Can current moisture responses predict soil CO2 efflux under altered precipitation regimes? A synthesis of manipulation experiments
S. Vicca1,M. Bahn2,M. Estiarte3,4,E. E. van Loon5,R. Vargas6,G. Alberti7,8,P. Ambus9,M. A. Arain10,C. Beier9,11,L. P. Bentley12,W. Borken13,N. Buchmann14,S. L. Collins15,G. de Dato16,J. S. Dukes17,18,19,C. Escolar20,P. Fay21,G. Guidolotti16,P. J. Hanson22,A. Kahmen23,G. Kröel-Dulay24,T. Ladreiter-Knauss2,K. S. Larsen9,E. Lellei-Kovacs24,E. Lebrija-Trejos25,F. T. Maestre20,S. Marhan26,M. Marshall27,P. Meir28,29,Y. Miao30,J. Muhr31,P. A. Niklaus32,R. Ogaya3,4,J. Peñuelas3,4,C. Poll26,L. E. Rustad33,K. Savage34,A. Schindlbacher35,I. K. Schmidt36,A. R. Smith27,37,E. D. Sotta38,V. Suseela17,39,A. Tietema5,N. van Gestel40,O. van Straaten41,S. Wan30,U. Weber42,and I. A. Janssens1S. Vicca et al.S. Vicca1,M. Bahn2,M. Estiarte3,4,E. E. van Loon5,R. Vargas6,G. Alberti7,8,P. Ambus9,M. A. Arain10,C. Beier9,11,L. P. Bentley12,W. Borken13,N. Buchmann14,S. L. Collins15,G. de Dato16,J. S. Dukes17,18,19,C. Escolar20,P. Fay21,G. Guidolotti16,P. J. Hanson22,A. Kahmen23,G. Kröel-Dulay24,T. Ladreiter-Knauss2,K. S. Larsen9,E. Lellei-Kovacs24,E. Lebrija-Trejos25,F. T. Maestre20,S. Marhan26,M. Marshall27,P. Meir28,29,Y. Miao30,J. Muhr31,P. A. Niklaus32,R. Ogaya3,4,J. Peñuelas3,4,C. Poll26,L. E. Rustad33,K. Savage34,A. Schindlbacher35,I. K. Schmidt36,A. R. Smith27,37,E. D. Sotta38,V. Suseela17,39,A. Tietema5,N. van Gestel40,O. van Straaten41,S. Wan30,U. Weber42,and I. A. Janssens1
1Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium
2Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestr. 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
3CSIC, Global Ecology Unit, CREAF-CEAB-UAB, Cerdanyola del Vallés 08913, Catalonia, Spain
4CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallés 08193, Catalonia, Spain
5Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands
6Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Delaware Environmental Institute, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA
7University of Udine, via delle Scienze 206, Udine, Italy
8MOUNTFOR Project Centre, European Forest Institute, Via E. Mach 1, San Michele all'Adige (Trento), Italy
9Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
10McMaster Center for Climate Change and School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
11NIVA – Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Gaustadalléen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway
12Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA
13Soil Ecology, University Bayreuth, Dr.-Hans-Frisch-Str. 1–3, 95448 Bayreuth, Germany
14Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
15Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA
16Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-food and Forest systems, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy
17Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, 715 West State Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2061, USA
18Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MA 02125, USA
19Department of Biological Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA
20Área de Biodiversidad y Conservación, Departamento de Biología y Geología, Escuela Superior de Ciencias Experimentales y Tecnología, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, C/Tulipán s/n, 28933 Móstoles, Spain
21USDA ARS Grassland Soil and Water Research Laboratory, Temple, TX 76502, USA
22Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
23Institute of Agricultural Sciences, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
24MTA Centre for Ecological Research, 2–4, Alkotmany u., 2163-Vácrátót, Hungary
25Department of Molecular Biology and Ecology of Plants, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel
26Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Soil Biology, University of Hohenheim, Emil-Wolff-Str. 27, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany
27Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Deiniol Road, Bangor LL57 2UW, UK
28School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
29Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
30State Key Laboratory of Cotton Biology, College of Life Sciences, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan 475004, China
31Max Planck Institute of Biogeochemistry, Department of Biogeochemical Processes, 07701 Jena, Germany
32Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zürich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zürich, Switzerland
33USFS Northern Research Station, 271 Mast Road, Durham, NH 03824, USA
34The Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Rd, Falmouth, MA 02540, USA
35Department of Forest Ecology, Federal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape – BFW, A-1131 Vienna, Austria
36Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Copenhagen University, Denmark
37School of the Environment, Natural Resources, and Geography, Bangor University, Gwynedd LL57 2UW, UK
38Embrapa Amapá Caixa Postal 10, CEP 68906-970, Macapá AP, Brazil
39School of Agricultural, Forest and Environmental Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA
40Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA
41Buesgen Institute, Soil Science of Tropical and Subtropical Ecosystems, Georg-August- University of Goettingen, Buesgenweg 2, 37077 Goettingen, Germany
42Department of Biogeochemical Integration (BGI), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
1Research Group of Plant and Vegetation Ecology, Department of Biology, University of Antwerp, Universiteitsplein 1, 2610 Wilrijk, Belgium
2Institute of Ecology, University of Innsbruck, Sternwartestr. 15, 6020 Innsbruck, Austria
3CSIC, Global Ecology Unit, CREAF-CEAB-UAB, Cerdanyola del Vallés 08913, Catalonia, Spain
4CREAF, Cerdanyola del Vallés 08193, Catalonia, Spain
5Institute for Biodiversity and Ecosystem Dynamics, University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands
6Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Delaware Environmental Institute, University of Delaware, Newark, DE, USA
7University of Udine, via delle Scienze 206, Udine, Italy
8MOUNTFOR Project Centre, European Forest Institute, Via E. Mach 1, San Michele all'Adige (Trento), Italy
