition since both simulations share the same atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M137" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.  We then recompute the carbonate system for OAE conditions but add <inline-formula><mml:math id="M138" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>p</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula><inline-formula><mml:math id="M139" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to restore full air–sea equilibrium using the pyCO2SYS package <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx48" id="paren.59"/>.  This yields the carbonate system state after equilibration (i.e., when <inline-formula><mml:math id="M140" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>).  The pH change associated with the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M141" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> disequilibrium is then given by:

              <disp-formula id="Ch1.E8" content-type="numbered"><label>8</label><mml:math id="M142" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>Disequilibrium</mml:mtext></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>OAE</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>OAE</mml:mtext><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
</sec>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3">
  <label>3</label><title>Results</title>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS1">
  <label>3.1</label><title>Atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M143" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and global temperature response</title>
      <p id="d2e2561">In the Ref simulations without OAE, global surface air temperature stabilizes at the prescribed global warming levels (solid lines in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3"/>a).  In each case, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M144" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions decline to zero and subsequently become slightly negative (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC1"/>), which is required to maintain the stabilized warming levels through the year 2500, as the GFDL-ESM2M model has a positive zero emission commitment on multi-centennial timescales <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx38 bib1.bibx36 bib1.bibx88" id="paren.60"/>. The 31 year mean atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M145" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration peaks at 484 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M146" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ppm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [455–504] in 2074 [2052–2102] in the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M147" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario, at 573 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M148" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ppm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [551–589] in 2096 [2081–2112] in the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M149" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario and at 758 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M150" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ppm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [742–777] in 2176 [2164–2186] in the 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M151" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3"/>b). Thereafter, atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M152" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> decreases due to the continuous uptake of carbon by the terrestrial biosphere and predominately by the ocean.</p>

      <fig id="F3" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 3</label><caption><p id="d2e2664">Global surface air temperature anomalies <bold>(a)</bold> and atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M153" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <bold>(b)</bold> over 1861 to 2500 under three different global warming stabilization scenarios with and without OAE. Red lines show the 1861–2025 historical period. Solid lines are the reference simulation (Ref) and dashed lines are simulations with ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE). All lines are ensemble and 31 year running means, while the shading represents the ensemble range.</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f03.png"/>

        </fig>

      <fig id="F4" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 4</label><caption><p id="d2e2693">Difference in annual mean atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M154" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <bold>(a–c)</bold> and global surface air temperature <bold>(d–f)</bold> between the ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and reference (Ref) simulations over time for the three global warming stabilization scenarios 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M155" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <bold>(a, d)</bold>, 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M156" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <bold>(b, e)</bold> and 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M157" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <bold>(c, f)</bold>. All lines are ensemble and 31 year running means, while the shading represents the ensemble range. Dashed black lines in <bold>(d–f)</bold> show the linear trend and its estimates are noted.</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f04.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d2e2762">In the OAE simulations, the continuous addition of alkalinity to the surface ocean causes additional carbon uptake from the atmosphere and reduces atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M158" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations compared to the reference simulations without OAE (dashed lines in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3"/>b).  The 31 year mean peak atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M159" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is lower and earlier with OAE than without on the ensemble average, albeit with overlapping ensemble ranges: at 468 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M160" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ppm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [437–488] in year 2059 [2041–2088] in the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M161" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario, at 546 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M162" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ppm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [524–560] in year 2085 [2076–2097] in the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M163" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario and at 689 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M164" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ppm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [677–708] in year 2167 [2158–2178] in the 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M165" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario. The decrease in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M166" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> increases with the amount of global warming. Atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M167" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations are 73 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M168" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ppm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [72–74] lower in the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M169" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario, 88 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M170" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ppm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [86–88] lower in the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M171" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario, and 130 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M172" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ppm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [130–131] lower in the 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M173" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario relative to their respective reference simulations between 2470 and 2500 (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4"/>a–c). The greatest reductions occur within the first 100 (1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M174" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario) to 200 (3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M175" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario) years following the start of alkalinity addition (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4"/>a–c), after which the differences increase less towards the end of the simulations (explained in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S3.SS3"/>).</p>
      <p id="d2e2948">The reduction in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M176" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> under OAE reduces global surface air temperature relative to the reference scenarios (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F3"/>a). Global surface air temperature is 0.64 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M177" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [0.57–0.71] lower in the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M178" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario, 0.75 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M179" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [0.68–0.80] lower in the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M180" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario, and 0.79 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M181" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [0.65–0.96] lower in the 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M182" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario compared to their respective references between 2470 and 2500. Unlike atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M183" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations, which showed the largest differences developing shortly after alkalinity addition, the surface temperature difference increases approximately linearly throughout the simulation in all scenarios (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4"/>d–f). In the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M184" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario, the global surface air temperature decreases linearly by <inline-formula><mml:math id="M185" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.16 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M186" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> per century [<inline-formula><mml:math id="M187" display="inline"><mml:mo lspace="0mm">-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.15 to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M188" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.17].  The temperature trend is slightly lower for the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M189" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario with a cooling of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M190" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.14 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M191" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> per century [<inline-formula><mml:math id="M192" display="inline"><mml:mo lspace="0mm">-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.13 to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M193" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.15] and largest in the 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M194" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario with <inline-formula><mml:math id="M195" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.17 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M196" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> per century [<inline-formula><mml:math id="M197" display="inline"><mml:mo lspace="0mm">-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.16 to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M198" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.19].  This near-linear trend reflects the logarithmic relationship between radiative forcing and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M199" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. Using the formulation of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx70" id="text.61"/>, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M200" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mi>F</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M201" display="inline"><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M202" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>5.35 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M203" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">W</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M204" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi>ln⁡</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow><mml:mo>/</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">OAE</mml:mi></mml:msubsup></mml:mrow><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, we estimate a near-linear reduction in radiative forcing of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M205" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.29 to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M206" display="inline"><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula>0.34 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M207" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">W</mml:mi><mml:mspace width="0.125em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> per century (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M208" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <inline-formula><mml:math id="M209" display="inline"><mml:mo>&gt;</mml:mo></mml:math></inline-formula> 0.95 for all scenarios) with a higher reduction in higher warming levels. The trends in radiative forcing show only small variations between scenarios, even though the reductions in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M210" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations due to OAE differ much more.  This is due to similar ratios of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M211" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> between the reference scenario and the OAE simulations across warming levels, but slightly higher for a warmer climate.  Consequently, the three scenarios exhibit comparable cooling trends despite their differing <inline-formula><mml:math id="M212" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> trajectories, although the exact temperature response may also be influenced by scenario-dependent climate feedbacks and ocean heat uptake.</p>
      <p id="d2e3333">The regional temperature response to global OAE deployment (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC2"/>a–c) closely mirrors the spatial pattern of greenhouse gas-induced warming (cf. Fig. 4.19 in <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx61" id="altparen.62"/>), but with the opposite sign. Cooling is strongest over continents and at high northern latitudes, and weaker over the ocean, particularly in the Southern Ocean. An exception to the overall cooling occurs in the northern North Atlantic, where a localized warming develops in the higher warming scenarios. This North Atlantic warming reflects an earlier and stronger recovery of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation under OAE, which enhances ocean heat transport into the region (not shown). This effect is most pronounced in the 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M213" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS2">
  <label>3.2</label><title>Global carbon flux response</title>
      <p id="d2e3359">Ocean alkalinity enhancement substantially increases the oceans' alkalinity inventory (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC3"/>). The added alkalinity in turn leads to additional ocean carbon uptake and lowers atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M214" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, but part of this drawdown is offset by carbon release from the land biosphere (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>).  In the reference simulations, the total cumulative ocean carbon uptake since pre-industrial increases rapidly initially with increasing <inline-formula><mml:math id="M215" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions and slows markedly toward the end of the simulation when emissions reach near-zero or become negative (solid blue lines in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>). OAE leads to a persistent additional increase in cumulative ocean carbon uptake relative to the reference scenario (dashed blue lines in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>). By year 2500, cumulative ocean carbon uptake is higher by 362 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M216" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PgC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [356–366], 380 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M217" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PgC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [377–383] and 407 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M218" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PgC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [403–412] in the 1.5, 2, and 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M219" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenarios, respectively. When feedbacks that redistribute carbon among reservoirs are neglected, the cumulative ocean uptake is substantially larger. In the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M220" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario, this gross cumulative ocean carbon uptake attributable to OAE (the difference between OAE and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M221" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) amounts to 628 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M222" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PgC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [625–632], approximately 65 % larger than the net uptake. This difference arises because reduced atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M223" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations due to OAE result in an anomalous outgassing of carbon stored in the ocean, thereby offsetting the gross ocean carbon uptake due to OAE. The reduction in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M224" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is modulated by anomalous carbon release from the land biosphere. Note that the historical carbon release from land is due to land-use change emissions, which dominate over the land carbon uptake due to increases in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M225" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx88" id="paren.63"/>. In the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M226" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario, this land carbon release totals 194 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M227" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PgC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [189–198], resulting in a net atmospheric carbon reduction of 189 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M228" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PgC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [185–192]. The land carbon response varies across warming levels. The net carbon release from land is largest in the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M229" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario at 209 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M230" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PgC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [196–218] and smallest in the 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M231" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario at 129 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M232" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PgC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [122–134]. Consequently and following the ocean carbon uptake, the net atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M233" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reduction is largest in the 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M234" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario (279 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M235" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PgC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [271–284]) and smallest in the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M236" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario (156 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M237" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">PgC</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> [149–164]).</p>

