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Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1115-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 4
Research article
 | 
28 Feb 2025
Research article |  | 28 Feb 2025

Long-term impacts of global temperature stabilization and overshoot on exploited marine species

Anne L. Morée, Fabrice Lacroix, William W. L. Cheung, and Thomas L. Frölicher

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Latest update: 02 May 2026
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Short summary
Using novel Earth system model simulations and applying the Aerobic Growth Index, we show that only about half of the habitat loss for marine species is realized when temperature stabilization is initially reached. The maximum habitat loss happens over a century after peak warming in a temperature overshoot scenario peaking at 2 °C before stabilizing at 1.5 °C. We also emphasize that species adaptation may be key in mitigating the long-term impacts of temperature stabilization and overshoot.
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