Primary succession and its driving variables – a holistic approach applied in three proglacial areas in the upper Martell Valley (Eastern Italian Alps)

Abstract. Climate change and the associated glacier retreat lead to considerable enlargement and alterations of the proglacial systems. The colonisation of plants in this ecosystem was found to be highly depending on terrain age, initial site conditions and geomorphic disturbances. Although the explanatory variables are generally well understood, there is little knowledge on their collinearities and resulting influence on proglacial primary succession. To develop a holistic understanding of vegetation development, a more interdisciplinary approach was adopted. In the proglacial area of Fürkele-, Zufall-, and Langenferner (Martell Valley/Eastern Italian Alps), totally 65 plots of 5 × 2 m were installed to perform the vegetation analysis on vegetation cover, species number, and species composition. For each of those, 30 potential explanatory variables were collected, selected through an extensive literature review. To analyse and further avoid multicollinearities, 26 of the explanatory variables were clustered via Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to five components. Subsequently, generalised additive models (GAM) were used to analyse the potential explanatory factors of primary succession. The results showed that primary succession patterns were highly related to the first component (‘elevation and time’), the second component (‘solar radiation’), and the third component (‘south-eastness’) as well as snow free freeze-thaw days, and landforms. In summary, the analysis of all explanatory variables together provides an overview of the most important influencing variables and their interactions, and thus a basis for the debate on future vegetation development in a changing climate.