      <fig id="F5" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 5</label><caption><p id="d2e3606">Cumulative globally integrated carbon fluxes since pre-industrial for the atmosphere (red), land (green, including land-use changes), and ocean (blue), as well as fossil fuel <inline-formula><mml:math id="M238" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions (black) for the reference simulations (Ref), ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE) and the additional reference simulation (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M239" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) under the 1.5, 2 and 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M240" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <bold>(a–c)</bold> global warming scenarios. The dashed vertical black lines indicate the start year of OAE deployment. All lines show ensemble means and shading indicates the ensemble range.</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f05.png"/>

        </fig>

      <fig id="F6" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 6</label><caption><p id="d2e3652">Spatial maps of cumulative net carbon fluxes (difference between OAE and Ref simulation) from 2026 to 2500 for the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M241" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> warming scenario in <bold>(a)</bold> and the gross carbon fluxes (difference between OAE and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M242" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) in <bold>(b)</bold>. Positive indicates additional ocean carbon uptake. Colours show ensemble means and hatchings show differences that are not significant at the 95 % confidence level based on a two-sided Students <inline-formula><mml:math id="M243" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-test. Dashed black lines mark the regions north of 70° N and south of 60° S, where alkalinity addition is not applied.</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f06.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d2e3696">Regionally, OAE leads to enhanced cumulative net carbon uptake in most ocean regions (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6"/>a), with particularly strong uptake along western boundary currents and north of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. However, some regions become anomalous cumulative carbon sources over time (i.e., these regions lose carbon to the atmosphere relative to the reference simulation without OAE). Most notably, the Southern Ocean south of 60° S shows net outgassing, as no alkalinity is added in these regions and the lower atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M244" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> leads to anomalous outgassing. A similar signal emerges south of the eastern tropical Pacific. There, added alkalinity produces only a weak local reduction in ocean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M245" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> due to high buffer capacity and low accumulation of alkalinity, while atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M246" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is reduced more strongly by global OAE, leading to a negative air–sea <inline-formula><mml:math id="M247" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>-gradient and hence outgassing in these regions. The land biosphere exhibits widespread carbon loss, with strong spatial variability in magnitude (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6"/>a). The gross cumulative ocean carbon uptake attributable to OAE (difference between OAE and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M248" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) is positive everywhere (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6"/>b) and closely resembles the spatial pattern of cumulative anthropogenic carbon uptake <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx39" id="paren.64"/>. Spatial uptake patterns are relatively uniform during the first century but become increasingly heterogeneous over time. As the atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M249" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> levels in the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M250" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">REF</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and OAE simulations are identical, the land shows no significant changes in carbon fluxes (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F6"/>b).</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS3">
  <label>3.3</label><title>Ocean alkalinity enhancement efficiency</title>
      <p id="d2e3804">The simulated carbon cycle response and differences between warming levels relate to the efficiency of OAE.  The four metrics to assess the global efficiency of OAE (Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S2.SS3"/>) differ strongly in their absolute values, temporal evolution, and sensitivity to the global warming stabilization level and emission pathway (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7"/>). The maximum ocean capture efficiency at the surface, determined solely by the response of seawater carbonate chemistry to alkalinity addition, remains nearly constant over time and across the three warming levels at 0.81–0.86 (black lines in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7"/>). However, it increases slightly at higher atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M251" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, where the ocean buffer capacity is reduced (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC4"/>). At lower buffer capacities, the sensitivity of ocean <inline-formula><mml:math id="M252" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to changes in alkalinity increases relative to that with respect to dissolved inorganic carbon, allowing for an increased uptake of carbon to balance an alkalinity-induced reduction of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M253" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. As a result, efficiencies are slightly higher at peak atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M254" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and in the 3.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M255" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario compared to the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M256" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> case.</p>

