Articles | Volume 12, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4693-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4693-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
06 Aug 2015
Research article |
| 06 Aug 2015
Probing the past 30-year phenology trend of US deciduous forests
School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 195 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
School of Forestry and Environmental Studies, Yale University, 195 Prospect Street, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
T. F. Keenan
Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University, Sydney, New South Wales 2109, Australia
X. Zhang
Geospatial Sciences Center of Excellence, South Dakota State University, Brookings, SD 57007, USA
C. S. Vogel
The University of Michigan Biological Station, Pellston, MI 49769, USA
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- A new integrated index for drought stress monitoring based on decomposed vegetation response factors G. Yin & H. Zhang https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129252
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41 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Beyond the usual climate? Factors determining flowering and fruiting phenology across a genus over 117 years K. Bartlett et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajb2.16188
- Remote Sensing in Studies of the Growing Season: A Bibliometric Analysis M. Siłuch et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs14061331
- Effects of Growing-Season Drought on Phenology and Productivity in the West Region of Central Hardwood Forests, USA S. Duan et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f9070377
- Assessment of Post-Fire Phenological Changes Using MODIS-Derived Vegetative Indices in the Semiarid Oak Forests S. Karimi et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/f14030590
- Studying the impact of biomass burning aerosol radiative and climate effects on the Amazon rainforest productivity with an Earth system model F. Malavelle et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-1301-2019
- Comparing in-situ leaf observations in early spring with flux tower CO2 exchange, MODIS EVI and modeled LAI in a northern mixed forest A. Donnelly et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2019.107673
- Synergistic Use of Citizen Science and Remote Sensing for Continental-Scale Measurements of Forest Tree Phenology A. Elmore et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8060502
- Identifying the dominant climate-driven uncertainties in modeling gross primary productivity Y. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.149518
- Large Contributions of Diffuse Radiation to Global Gross Primary Productivity During 1981–2015 H. Zhou et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GB006957
- What leads to rubber leaf senescence in the northern edge of the Asian tropics? Y. Chen et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.indcrop.2022.114617
- A new integrated index for drought stress monitoring based on decomposed vegetation response factors G. Yin & H. Zhang https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129252
- Spring and Autumn Phenological Variability across Environmental Gradients of Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA S. Norman et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9050407
- A prognostic pollen emissions model for climate models (PECM1.0) M. Wozniak & A. Steiner https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-10-4105-2017
- An analysis of yield dynamics in Peredovik sunflower variety in the conditions of the North Caucasus Region L. Novikova & V. Gavrilova https://doi.org/10.21638/spbu03.2023.204
- Classification and Characterization of Vegetation Dynamics in Northeastern Mexico from 25-Year EVI Time Series A. Espinoza-Coronado et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs18050787
- Climate change determines the sign of productivity trends in US forests J. Hogan et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2311132121
- Trends in the phenology of the Hyrcanian forests: Elevation and climate change impacts A. Alchin et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rsase.2025.101588
- USA National Phenology Network’s volunteer-contributed observations yield predictive models of phenological transitions T. Crimmins et al. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0182919
- Instability of grape phenology in the late 20th – early 21st century in the northern area of industrial cultivation L. Novikova et al. https://doi.org/10.31676/0235-2591-2024-5-29-35
- Trends in land surface phenology across the conterminous United States (1982‐2016) analyzed by NEON domains L. Liang et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/eap.2323
- Effects of ambient climate and three warming treatments on fruit production in an alpine, subarctic meadow community J. Alatalo et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ajb2.1631
- Growing Season Lengthens in a North American Deciduous Woody Community From 1993 to 2021 C. Augspurger & D. Zaya https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.71226
- Phenological Changes of Soybean in Response to Climate Conditions in Frigid Region in China over the Past Decades L. Gong et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s42106-021-00145-5
- Evaluation of the Quality of NDVI3g Dataset against Collection 6 MODIS NDVI in Central Europe between 2000 and 2013 A. Kern et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs8110955
- Aerosol optical depth thresholds as a tool to assess diffuse radiation fertilization of the land carbon uptake in China X. Yue & N. Unger https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-17-1329-2017
- April Vegetation Dynamics and Forest–Climate Interactions in Central Appalachia N. Shull & E. Lee https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos10120765
- Sensitivity of Spring Phenology Simulations to the Selection of Model Structure and Driving Meteorological Data R. Dávid et al. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12080963
- Low‐cost observations and experiments return a high value in plant phenology research C. McDonough MacKenzie et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/aps3.11338
- Ecoregion-specific restructuring of green-season and peak-season phenology across the continental United States H. Olariu https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoinf.2026.103933
- Modeling leaf area index in North America using a process‐based terrestrial ecosystem model Y. Qu & Q. Zhuang https://doi.org/10.1002/ecs2.2046
- Climate Prediction of Satellite-Based Spring Eurasian Vegetation Index (NDVI) using Coupled Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) Patterns L. Ji & K. Fan https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11182123
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- Real-time and short-term predictions of spring phenology in North America from VIIRS data L. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2017.03.009
- Distinguishing the drivers of trends in land carbon fluxes and plant volatile emissions over the past 3 decades X. Yue et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-11931-2015
- Biological features of the vegetative and flowering phenophase onsets among diploid plum species in Northwestern Russia O. Radchenko & L. Novikova https://doi.org/10.30901/2227-8834-2023-2-101-111
- Spring phenology outweighed climate change in determining autumn phenology on the Tibetan Plateau J. Peng et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7045
- Potential sensitivity of photosynthesis and isoprene emission to direct radiative effects of atmospheric aerosol pollution S. Strada & N. Unger https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-16-4213-2016
- A longer vernal window: the role of winter coldness and snowpack in driving spring transitions and lags A. Contosta et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.13517
- Leaf phenology paradox: Why warming matters most where it is already warm B. Seyednasrollah et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2018.02.059
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 13 Sep 2026
Short summary
We performed model inter-comparison and selected the best model capturing the spatial and temporal variations of observations to predict trends of forest phenology over the past 3 decades. Our results show that phenological trends, which are dominantly driven by temperature changes, are not uniform over the contiguous USA, with a significant spring advance in the east, an autumn delay in the northeast and west, but no evidence of change elsewhere.
We performed model inter-comparison and selected the best model capturing the spatial and...
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