Articles | Volume 12, issue 20
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6017-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6017-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Oct 2015
Research article |
| 22 Oct 2015
Quantifying the influence of CO2 seasonality on future aragonite undersaturation onset
T. P. Sasse
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate Change Research Centre, Kensington Campus, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
B. I. McNeil
Climate Change Research Centre, Kensington Campus, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
R. J. Matear
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere National Research Flagship, Hobart, Australia
A. Lenton
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere National Research Flagship, Hobart, Australia
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Cited
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Sea surface aragonite saturation state variations and control mechanisms at the Gray's Reef time-series site off Georgia, USA (2006–2007) L. Xue et al. 10.1016/j.marchem.2017.05.009
- Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds P. Good et al. 10.1177/0309133317751843
- Ocean acidification and calcium carbonate saturation states in the coastal zone of the West Antarctic Peninsula E. Jones et al. 10.1016/j.dsr2.2017.01.007
- Seasonal Asymmetry in the Evolution of Surface Ocean pCO2 and pH Thermodynamic Drivers and the Influence on Sea‐Air CO2 Flux A. Fassbender et al. 10.1029/2017GB005855
- Drivers of future seasonal cycle changes in oceanic pCO2 M. Gallego et al. 10.5194/bg-15-5315-2018
- Long‐Term Changes of Carbonate Chemistry Variables Along the North American East Coast Y. Xu et al. 10.1029/2019JC015982
- Anthropogenic Intensification of Surface Ocean Interannual pCO2 Variability M. Gallego et al. 10.1029/2020GL087104
- Modified future diurnal variability of the global surface ocean CO2 system L. Kwiatkowski et al. 10.1111/gcb.16514
- Seasonal trends in the Southeast Florida current and shelf CO2 fluxes L. Zhang & R. Woosley 10.1016/j.csr.2021.104566
- Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities C. Hartin et al. 10.5194/bg-13-4329-2016
- Anthropogenic CO2, air–sea CO2 fluxes, and acidification in the Southern Ocean: results from a time-series analysis at station OISO-KERFIX (51° S–68° E) N. Metzl et al. 10.5194/os-20-725-2024
- Using present-day observations to detect when anthropogenic change forces surface ocean carbonate chemistry outside preindustrial bounds A. Sutton et al. 10.5194/bg-13-5065-2016
- Summer trends and drivers of sea surface fCO2 and pH changes observed in the southern Indian Ocean over the last two decades (1998–2019) C. Leseurre et al. 10.5194/bg-19-2599-2022
- Aragonite saturation states in estuaries along a climate gradient in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico X. Hu et al. 10.3389/fenvs.2022.951256
- Observed amplification of the seasonal CO2 cycle at the Southern Ocean Time Series E. Shadwick et al. 10.3389/fmars.2023.1281854
- Assessment of the Carbonate Chemistry Seasonal Cycles in the Southern Ocean From Persistent Observational Platforms N. Williams et al. 10.1029/2017JC012917
- Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century L. Kwiatkowski & J. Orr 10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0
- Carbon–climate feedbacks accelerate ocean acidification R. Matear & A. Lenton 10.5194/bg-15-1721-2018
18 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Sea surface aragonite saturation state variations and control mechanisms at the Gray's Reef time-series site off Georgia, USA (2006–2007) L. Xue et al. 10.1016/j.marchem.2017.05.009
- Recent progress in understanding climate thresholds P. Good et al. 10.1177/0309133317751843
- Ocean acidification and calcium carbonate saturation states in the coastal zone of the West Antarctic Peninsula E. Jones et al. 10.1016/j.dsr2.2017.01.007
- Seasonal Asymmetry in the Evolution of Surface Ocean pCO2 and pH Thermodynamic Drivers and the Influence on Sea‐Air CO2 Flux A. Fassbender et al. 10.1029/2017GB005855
- Drivers of future seasonal cycle changes in oceanic pCO2 M. Gallego et al. 10.5194/bg-15-5315-2018
- Long‐Term Changes of Carbonate Chemistry Variables Along the North American East Coast Y. Xu et al. 10.1029/2019JC015982
- Anthropogenic Intensification of Surface Ocean Interannual pCO2 Variability M. Gallego et al. 10.1029/2020GL087104
- Modified future diurnal variability of the global surface ocean CO2 system L. Kwiatkowski et al. 10.1111/gcb.16514
- Seasonal trends in the Southeast Florida current and shelf CO2 fluxes L. Zhang & R. Woosley 10.1016/j.csr.2021.104566
- Ocean acidification over the next three centuries using a simple global climate carbon-cycle model: projections and sensitivities C. Hartin et al. 10.5194/bg-13-4329-2016
- Anthropogenic CO2, air–sea CO2 fluxes, and acidification in the Southern Ocean: results from a time-series analysis at station OISO-KERFIX (51° S–68° E) N. Metzl et al. 10.5194/os-20-725-2024
- Using present-day observations to detect when anthropogenic change forces surface ocean carbonate chemistry outside preindustrial bounds A. Sutton et al. 10.5194/bg-13-5065-2016
- Summer trends and drivers of sea surface fCO2 and pH changes observed in the southern Indian Ocean over the last two decades (1998–2019) C. Leseurre et al. 10.5194/bg-19-2599-2022
- Aragonite saturation states in estuaries along a climate gradient in the northwestern Gulf of Mexico X. Hu et al. 10.3389/fenvs.2022.951256
- Observed amplification of the seasonal CO2 cycle at the Southern Ocean Time Series E. Shadwick et al. 10.3389/fmars.2023.1281854
- Assessment of the Carbonate Chemistry Seasonal Cycles in the Southern Ocean From Persistent Observational Platforms N. Williams et al. 10.1029/2017JC012917
- Diverging seasonal extremes for ocean acidification during the twenty-first century L. Kwiatkowski & J. Orr 10.1038/s41558-017-0054-0
- Carbon–climate feedbacks accelerate ocean acidification R. Matear & A. Lenton 10.5194/bg-15-1721-2018
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Latest update: 26 Jul 2025
Short summary
Our results show that accounting for oceanic CO2 seasonality is crucial to projecting the future onset of critical ocean acidification levels (i.e. aragonite undersaturation). In particular, seasonality will bring forward the initial onset of month-long undersaturation by a global average of 17 years. Importantly, widespread undersaturation is projected to occur once atmospheric CO2 reaches 496ppm in the North Pacific and 511ppm in the Southern Ocean, independent of emissions scenario.
Our results show that accounting for oceanic CO2 seasonality is crucial to projecting the future...
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