02 Jun 2020
02 Jun 2020
Climate change and elevated CO2 favor forest over savanna under different future scenarios in South Asia
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
- Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Abstract. South Asian vegetation provides essential ecosystem services to the region and its 1.7 billion inhabitants that are closely linked to its land-use forms and carbon storage potential. Yet, biodiversity is threatened by climate and land-use change. Understanding and assessing how ecosystems respond to simultaneous increases in atmospheric CO2 and future climate change is of vital importance to avoid undesired ecosystem change. A failure to react to increasing CO2 and climate change will likely have severe consequences for biodiversity and humankind. Here, we used the aDGVM2 to simulate vegetation dynamics in South Asia under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, and we explored how the presence or absence of CO2 fertilization influences vegetation responses to climate change. Simulated vegetation under both RCPs without CO2 fertilization effects showed a decrease in tree dominance and biomass, whereas simulations with CO2 fertilization showed an increase in biomass, canopy cover, and tree height and a decrease in biome-specific evapotranspiration by the end of the 21st century. The model predicted changes in above ground biomass and canopy cover that trigger biome transition towards tree-dominated systems. We found that savanna regions are at high risk of woody encroachment and transitioning into forest. We also found transitions of deciduous forest to evergreen forest in the mountain regions. C3 photosynthesis dependent vegetation was not saturated at current CO2 concentrations and the model simulated a strong CO2 fertilization effect with the rising CO2. Hence, vegetation in the region will likely remain a carbon sink. Projections showed that the bioclimatic envelopes of biomes need adjustments to account for shifts caused by climate change and eCO2. The results of our study help to understand the regional climate-vegetation interactions and can support the development of regional strategies to preserve ecosystem services and biodiversity under elevated CO2 and climate change.
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Dushyant Kumar et al.


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RC1: 'bg-2020-169', Anonymous Referee #1, 29 Jun 2020
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AC1: 'Response to Referee #1', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
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AC1: 'Response to Referee #1', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
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SC1: 'Referee comments', Hisashi Sato, 21 Jul 2020
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SC2: 'A technical problem of this online submission system', Hisashi Sato, 21 Jul 2020
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RC3: 'The problem was fixed', Hisashi Sato, 22 Jul 2020
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AC5: 'Response to RC3', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
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AC5: 'Response to RC3', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
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AC4: 'Response to SC2', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
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RC3: 'The problem was fixed', Hisashi Sato, 22 Jul 2020
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AC3: 'Response to SC1', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
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SC2: 'A technical problem of this online submission system', Hisashi Sato, 21 Jul 2020
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RC2: 'Review Report', Hisashi Sato, 22 Jul 2020
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AC2: 'Response to Reviewer 2', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
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AC2: 'Response to Reviewer 2', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020


-
RC1: 'bg-2020-169', Anonymous Referee #1, 29 Jun 2020
-
AC1: 'Response to Referee #1', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
-
AC1: 'Response to Referee #1', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
-
SC1: 'Referee comments', Hisashi Sato, 21 Jul 2020
-
SC2: 'A technical problem of this online submission system', Hisashi Sato, 21 Jul 2020
-
RC3: 'The problem was fixed', Hisashi Sato, 22 Jul 2020
-
AC5: 'Response to RC3', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
-
AC5: 'Response to RC3', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
-
AC4: 'Response to SC2', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
-
RC3: 'The problem was fixed', Hisashi Sato, 22 Jul 2020
-
AC3: 'Response to SC1', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
-
SC2: 'A technical problem of this online submission system', Hisashi Sato, 21 Jul 2020
-
RC2: 'Review Report', Hisashi Sato, 22 Jul 2020
-
AC2: 'Response to Reviewer 2', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
-
AC2: 'Response to Reviewer 2', Dushyant Kumar, 14 Aug 2020
Dushyant Kumar et al.
Dushyant Kumar et al.
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Cited
3 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Projected Impacts of Climate Change on the Protected Areas of Myanmar T. Nwe et al. 10.3390/cli8090099
- Climate change will cause non-analog vegetation states in Africa and commit vegetation to long-term change M. Pfeiffer et al. 10.5194/bg-17-5829-2020
- The Sustainability of Thailand’s Protected-Area System under Climate Change N. Pomoim et al. 10.3390/su13052868