Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-4
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2022-4
 
09 Feb 2022
09 Feb 2022
Status: a revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal BG.

Hydrodynamic and Biochemical Impacts on the Development of Hypoxia in the Louisiana–Texas Shelf Part II: Statistical Modeling and Hypoxia Prediction

Yanda Ou1, Bin Li2, and Z. George Xue1,3,4 Yanda Ou et al.
  • 1Department of Oceanography and Coastal Sciences, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA
  • 2Department of Experimental Statistics, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA
  • 3Center for Computation and Technology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA
  • 4Coastal Studies Institute, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA, 70803, USA

Abstract. In this study, a novel ensemble regression model was developed for hypoxic area (HA) forecast in the Louisiana–Texas (LaTex) Shelf. The ensemble model combines a zero-inflated Poisson generalized linear model (GLM) and a quasi-Poisson generalized additive model (GAM) and considers predictors with hydrodynamic and biochemical features. Both models were trained and calibrated using the daily hindcast (2007–2020) by a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic–biogeochemical model embedded in the Reginal Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). A promising HA forecast is provided by the ensemble model with a low RMSE (3,204 km2), a high R2 (0.8005), and a precise performance in capturing hypoxic area peaks in the summers. To test its robustness, the model was further applied to a global forecast model and produces HA prediction from 2019 to 2020 with the adjusted predictors from the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM). Predicted HA shows a high agreement with the ROMS hindcast time series (RMSE = 4,571 km2, R2 = 0.8178). Our model can also predict the magnitude and onsets of summer HA peaks in both 2019 and 2020 with high accuracy. To the best of our knowledge, this ensemble model is by far the first one providing fast and accurate daily HA predictions for the LaTex Shelf while considering both hydrodynamic and biochemical effects. This study demonstrates that it is feasible to perform regional ocean HA prediction using global ocean forecast.

Yanda Ou et al.

Status: final response (author comments only)

Comment types: AC – author | RC – referee | CC – community | EC – editor | CEC – chief editor | : Report abuse
  • RC1: 'Comment on bg-2022-4', Anonymous Referee #1, 28 Mar 2022
  • RC2: 'Comment on bg-2022-4', Anonymous Referee #2, 29 Mar 2022
  • RC3: 'Comment on bg-2022-4', Anonymous Referee #3, 12 Apr 2022

Yanda Ou et al.

Yanda Ou et al.

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Short summary
Over the past decades, the Louisiana-Texas Shelf has been suffering recurring hypoxia (dissolved oxygen < 2 mg/L). We developed a novel prediction model using state-of-the-art statistical techniques based on physical and biogeochemical data provided by a numerical model. The model can capture both the magnitude and onset of the annual hypoxia events. This study also demonstrates that it is possible to use a global model forecast to predict regional ocean water quality.
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