      <fig id="F7" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 7</label><caption><p id="d2e3886">Annual efficiencies of ocean alkalinity enhancement for the three global warming stabilization scenarios 1.5, 2 and 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M257" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> <bold>(a–c)</bold>. Maximum ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M258" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>max</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in black, net ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M259" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>net</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in blue, net atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M260" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>-reduction <inline-formula><mml:math id="M261" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">a</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>net</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in red and gross ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M262" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>gross</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in green. Dashed vertical black lines indicate the ensemble average year of peak atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M263" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. All lines are ensemble and 31 year running means, while the shading represents the ensemble range.</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f07.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d2e3995">The net ocean capture efficiency, defined as the change in net air–sea <inline-formula><mml:math id="M264" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> flux per unit of alkalinity added, is consistently lower than the maximum efficiency and declines over time (blue lines in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7"/>). Before peak atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M265" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, efficiencies range between 0.64–0.68 with little variation between scenarios, but slightly higher in warmer scenarios. After the peak, they drop to 0.35–0.36 by 2400–2500, reflecting a gradual long-term decrease. This temporal decline is a result of four interacting processes that are qualitatively discussed: the redistribution of alkalinity within the ocean interior, changes in the ocean buffer capacity, carbon effluxes from the land biosphere and ocean internal changes of alkalinity and DIC by biological activity.  First, the added alkalinity undergoes vertical mixing and thereby, the volume in exchange with the atmosphere, over which the equilibration with the atmosphere occurs, increases steadily over time.  The larger the volume, the more old carbon-rich waters are being upwelled to the surface and see an atmosphere with reduced atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M266" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentration, resulting in anomalous outgassing to the atmosphere and hence lowering net ocean carbon uptake.  We use the effective mixed layer depth for OAE from <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx97" id="text.65"/>, characterizing the ocean volume under influence of alkalinity addition. Note that this is not the depth of the commonly used wind-driven mixed layer.  Scenarios show negligible differences in magnitude and temporal change in this volume, with the effective mixed layer depth increasing near-linearly from around 140 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M267" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in 2026 to about 1400 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M268" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in 2500 (not shown), leading to a steady decrease in efficiency.  Second, a low ocean buffer capacity means that the change in oceanic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M269" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> per change in dissolved inorganic carbon is large compared to the sensitivity of atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M270" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to the atmospheric carbon content.  In this case, a lot of carbon is taken up by the ocean until both systems equilibrate at an intermediate <inline-formula><mml:math id="M271" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and efficiency is high.  The buffer capacity is lower in the high warming scenarios and decreases before peak atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M272" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and increases afterwards in each scenario (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC4"/>).  As the timing of peak <inline-formula><mml:math id="M273" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> differs between scenarios, so does the influence of buffer capacity onto the efficiency.  Third, the reduction in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M274" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> by ocean carbon uptake is buffered by a relative efflux of carbon from the land biosphere.  This efflux increases atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M275" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and allows for more ocean carbon uptake until equilibrium is reached, increasing efficiency.  We find a steady increase in the cumulative land efflux over time and largest effluxes in the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M276" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario and lowest in the 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M277" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario (Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S3.SS2"/>).  The first three processes only occur with interactive atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M278" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and are the main drivers of the temporal changes in the net ocean capture efficiency.  Fourth, biological activity in the ocean, most prominently calcification, is depending on the ocean state, mostly pH <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx76" id="paren.66"/> and can influence OAE <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx62" id="paren.67"/>.  In our Earth system model, calcification responds to changes in the calcite and aragonite saturation states and we find more calcification under OAE than in the reference scenarios, leading to an overall reduction in additional alkalinity within the ocean (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC3"/>c). Calcification reduces DIC, allowing for further ocean carbon uptake and increasing efficiency, but also removes alkalinity and thereby decreases efficiency.  Overall, calcification leads to a net reduction in efficiency since calcification removes twice as much alkalinity as DIC, leaving a net increase in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M279" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>.  The first three effects dominate the temporal change in net ocean capture efficiency: Before peak atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M280" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, a decline in buffer capacity increases the efficiency of alkalinity-driven <inline-formula><mml:math id="M281" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> uptake. However, this gain is largely compensated by ocean outgassing across a larger ocean volume in response to lower atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M282" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, mediated by an additional carbon efflux from the land-biosphere. As a result, net ocean capture efficiency remains nearly constant. Afterwards, as the increase in buffer capacity now reduces efficiency as well, the efficiency generally decreases. The differences in buffer capacity and the land effluxes between warming scenarios balance each other in the long-term, resulting in similar efficiencies between scenarios around 2500.</p>
      <p id="d2e4231">The gross ocean capture efficiency is close to the maximum ocean capture efficiency, with a mean value of 0.79 [0.78–0.79] in the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M283" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario (green line in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7"/>b). It does not change significantly over time along the emission pathway. By definition, the gross efficiency isolates the direct oceanic response to alkalinity addition, excluding the effects of changes in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M284" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> due to changes in ocean and land carbon uptake. The gross efficiency is limited by incomplete equilibration following continuous OAE.</p>
      <p id="d2e4257">The net atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M285" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reduction efficiency is lower than the net ocean capture efficiency (red lines in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F7"/>), with pre-peak values of 0.52–0.60 with higher efficiencies in the higher warming levels. After peak atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M286" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, efficiencies decline to 0.11–0.12 between 2400 and 2500. The difference between atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M287" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reduction efficiency and the net ocean capture efficiency arises because the land biosphere releases carbon back to the atmosphere when atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M288" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> levels decline, with larger effluxes in the lower warming scenarios (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F5"/>). These effluxes are directly accounted for in the net atmospheric reduction efficiency, while also influencing the net ocean capture efficiency indirectly as described above. Variability across individual ensemble members in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M289" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reduction efficiency reflects the strong year-to-year variability in land-atmosphere carbon exchange.  The near-constant pre-peak efficiencies explain the near-linear reduction of atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M290" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> shown in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F4"/>, with a reducing decrease after peak atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M291" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> as the efficiency drops as well.</p>
      <p id="d2e4344">To assess the temporal evolution of efficiencies after OAE termination, we evaluate the cumulative efficiency, defined as total carbon uptake divided by total alkalinity addition, since the rate of alkalinity addition is zero after 2500 (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F8"/>). Our results show that the cumulative gross ocean capture efficiency remains below the maximum efficiency over the subsequent 500 years. A persistent ocean–atmosphere <inline-formula><mml:math id="M292" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> difference of approximately 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M293" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">atm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> after OAE termination (not shown) indicates that full equilibration has not yet been achieved. While surface waters continue to equilibrate, previously subducted alkalinity resurfaces through upwelling and mixing, allowing unrealized alkalinity potential to further reduce oceanic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M294" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. In contrast, the cumulative net ocean capture efficiency continues to decrease, as the ocean begins to outgas <inline-formula><mml:math id="M295" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in response to lower atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M296" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations. Upwelled waters, no longer supported by ongoing alkalinity addition, equilibrate with the reduced atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M297" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and release carbon. This drives a redistribution of carbon among reservoirs, with the land biosphere taking up carbon again relative to the reference simulation. The net atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M298" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reduction efficiency decreases further but begins to stabilize, indicating a balance of ocean and land carbon fluxes or a convergence toward a new steady-state carbon balance.</p>

