Lingulodinium machaerophorum expansion over the last centuries in the Caspian Sea reflects global warming

Abstract. We analysed dinoflagellate cyst assemblages in four short sediment cores, two of them dated by radionuclides, taken in the south basin of the Caspian Sea. The interpretation of the four sequences is supported by a collection of 27 lagoonal or marine surface sediment samples. A sharp increase in the biomass of the dinocyst occurs after 1967, especially owing to Lingulodinium machaerophorum. Considering nine other cores covering parts or the whole of Holocene, this species started to develop in the Caspian Sea only during the last three millennia. By analysing instrumental data and collating existing reconstructions of sea level changes over the last few millennia, we show that the main forcing of the increase of L. machaerophorum percentages and of the recent dinocyst abundance is global climate change, especially sea surface temperature increase. Sea level fluctuations likely have a minor impact. We argue that the Caspian Sea has entered the Anthropocene.