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Biogeosciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-116
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2020-116
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

  01 Apr 2020

01 Apr 2020

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A revised version of this preprint was accepted for the journal BG and is expected to appear here in due course.

Risk of crop failure due to compound dry and hot extremes estimated with nested copulas

Andreia Filipa Silva Ribeiro1,2, Ana Russo2, Célia Marina Gouveia2,3, Patrícia Páscoa2,3,4, and Jakob Zscheischler1,5 Andreia Filipa Silva Ribeiro et al.
  • 1Climate and Environmental Physics, University of Bern, Sidlerstrasse 5, 3012 Bern, Switzerland
  • 2Instituto Dom Luiz (IDL), Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Campo Grande, 1749–016, Lisboa, Portugal
  • 3Instituto Português do Mar e da Atmosfera, Lisboa, Portugal
  • 4Environmental Physics Laboratory (EPhysLab), University of Vigo, Ourense, Spain
  • 5Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland

Abstract. Drought and heat events stress agricultural systems and may threaten food security. The interaction between co-occurring drought and hot conditions is often particularly damaging to crop's health and may cause crop failure. In this context, traditional univariate analyses may not be adequate for reliable risk assessment of crop failure associated with compound hazards. Climate change exacerbates such risks due to an increase in the intensity and frequency of dry and hot events in many land regions. Here we model the trivariate dependence between spring maximum temperature, spring precipitation and wheat and barley yields, respectively, over two province clusters in Spain with nested copulas. Based on the full trivariate joint distribution, we (i) estimate the impact of compound hot and dry conditions on wheat and barley loss and (ii) estimate the additional impact due to compound hazards compared to individual hazards. We find that crop loss increases when drought- or heat-stress aggravates to compound dry and hot conditions and that an increase in the severity of compound conditions leads to larger damages. For instance, compared to moderate drought only, compound dry and hot conditions increase the likelihood of crop loss by 8 to 11 %, while when starting with moderate heat, the increase is between 19 to 29 % (depending on the cereal and region). This means that the likelihood of crop loss is driven primarily by drought stress than by heat stress, suggesting that drought plays the dominant role in the compound event, that is, drought stress does not require to be so extreme as heat stress to cause a similar damage. Furthermore, when compound dry and hot conditions aggravate from moderate to severe or extreme stress, crop loss probabilities increase 5 to 6 % and 6 to 8 %, respectively (depending on the cereal and region). Our results highlight the additional value of a trivariate approach for the estimating the compounding effects of dry and hot extremes on of crop failure risk. Therefore, this approach can effectively contribute to design management options and guide the decision-making process in agricultural practices.

Andreia Filipa Silva Ribeiro et al.

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Andreia Filipa Silva Ribeiro et al.

Andreia Filipa Silva Ribeiro et al.

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Latest update: 18 Sep 2020
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Short summary
This study investigates the impacts of compound dry and hot extremes on crop yields, namely wheat and barley, over two regions in Spain dominated by rainfed agriculture. We provide estimates of the conditional probability of crop loss under compound dry and hot conditions, which could be an important tool for responsible authorities to mitigate the impacts magnified by the interactions between the different hazards.
This study investigates the impacts of compound dry and hot extremes on crop yields, namely...
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