      <fig id="F8"><label>Figure 8</label><caption><p id="d2e4432">Cumulative efficiencies of ocean alkalinity enhancement; maximum ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M299" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>max</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in black, net ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M300" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>net</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in blue, net atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M301" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>-reduction <inline-formula><mml:math id="M302" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">a</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>net</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in red and gross ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M303" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>gross</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in green for 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M304" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> global warming stabilization simulations including the first ensemble member that has been extended until year 3000. All lines are ensemble and 31 year running means, while the shading represents the ensemble spread. OAE termination for the first ensemble member after 2500 is marked with the vertical dashed line.</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f08.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d2e4527">Regional differences in maximum ocean capture efficiency at the surface reflect the sensitivity of surface <inline-formula><mml:math id="M305" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to alkalinity relative to dissolved inorganic carbon, which is lowest in the tropics and highest at high latitudes (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC5"/>a). This is consistent with regional differences in the buffer capacity <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx23" id="paren.68"/>. In some regions such as the North Atlantic, North Pacific and parts of the Southern Ocean, gross uptake efficiency locally exceeds the theoretical maximum expected from surface alkalinity addition alone (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC5"/>b). This is due to lateral redistribution of un-equilibrated alkalinity by ocean circulation, which adds local carbon uptake potential and explains the larger than maximum efficiency. Additionally, these regions exhibit higher gas transfer velocities <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx98" id="paren.69"/>. Therefore, less un-equilibrated alkalinity is transported away from these regions, while incoming un-equilibrated alkalinity can equilibrate faster locally.  However, <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx97" id="text.70"/> show no specifically high efficiency in these regions when alkalinity is only added within the region itself, and <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx14" id="text.71"/> find a strongly increased efficiency in these regions due to resurfacing of alkalinity that was added below the surface in other regions, both indicating that the redistribution of un-equilibrated alkalinity is the dominant process.</p>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S3.SS4">
  <label>3.4</label><title>Ocean acidification response</title>
      <p id="d2e4569">The addition of alkalinity leads to a pronounced increase in global mean ocean surface pH relative to the reference scenarios (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F9"/>a). In the absence of alkalinity enhancement (Reference scenarios), global mean surface pH initially declines and subsequently recovers during the global warming stabilization phase, reflecting the initial rise and later decline in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M306" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. In the OAE scenarios, global mean surface pH during the period 2470 to 2500 is elevated relative to the reference scenario by 0.105 [0.103–0.106] in the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M307" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario, 0.111 [0.109–0.112] in the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M308" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and 0.124 [0.123–0.126] in the 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M309" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F9"/>b). Under the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M310" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario, this increase is sufficient to raise global mean surface pH above pre-industrial levels, thereby fully reversing historical surface ocean acidification. The temporal evolution of surface pH closely follows that of atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M311" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, with the largest pH changes occurring in the high-warming scenario, where OAE leads to the strongest atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M312" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> drawdown. This is also evident at the regional scale. All regions experience increases in surface pH due to OAE, with slightly larger changes in the 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M313" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario compared to the lower warming scenarios (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC2"/>d–f).</p>

      <fig id="F9" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 9</label><caption><p id="d2e4664">Global ocean surface pH in <bold>(a)</bold>, global surface pH change due to OAE in <bold>(b)</bold> and contributions to the total global surface pH change due to OAE in <bold>(c)</bold>. Panel <bold>(b)</bold> shows pH differences between OAE and reference simulations as well as the contribution of the CDR effect. Panel <bold>(c)</bold> shows the relative contributions from CDR, pH-equilibrated, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M314" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> disequilibrium and residual to the total pH change between OAE and the reference 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M315" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> simulation. In all panels ensemble means until 2500 are shown and then OAE termination in 2500 for one ensemble member in the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M316" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario. Shading in <bold>(a)</bold> and <bold>(b)</bold> indicates the ensemble range. Dashed vertical grey lines indicate the timing of OAE termination at year 2500.</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f09.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d2e4728">The increase in global surface pH is primarily driven by the reduction in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M317" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, with smaller additional contributions from OAE-specific direct chemical effects, such as the equilibrated pH response and transient <inline-formula><mml:math id="M318" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> disequilibrium (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F9"/>c; see Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S2.SS4"/> for further details on the method). In 2100 in the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M319" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> global warming scenario, the combined direct chemical effects of OAE account for about 48 % of the total additional pH increase. Over time, the ocean–atmosphere system progressively equilibrates, and the contribution from atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M320" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> drawdown becomes increasingly dominant, while both direct chemical effects diminish. Averaged over 2470 to 2500, approximately 72 % of the total global surface pH increase can be attributed to reduced atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M321" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, 17 % due to equilibrated pH response and 9 % due to remaining <inline-formula><mml:math id="M322" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> disequilibrium. The residual is a result of approximations in calculating the three contributions.</p>
      <p id="d2e4806">Following OAE termination in 2500, the pH difference between the OAE simulation and reference simulation gradually declines (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F9"/>b), resulting in a remaining pH response of 0.071 in the year 3000. This reduction in OA mitigation is initially dominated by a decrease in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M323" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> disequilibrium (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F9"/>c), as surface waters continue to equilibrate in the decades following termination. However, ongoing upwelling and mixing of previously subducted alkalinity continue to lower oceanic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M324" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, maintaining a nearly constant <inline-formula><mml:math id="M325" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> offset of around 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M326" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">µ</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">atm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> between the OAE and Ref<sup>∗</sup> simulations. Consequently, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M328" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> disequilibrium still explains 2 % of the total pH change 500 years after OAE termination. The contribution of the equilibrated pH response also decreases after 2500, reflecting the declining surface alkalinity difference between the OAE and reference simulations, and accounts for approximately 7 % of the pH response in the year 3000. In contrast, while the carbon dioxide removal effect weakens after OAE termination (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F9"/>b), its relative importance increases, explaining about 88 % of OA mitigation by the year 3000. This weakening of the CDR effect is due to continued outgassing of oceanic <inline-formula><mml:math id="M329" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> after OAE termination, driving an increase in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M330" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and a decrease in surface ocean pH.</p>

      <fig id="F10" specific-use="star"><label>Figure 10</label><caption><p id="d2e4911">Hovmoeller plots of pH differences due to OAE over depth and time for the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M331" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario. The total pH change in <bold>(a)</bold>, the pH response to CDR in <bold>(b)</bold> and the sum of the pH-equilibrated and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M332" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> disequilibrium effects in <bold>(c)</bold>. All plots show the global horizontal averages, ensemble means until 2500 and the first ensemble member with OAE termination after 2500 (vertical dashed line). Note the irregular <inline-formula><mml:math id="M333" display="inline"><mml:mi>y</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-axis, with a break at 1000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M334" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> depth.</p></caption>
          <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f10.png"/>