9Department of Chemical and Biochemical Engineering, Technical University of Denmark, 2800 Kgs. Lyngby, Denmark
10McMaster Center for Climate Change and School of Geography and Earth Sciences, McMaster University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada
11NIVA – Norwegian Institute for Water Research, Gaustadalléen 21, 0349 Oslo, Norway
12Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA
13Soil Ecology, University Bayreuth, Dr.-Hans-Frisch-Str. 1–3, 95448 Bayreuth, Germany
14Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
15Department of Biology, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87131, USA
16Department for Innovation in Biological, Agro-food and Forest systems, University of Tuscia, Viterbo, Italy
17Department of Forestry and Natural Resources, Purdue University, 715 West State Street, West Lafayette, IN 47907-2061, USA
18Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MA 02125, USA
19Department of Biological Sciences, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, USA
20Área de Biodiversidad y Conservación, Departamento de Biología y Geología, Escuela Superior de Ciencias Experimentales y Tecnología, Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, C/Tulipán s/n, 28933 Móstoles, Spain
21USDA ARS Grassland Soil and Water Research Laboratory, Temple, TX 76502, USA
22Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, TN 37831, USA
23Institute of Agricultural Sciences, ETH Zurich, 8092 Zurich, Switzerland
24MTA Centre for Ecological Research, 2–4, Alkotmany u., 2163-Vácrátót, Hungary
25Department of Molecular Biology and Ecology of Plants, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv 69978, Israel
26Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Soil Biology, University of Hohenheim, Emil-Wolff-Str. 27, 70599 Stuttgart, Germany
27Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Environment Centre Wales, Deiniol Road, Bangor LL57 2UW, UK
28School of Geosciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, UK
29Research School of Biology, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia
30State Key Laboratory of Cotton Biology, College of Life Sciences, Henan University, Kaifeng, Henan 475004, China
31Max Planck Institute of Biogeochemistry, Department of Biogeochemical Processes, 07701 Jena, Germany
32Institute of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies, University of Zürich, Winterthurerstrasse 190, 8057 Zürich, Switzerland
33USFS Northern Research Station, 271 Mast Road, Durham, NH 03824, USA
34The Woods Hole Research Center, 149 Woods Hole Rd, Falmouth, MA 02540, USA
35Department of Forest Ecology, Federal Research and Training Centre for Forests, Natural Hazards and Landscape – BFW, A-1131 Vienna, Austria
36Department of Geosciences and Natural Resource Management, Copenhagen University, Denmark
37School of the Environment, Natural Resources, and Geography, Bangor University, Gwynedd LL57 2UW, UK
38Embrapa Amapá Caixa Postal 10, CEP 68906-970, Macapá AP, Brazil
39School of Agricultural, Forest and Environmental Sciences, Clemson University, Clemson, SC 29634, USA
40Department of Biological Sciences, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, TX 79409, USA
41Buesgen Institute, Soil Science of Tropical and Subtropical Ecosystems, Georg-August- University of Goettingen, Buesgenweg 2, 37077 Goettingen, Germany
42Department of Biogeochemical Integration (BGI), Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Hans-Knöll-Str. 10, 07745 Jena, Germany
Received: 26 Sep 2013 – Discussion started: 14 Jan 2014 – Revised: 31 Mar 2014 – Accepted: 15 Apr 2014 – Published: 06 Jun 2014
Abstract. As a key component of the carbon cycle, soil CO2 efflux (SCE) is being increasingly studied to improve our mechanistic understanding of this important carbon flux. Predicting ecosystem responses to climate change often depends on extrapolation of current relationships between ecosystem processes and their climatic drivers to conditions not yet experienced by the ecosystem. This raises the question of to what extent these relationships remain unaltered beyond the current climatic window for which observations are available to constrain the relationships. Here, we evaluate whether current responses of SCE to fluctuations in soil temperature and soil water content can be used to predict SCE under altered rainfall patterns. Of the 58 experiments for which we gathered SCE data, 20 were discarded because either too few data were available or inconsistencies precluded their incorporation in the analyses. The 38 remaining experiments were used to test the hypothesis that a model parameterized with data from the control plots (using soil temperature and water content as predictor variables) could adequately predict SCE measured in the manipulated treatment. Only for 7 of these 38 experiments was this hypothesis rejected. Importantly, these were the experiments with the most reliable data sets, i.e., those providing high-frequency measurements of SCE. Regression tree analysis demonstrated that our hypothesis could be rejected only for experiments with measurement intervals of less than 11 days, and was not rejected for any of the 24 experiments with larger measurement intervals. This highlights the importance of high-frequency measurements when studying effects of altered precipitation on SCE, probably because infrequent measurement schemes have insufficient capacity to detect shifts in the climate dependencies of SCE. Hence, the most justified answer to the question of whether current moisture responses of SCE can be extrapolated to predict SCE under altered precipitation regimes is "no" – as based on the most reliable data sets available. We strongly recommend that future experiments focus more strongly on establishing response functions across a broader range of precipitation regimes and soil moisture conditions. Such experiments should make accurate measurements of water availability, should conduct high-frequency SCE measurements, and should consider both instantaneous responses and the potential legacy effects of climate extremes. This is important, because with the novel approach presented here, we demonstrated that, at least for some ecosystems, current moisture responses could not be extrapolated to predict SCE under altered rainfall conditions.
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