Status: this preprint is currently under review for the journal BG.
Reviews and syntheses: A framework to observe, understand, and project ecosystem response to environmental change in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean
Julian Gutt1,Stefanie Arndt1,David Keith Alan Barnes2,Horst Bornemann1,Thomas Brey1,3,Olaf Eisen1,4,Hauke Flores1,Huw Griffiths2,Christian Haas1,Stefan Hain1,Tore Hattermann5,Christoph Held1,Mario Hoppema1,Enrique Isla6,Markus Janout1,Céline Le Bohec7,8,Heike Link9,Felix Christopher Mark1,Sebastien Moreau5,Scarlett Trimborn1,Ilse van Opzeeland1,3,Hans-Otto Pörtner1,Fokje Schaafsma10,Katharina Teschke1,3,Sandra Tippenhauer1,Anton Van de Putte11,12,Mia Wege13,Daniel Zitterbart14,15,and Dieter Piepenburg1,3,16Julian Gutt et al.Julian Gutt1,Stefanie Arndt1,David Keith Alan Barnes2,Horst Bornemann1,Thomas Brey1,3,Olaf Eisen1,4,Hauke Flores1,Huw Griffiths2,Christian Haas1,Stefan Hain1,Tore Hattermann5,Christoph Held1,Mario Hoppema1,Enrique Isla6,Markus Janout1,Céline Le Bohec7,8,Heike Link9,Felix Christopher Mark1,Sebastien Moreau5,Scarlett Trimborn1,Ilse van Opzeeland1,3,Hans-Otto Pörtner1,Fokje Schaafsma10,Katharina Teschke1,3,Sandra Tippenhauer1,Anton Van de Putte11,12,Mia Wege13,Daniel Zitterbart14,15,and Dieter Piepenburg1,3,16
Received: 02 May 2022 – Discussion started: 18 May 2022
Abstract. Systematic long-term studies on ecosystem dynamics are largely lacking for the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, although it is well recognized that such investigations are indispensable to identify the ecological impacts and risks of environmental change. Therefore, here we develop a framework for establishing a long-term cross-disciplinary study and argue why the eastern Weddell Sea and the easterly adjacent sea off Dronning Maud Land (WSoDML) is a well suited area for such an initiative. As in the Eastern Antarctic in general, climate and environmental change have so far been comparatively muted in this area. A systematic long-term study of its environmental and ecological state can thus provide a baseline of the current situation, an assessment of future changes, and sound data can act as a model to develop and calibrate projections. Establishing a long-term observation (LTO) and long-term ecological research (LTER) programme now would allow the study of climate-driven ecosystem changes and interactions with impacts arising from other anthropogenic activities, from their very onset. Through regular autonomous and ship-based LTO activities, changes in ocean dynamics, geochemistry, biodiversity and ecosystem functions and services can be systematically explored and mapped. This observational work should be accompanied by targeted LTER efforts, including experimental and modelling studies. This approach will provide a level of long-term data availability and ecosystem understanding that are imperative to determine, understand, and project the consequences of climate change and support a sound science-informed management of future conservation efforts in the Southern Ocean.
Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of environmental change on biotas. We present a multidisciplinary framework for such largely lacking investigations in the East Antarctic Southern Ocean, combined with case studies, experimental and modelling work. As climate change is still minor here but is projected to start soon, the timely implementation of this framework provides the unique opportunity to document its ecological impacts from the very onset.
Long-term ecological observations are key to assess, understand and predict impacts of...