        </fig>

      <p id="d2e4968">In the subsurface ocean, the largest global mean ocean acidification mitigation from OAE is simulated at a depth of around 250 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M335" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, with a maximum pH increase of 0.137 [0.135–0.139] by year 2500 in the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M336" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F10"/>a). As at the surface, the subsurface pH mitigation response is larger in the 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M337" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario and smaller in the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M338" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario (not shown). The subsurface maximum reflects the competing effects of two opposing vertical gradients: the OAE-induced alkalinity enhancement and associated DIC reduction weakens with depth, whereas the sensitivity of pH to changes in alkalinity and DIC increases with depth. Their combined effect yields a maximum pH response below the surface. Similar subsurface maxima have also been reported for historical ocean acidification <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx27 bib1.bibx69" id="paren.72"/>.  Consistent with the surface response, the direct chemical effects of OAE (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F10"/>c) contribute substantially early on, while the CDR effect becomes increasingly dominant over time (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="F10"/>b). In 2100, the CDR effect explains 54 % of the total interior pH change, with the direct chemical effects accounting for the remaining 46 %. By 2500, the CDR contribution increases to 69 %. After OAE termination in 2500, the total subsurface pH mitigation gradually declines and the relative contribution of the CDR effect increases to 74 % by the year 3000. Below 1000 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M339" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">m</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, however, pH mitigation continues to increase despite the OAE termination, because ongoing ocean ventilation progressively propagates the accumulated pH deficit into the deep ocean on multi-centennial timescales.</p>
</sec>
</sec>
<sec id="Ch1.S4" sec-type="conclusions">
  <label>4</label><title>Discussion and conclusion</title>
      <p id="d2e5037">In this study, we assess the efficiency of ocean alkalinity enhancement (OAE), along with its associated climate response and potential to mitigate ocean acidification, under different global warming stabilization scenarios using an emission-driven, comprehensive Earth system model.</p>
      <p id="d2e5040">We find that the global mean surface temperature decreases approximately linearly with continued alkalinity addition, and that the cooling per unit alkalinity added is similar across the three global warming stabilization scenarios. A comparable near-linear temperature response has also been reported by <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx64" id="text.73"/>.  This suggests that a given amount of alkalinity produces roughly the same cooling effect under both low- and high-warming conditions. Because cumulative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M340" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> removal also increases nearly linearly over time, due to an approximately constant, scenario-independent gross ocean capture efficiency, our results imply an approximately linear transient climate response to removal (TCRR) over the range of warming levels explored here (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC6"/>) <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx65 bib1.bibx99 bib1.bibx25" id="paren.74"/>. This means that OAE-induced <inline-formula><mml:math id="M341" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> removal, diagnosed from gross ocean carbon capture, can be readily incorporated into the well-established TCRE-based framework for estimating remaining carbon budgets consistent with specific temperature targets <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx82 bib1.bibx66" id="paren.75"/>. The near-linearity of the temperature response also indicates that, for OAE, a CDR-tax framework <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx10" id="paren.76"/> to capture strong state-dependent changes in effectiveness may not be necessary, since the temperature response per unit addition of alkalinity remains approximately constant across the warming levels considered. Nevertheless, the robustness of this result remains to be tested across other Earth system models and experimental setups, such as carbon and/or temperature overshoot scenarios.</p>
      <p id="d2e5081">The definition of OAE efficiency strongly influences both its interpretation and policy relevance, as different metrics capture distinct aspects of ocean alkalinity enhancement. The maximum ocean capture efficiency varies between 0.81 and 0.86 when defined at the surface. These moderate variations follow changes in ocean buffer capacity along emission pathways and across global warming scenarios. The gross ocean capture efficiency (about 0.78–0.79 for the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M342" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario) quantifies the additional carbon uptake directly induced by OAE and thus reflects its negative emissions potential, making it well suited for carbon accounting and comparison with other CDR approaches such as direct air capture <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx91" id="paren.77"/>. Similar to the maximum ocean capture efficiency, this metric is also relatively insensitive to the emission pathway. In contrast, the net ocean capture efficiency accounts for Earth system feedbacks that reduce net ocean carbon uptake following atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M343" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> drawdown <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx85" id="paren.78"/> and is highly dependent on the climate state. The net atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M344" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reduction efficiency is further reduced by the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M345" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> efflux from the land carbon reservoir and is therefore lower than the net ocean capture efficiency.  While the gross efficiency is most appropriate for policy and carbon accounting frameworks, net efficiencies remain essential for assessing long-term carbon storage and climate impacts, such as ocean acidification. Biogeochemical feedbacks in the ocean, such as due to state-dependent calcification rates, affect both gross and net ocean capture efficiencies, consistent with previous studies <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx5 bib1.bibx62" id="paren.79"/>. Overall, these feedbacks substantially lower the total additional alkalinity in the ocean, where a quite equal part of the reduction comes from chemical changes due to OAE or is related to the reduction in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M346" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> following OAE (see the difference of OAE and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M347" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to Ref in Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC3"/>c). These feedbacks are relevant for ocean-only simulations as well, where estimates of gross efficiency can differ depending on whether they are defined as the change in oceanic DIC inventory relative to the change in alkalinity inventory or as the change in air–sea <inline-formula><mml:math id="M348" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> flux relative to the added alkalinity, the latter representing negative emissions.  In the ESM2M model, the inventory-based efficiency is higher than the flux-based efficiency (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FC7"/>) due to enhanced calcification following increasing calcite and aragonite saturation states under the OAE addition. In 2500, inventory-based and flux-based efficiency differ by 0.01 units with distinct ensemble ranges.  Furthermore, the inventory-based efficiency eventually surpasses the maximum ocean capture efficiency calculated at the surface and the full potential of OAE on timescales of millennia is rather limited by the mean ocean maximum efficiency, which is larger with about 0.91.  We therefore emphasize that it is essential to clearly specify how efficiencies are calculated and which processes are represented in the applied model, as these choices directly affect policy-relevant efficiency estimates and associated uncertainties.</p>
      <p id="d2e5175">We show that OAE can mitigate ocean acidification. While surface ocean acidification already reverses in the global warming stabilization scenarios without OAE due to a long-term decline in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M349" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, OAE provides additional mitigation. In response to OAE, global mean pH increases by 0.11 to 0.12 (1.5 °C scenario to 3 °C scenario) at the surface and by up to 0.13 to 0.15 at subsurface. The majority of this pH increase is driven by the reduction in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M350" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, a response that is largely independent of the specific CDR approach. In addition, OAE induces direct chemical changes to the ocean carbonate system, which account for 48 % of the surface pH increase after 75 years of OAE and still contribute 27 % by the year 2500. Following termination of OAE, these OAE-specific effects diminish over time as the ocean–atmosphere system equilibrates and 88 % of surface pH mitigation in the year 3000 comes from reduced atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M351" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. This indicates that emissions reductions remain the most effective and durable strategy for limiting ongoing ocean acidification, and that the long-term acidification mitigation potential provided by OAE is not substantially larger than that achieved through any other CDR approach that lowers atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M352" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, at least on multi-centennial timescales. Although sustained alkalinity addition could, in principle, reduce peak ocean acidification, the required amounts of alkalinity would be immense. At regional and local scales, OAE has the potential to temporarily offset ocean acidification <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx2 bib1.bibx28 bib1.bibx68" id="paren.80"/>. However, elevated pH levels, rapid pH changes or the addition of toxic trace metals through impure minerals may also have ecological impacts that remain poorly understood, underscoring the need for caution in deployment and further investigation of biological responses <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx28 bib1.bibx5 bib1.bibx93" id="paren.81"/>.</p>
      <p id="d2e5230">Although we consider our conclusions robust, several important caveats must be acknowledged. These relate primarily to (i) the magnitude, spatial distribution, and temporal characteristics of alkalinity deployment, (ii) assumptions regarding the dissolution of added minerals, and (iii) limitations arising from model resolution and simulated biogeochemical complexity. First, the representation of alkalinity addition in our simulations is highly idealized. The total amount of alkalinity applied far exceeds what could be realistically implemented in the near future <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx24" id="paren.82"/>, as the amount of needed materials, dependent on the feedstock, corresponds to or exceeds the current scale of global production <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx80 bib1.bibx64" id="paren.83"/>, along with substantial infrastructure requiring large investments. Another important point for the readiness of OAE are life cycle emissions, which need emission reductions themselves to make the approach net carbon negative <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx32 bib1.bibx17" id="paren.84"/>. Moreover, our simulations assume near global deployment, whereas real-world application would likely be spatially constrained to exclusive economic zones, coastal regions, or shipping corridors <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx63 bib1.bibx46" id="paren.85"/>. We further assume continuous alkalinity addition, while practical deployment can occur in temporally discrete pulses as well.  Continuous addition is likely feasible at specific coastal sites, such as industrial water outlets <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx94 bib1.bibx15" id="paren.86"/> and continuous alkalinity addition may well approximate the alkalinity release from frequent individual pulses necessary for OAE at scale.  Second, we assume instantaneous dissolution of the added minerals at the ocean surface. Depending on the mineral and grain size, however, dissolution kinetics and particle sinking can substantially delay alkalinity release and reduce near-term carbon uptake efficiency <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx60 bib1.bibx26 bib1.bibx14" id="paren.87"/>. More realistic representations of mineral dissolution and particle dynamics are therefore required to better constrain OAE efficiency under plausible deployment scenarios. Third, despite a comparatively realistic representation of alkalinity relative to other Earth system models <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx78" id="paren.88"/>, including explicit aragonite and calcite cycling, several model limitations may influence the simulated OAE response. Notably, the biogeochemical module lacks a more explicit representation of the biological carbon pump, such as particulate organic carbon dynamics, and more detailed sediment-water interactions, both of which could affect long-term carbon and alkalinity cycling. The model also exhibits regional alkalinity biases that may limit its applicability for assessing geographically specific OAE deployments <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx22" id="paren.89"/>. Furthermore, the coarse ocean resolution restricts the representations of mesoscale processes, particularly in western boundary current regions, where we identify strong carbon uptake responses <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx44" id="paren.90"/>. While higher spatial resolution and increased biogeochemical complexity would improve process fidelity, such fully coupled simulations remain computationally prohibitive for the ensemble, multi-centennial simulations across multiple emission scenarios conducted here.</p>
      <p id="d2e5261">In summary, we demonstrate that the net ocean carbon uptake and the resulting atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M353" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> reduction from OAE are modulated by global carbon cycle feedbacks that vary with the emission trajectory. In contrast, the simulated cooling evolves approximately linearly over time, consistent with a near-constant transient climate response to removal (TCRR) under sustained <inline-formula><mml:math id="M354" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> drawdown. On centennial timescales, OAE mitigates ocean acidification primarily through reduced atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M355" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>; an effect common to other CDR approaches. Direct chemical pH increase from added alkalinity is most important during the first decades and becomes progressively less important thereafter. Overall, these results underscore that rapid emission reductions remain the most effective strategy for achieving the Paris Agreement goals and mitigating ocean acidification.</p>
</sec>

