Simulated methane emissions from Arctic ponds are highly sensitive to warming

Abstract. We employ a new, process-based model for methane emissions from ponds (MeEP) to investigate the methane-emission response of polygonal-tundra ponds in Northeast Siberia to warming. Small and shallow water bodies such as ponds are vulnerable to warming due to their low thermal inertia compared to larger lakes, and the Arctic is warming at an above-average rate. While ponds are a relevant landscape-scale source of methane under the current climate, the response of pond methane emissions to warming is uncertain. MeEP differentiates between the three main pond types of the polygonal tundra, ice-wedge, polygonal-center, and merged polygonal ponds. The model resolves the three main pathways of methane emissions – diffusion, ebullition, and plant-mediated transport – at the temporal resolution of one hour, thus capturing daily and seasonal variability of the methane emissions. The model was tuned using chamber measurements resolving the three methane pathways. We perform idealized warming experiments, with increases in the mean annual temperature of 2.5, 5, and 7.5 °C on top of a historical simulation. The simulations reveal an overall increase of 1.33 g CH₄ year^-1 °C^-1 per square meter of pond area. Under annual temperatures 5 °C above present temperatures pond methane emissions are more than three times higher than now. Most of this emission increase is due to the additional substrate provided by the increased net productivity of the vascular plants. Furthermore, plant-mediated transport is the dominating pathway of methane emissions in all simulations. We conclude that vascular plants as a substrate source and efficient methane pathway should be included in future pan-Arctic assessments of pond methane emissions.