Multi-model comparison of trends and controls of near-bed oxygen concentration on the northwest European continental shelf under climate change

Galli, Giovanni; Wakelin, Sarah; Harle, James; Holt, Jason; Artioli, Yuri

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2143-2024

Articles | Volume 21, issue 8

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2143-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Special issue:

Low-oxygen environments and deoxygenation in open and coastal...

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2143-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 8

Research article

|

29 Apr 2024

Research article |

| 29 Apr 2024

Multi-model comparison of trends and controls of near-bed oxygen concentration on the northwest European continental shelf under climate change

Giovanni Galli, Sarah Wakelin, James Harle, Jason Holt, and Yuri Artioli

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-2143-2024-supplement

Data sets

Selected near-bottom and other variables from NW European shelf physics-biogeochemistry downscaled ocean climate projections, 3-member ensemble Giovanni Galli et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8283355

Northwest European Shelf daily and monthly physical-biogeochemical data (1990-2099) from NEMO-ERSEM coupled physics-biogeochemistry climate model forced by IPSL-CM5A-MR under scenario RCP8.5 Giovanni Galli et al. https://doi.org/10.5285/0786d770-ba54-0e57-e063-6c86abc09fdf

Model code and software

pmlmodelling/NEMO3.6-FABM: v2022 Marine Systems Modelling group (PML) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11060265

ERSEM Marine Systems Modelling group (PML) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4075315

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Short summary

This work shows that, under a high-emission scenario, oxygen concentration in deep water of parts of the North Sea and Celtic Sea can become critically low (hypoxia) towards the end of this century. The extent and frequency of hypoxia depends on the intensity of climate change projected by different climate models. This is the result of a complex combination of factors like warming, increase in stratification, changes in the currents and changes in biological processes.