      
      </body>
    <back><app-group>

<app id="App1.Ch1.S1">
  <label>Appendix A</label><title>Equivalence of OAE and direct air capture in reducing atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M356" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula></title>
      <p id="d2e5320">We investigate whether OAE in an emission-driven framework leads to the same reduction in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M357" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> as would be obtained by applying the additional ocean carbon uptake diagnosed from a concentration-driven OAE simulation as negative emissions in an emission driven simulation (i.e. equivalent to direct air capture (DAC)). This analysis reassesses the findings of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx91" id="text.91"/> using a fully coupled Earth system model. The additional carbon uptake is equivalent to the gross ocean carbon capture, which is also quantified by the gross ocean capture efficiency.</p>
      <p id="d2e5337">To test this, we performed a set of 200 years pre-industrial simulations (Fig. <xref ref-type="fig" rid="FA1"/>): (i) an emission-driven control simulation with zero emissions (red line), (ii) a concentration-driven simulation with atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M358" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> fixed at 286 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M359" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ppm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and no OAE (orange line), (iii) a concentration-driven simulation with atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M360" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> fixed at 286 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M361" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ppm</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> and continuous OAE applied using the same forcing as described in Sect. <xref ref-type="sec" rid="Ch1.S2.SS2"/> (blue line), (iv) an emission-driven simulation in which the difference in ocean carbon uptake between simulations (ii) and (iii) is imposed as a negative emission forcing, directly removing carbon from the atmospheric reservoir and the global carbon cycle can react to the changes in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M362" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (purple line), and (v) an emission-driven simulation with zero emissions, but with OAE applied identically to simulation (iii) (green line).</p>

      <fig id="FA1"><label>Figure A1</label><caption><p id="d2e5396">Simulated atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M363" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> concentrations in a set of pre-industrial simulations. Details are explained in Appendix <xref ref-type="sec" rid="App1.Ch1.S1"/>.</p></caption>
        <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f11.png"/>

      </fig>

      <p id="d2e5419">The emission-driven simulations with negative emissions (purple) and with OAE (green) exhibit nearly identical reductions in atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M364" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> supporting the findings of <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx91" id="text.92"/>. The small difference may be explained by internal variability, which is on the same order as in the control (red). This result demonstrates that carbon cycle feedbacks respond equivalently to <inline-formula><mml:math id="M365" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> removal from the atmosphere and to additional ocean carbon uptake induced by OAE. Therefore, concentration-driven ocean-only model simulations with and without OAE are sufficient to quantify the expected carbon removal from OAE, hence the gross ocean capture efficiency, and to inform carbon accounting and crediting frameworks <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx91" id="paren.93"/>.  Fully coupled Earth system models, however, remain essential for assessing the broader climate response.</p>
</app>

<app id="App1.Ch1.S2">
  <label>Appendix B</label><title>Derivation of the pH-equilibrated effect</title>
      <p id="d2e5458">The ocean carbonate system is governed by the equilibrium constants relating oceanic partial pressure of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M366" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M367" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), carbonic acid (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M368" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), bicarbonate (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M369" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), carbonate ions (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M370" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>), and protons (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M371" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>):

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.Ex1"><mml:math id="M372" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>K</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mrow/><mml:msub><mml:mi>K</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mrow/><mml:msub><mml:mi>K</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e5700">Combining these expressions yields two equivalent formulations for <inline-formula><mml:math id="M373" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>:

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.Ex2"><mml:math id="M374" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>K</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:msub><mml:mi>K</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mtext> and </mml:mtext><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:msup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi>K</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:msub><mml:mi>K</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:msub><mml:mi>K</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e5824">We assume that alkalinity addition induces a change in <inline-formula><mml:math id="M375" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> that fully equilibrates with the atmosphere, such that the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M376" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> remains unchanged before and after equilibration:

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E9" content-type="numbered"><label>B1</label><mml:math id="M377" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>end</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e5884">This implies

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E10" content-type="numbered"><label>B2</label><mml:math id="M378" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>end</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>end</mml:mtext></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula>

        and

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E11" content-type="numbered"><label>B3</label><mml:math id="M379" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>end</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>end</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e6037">Uptake of atmospheric <inline-formula><mml:math id="M380" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> by the ocean predominantly increases the bicarbonate concentration (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M381" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx76" id="paren.94"/>.  We therefore introduce a small parameter <inline-formula><mml:math id="M382" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mo>≪</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> describing the relative increase in bicarbonate during equilibration:

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E12" content-type="numbered"><label>B4</label><mml:math id="M383" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>end</mml:mtext></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e6132">Combining Eqs. (B2)–(B4) yields:

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E13" content-type="numbered"><label>B5</label><mml:math id="M384" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>end</mml:mtext></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e6197">The total change in dissolved inorganic carbon (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M385" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mtext>DIC</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>) due to OAE is given by the change in bicarbonate and carbonate concentrations:

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E14" content-type="numbered"><label>B6</label><mml:math id="M386" display="block"><mml:mtable class="split" rowspacing="0.2ex" displaystyle="true" columnalign="right left"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mtext>DIC</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mspace width="0.25em" linebreak="nobreak"/><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>end</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>end</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e6305">By using Eqs. (B4) and (B5), this yields:

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E15" content-type="numbered"><label>B7</label><mml:math id="M387" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mtext>DIC</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e6374">Since <inline-formula><mml:math id="M388" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mtext>DIC</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> is positive for OAE, <inline-formula><mml:math id="M389" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> is positive as well and assuming that <inline-formula><mml:math id="M390" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msup><mml:mo>≈</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">0</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> since <inline-formula><mml:math id="M391" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mo>≪</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, this simplifies to

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E16" content-type="numbered"><label>B8</label><mml:math id="M392" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mtext>DIC</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mfenced open="(" close=")"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">HCO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msubsup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">3</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn><mml:mo>-</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:msubsup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mfenced><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e6475">The bracket in Eq. (B8) describes the contribution of bicarbonate and carbonate ions to alkalinity. As bicarbonate and carbonate ions makes up about 96 % of the alkalinity in the ocean <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx83" id="paren.95"/>, we assume this to be the total alkalinity of the ocean before alkalinity addition, i.e. the alkalinity in the reference simulation (<inline-formula><mml:math id="M393" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ALK</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>).  Equation (B8) can therefore be written as:

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E17" content-type="numbered"><label>B9</label><mml:math id="M394" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mtext>DIC</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ALK</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi></mml:msup></mml:mrow><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e6514">As discussed in Sect. 2.3.3, under perfect equilibration, the total additional DIC change is proportional to the added alkalinity, with the proportionality given by the maximum ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M395" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>max</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>:

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E18" content-type="numbered"><label>B10</label><mml:math id="M396" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mtext>DIC</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>max</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mtext>ALK</mml:mtext><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e6560">Using Eqs. (B9) and (B10), we can write <inline-formula><mml:math id="M397" display="inline"><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula> as:

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E19" content-type="numbered"><label>B11</label><mml:math id="M398" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>max</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mtext>ALK</mml:mtext></mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ALK</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e6604">To quantify the pH after equilibration, we combine Eqs. (B2) and (B4) and get the amount of protons after equilibration:

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E20" content-type="numbered"><label>B12</label><mml:math id="M399" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>end</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:msup><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e6654">And since <inline-formula><mml:math id="M400" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mtext>log</mml:mtext><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mo>[</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">H</mml:mi><mml:mo>+</mml:mo></mml:msup><mml:mo>]</mml:mo></mml:mrow><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, the pH after equilibration can be calculated as:

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E21" content-type="numbered"><label>B13</label><mml:math id="M401" display="block"><mml:mrow><mml:msup><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>end</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mtext>log</mml:mtext><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>.</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
      <p id="d2e6724">Since <inline-formula><mml:math id="M402" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mo>≪</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, we can approximate <inline-formula><mml:math id="M403" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mtext>log</mml:mtext><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn></mml:msub><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mo>+</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mo>)</mml:mo><mml:mo>≈</mml:mo><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">ϵ</mml:mi><mml:mstyle displaystyle="false"><mml:mfrac style="text"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mi>ln⁡</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, and the pH-equilibrated effect is approximated by:

          <disp-formula id="App1.Ch1.S2.E22" content-type="numbered"><label>B14</label><mml:math id="M404" display="block"><mml:mtable class="split" rowspacing="0.2ex" displaystyle="true" columnalign="right left"><mml:mtr><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>equilibrated</mml:mtext></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:mtd><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>end</mml:mtext></mml:msup><mml:mo>-</mml:mo><mml:msup><mml:mtext>pH</mml:mtext><mml:mtext>start</mml:mtext></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr><mml:mtr><mml:mtd/><mml:mtd><mml:mrow><mml:mo>=</mml:mo><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>max</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Δ</mml:mi><mml:mtext>ALK</mml:mtext></mml:mrow><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">ALK</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle><mml:mstyle displaystyle="true"><mml:mfrac style="display"><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">1</mml:mn><mml:mrow><mml:mi>ln⁡</mml:mi><mml:mo>(</mml:mo><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">10</mml:mn><mml:mo>)</mml:mo></mml:mrow></mml:mfrac></mml:mstyle></mml:mrow></mml:mtd></mml:mtr></mml:mtable></mml:math></disp-formula></p>
</app>

<app id="App1.Ch1.S3">
  <label>Appendix C</label><title>Additional Figures</title>

      <fig id="FC1"><label>Figure C1</label><caption><p id="d2e6861">Emission trajectories from the adaptive emission reduction approach to stabilise at global warming levels of 1.5, 2.0 and 3.0 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M405" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>. All lines are ensemble means, while the shading represents the ensemble range.</p></caption>
        <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f12.png"/>

      </fig>

<fig id="FC2"><label>Figure C2</label><caption><p id="d2e6883">Regional patterns of surface air temperature <bold>(a–c)</bold> and surface pH <bold>(d–f)</bold> changes between the OAE and the reference simulation for the period of 2470–2500 for the 1.5 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M406" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> level <bold>(a, d)</bold>, the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M407" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> level <bold>(b, e)</bold> and the 3 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M408" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> level <bold>(c, f)</bold>. Regions without hatching show significance at the 95 % level based on a two-sided students <inline-formula><mml:math id="M409" display="inline"><mml:mi>t</mml:mi></mml:math></inline-formula>-test.</p></caption>
        
        <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f13.png"/>

      </fig>

      <fig id="FC3"><label>Figure C3</label><caption><p id="d2e6950">Simulated ocean alkalinity inventories <bold>(a)</bold>, differences in the alkalinity inventory of the OAE and <inline-formula><mml:math id="M410" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> simulations to the Ref simulation <bold>(b)</bold> and the sum of all ocean internal alkalinity sources and sinks, including sediment processes <bold>(c)</bold> for all global warming scenarios with and without OAE. Lines are the 5 member ensemble mean and shading refers to the ensemble range. Lines in panel <bold>(c)</bold> are smoothed with a 31 year running mean.</p></caption>
        
        <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f14.png"/>

      </fig>

      <fig id="FC4"><label>Figure C4</label><caption><p id="d2e6986">The global ocean buffer capacity from 1861 until 2500 for the different global warming scenarios with and without OAE. Lines are the 5 member ensemble mean and shading refers to the ensemble range. A low buffer capacity represents a high sensitivity of <inline-formula><mml:math id="M411" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:mi>p</mml:mi><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> to DIC and a high Revelle factor and vice versa <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx81" id="paren.96"/>.</p></caption>
        
        <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f15.png"/>

      </fig>

<fig id="FC5"><label>Figure C5</label><caption><p id="d2e7016">Spatial pattern of the maximum ocean capture efficiency <bold>(a)</bold> and the difference between the gross ocean capture efficiency and the maximum ocean capture efficiency <bold>(b)</bold>, averaged over  2026 and 2500.</p></caption>
        
        <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f16.png"/>

      </fig>

      <fig id="FC6"><label>Figure C6</label><caption><p id="d2e7035">Simulated transient climate response to cumulative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M412" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions (TCRE) in <bold>(a)</bold> and transient climate response to removal (TCRR) in <bold>(b)</bold>. Panel <bold>(a)</bold> show TCRE for the reference simulation (Ref) and the global surface air temperature response to the total positive fossil fuel emissions plus negative emissions due to OAE (OAE). Panel <bold>(b)</bold> shows the TCRR as the temperature difference between OAE and the reference simulation against the cumulative negative <inline-formula><mml:math id="M413" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> emissions resulting from the gross carbon capture efficiency. The figure only shows the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M414" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> scenario, since the <inline-formula><mml:math id="M415" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msup><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">Ref</mml:mi><mml:mo>∗</mml:mo></mml:msup></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> simulations are necessary to calculate negative emissions. All lines are ensemble and 31 year running means, while the shading represents the ensemble spread.</p></caption>
        
        <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f17.png"/>

      </fig>

      <fig id="FC7"><label>Figure C7</label><caption><p id="d2e7105">Cumulative efficiencies of ocean alkalinity enhancement; maximum ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M416" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>max</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in black and gross ocean capture efficiency <inline-formula><mml:math id="M417" display="inline"><mml:mrow><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="italic">η</mml:mi><mml:mrow><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">o</mml:mi><mml:mo>,</mml:mo><mml:mtext>gross</mml:mtext></mml:mrow></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> in green for the 2 <inline-formula><mml:math id="M418" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="unit"><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">°</mml:mi><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">C</mml:mi></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> global warming scenario. Surface maximum efficiency and gross efficiency from air–sea <inline-formula><mml:math id="M419" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula> fluxes in the solid lines, average maximum efficiency for the full ocean and gross efficiencies from DIC and alkalinity inventory changes in the dashed lines. All lines are ensemble means, while the shading represents the ensemble spread. OAE termination for the first ensemble member after 2500 is marked with the vertical dashed line.</p></caption>
        
        <graphic xlink:href="https://bg.copernicus.org/articles/23/3299/2026/bg-23-3299-2026-f18.png"/>

      </fig>


</app>
  </app-group><notes notes-type="codedataavailability"><title>Code and data availability</title>

      <p id="d2e7175">Code and data to reproduce figures is available on Zenodo: <ext-link xlink:href="https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.19706021" ext-link-type="DOI">10.5281/zenodo.19706021</ext-link> <xref ref-type="bibr" rid="bib1.bibx43" id="paren.97"/>.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="authorcontribution"><title>Author contributions</title>

      <p id="d2e7188">All authors designed the study. HG ran the simulations with OAE and the additional reference simulations under prescribed <inline-formula><mml:math id="M420" display="inline"><mml:mrow class="chem"><mml:msub><mml:mi mathvariant="normal">CO</mml:mi><mml:mn mathvariant="normal">2</mml:mn></mml:msub></mml:mrow></mml:math></inline-formula>, analysed the model output and wrote the initial manuscript draft. FAB contributed significantly to the development of theoretical frameworks to explain processes and ran the reference simulations. TLF acquired funding. All authors discussed results and contributed to revising, editing, and writing of the paper.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="competinginterests"><title>Competing interests</title>

      <p id="d2e7206">The contact author has declared that none of the authors has any competing interests.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="disclaimer"><title>Disclaimer</title>

      <p id="d2e7213">Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this paper. The authors bear the ultimate responsibility for providing appropriate place names. Views expressed in the text are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the publisher.</p>
  </notes><ack><title>Acknowledgements</title><p id="d2e7220">The authors thank the CSCS Swiss National Supercomputing Centre for computing resources (project number s1328) and Raffaele Bernardello for initial discussions.</p></ack><notes notes-type="financialsupport"><title>Financial support</title>

      <p id="d2e7227">This work was supported by the Bloom Foundation.</p>
  </notes><notes notes-type="reviewstatement"><title>Review statement</title>

      <p id="d2e7234">This paper was edited by Jack Middelburg and reviewed by four anonymous referees.</p>
  </notes><ref-list>
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