Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-141
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-2017-141
12 May 2017
 | 12 May 2017
Status: this discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Biogeosciences (BG). The manuscript was not accepted for further review after discussion.

Accounting for multiple forcing factors and product substitution enforces the cooling effect of boreal forests

Eero Nikinmaa, Tuomo Kalliokoski, Kari Minkkinen, Jaana Bäck, Michael Boy, Yao Gao, Nina Janasik-Honkela, Janne I. Hukkinen, Maarit Kallio, Markku Kulmala, Nea Kuusinen, Annikki Mäkelä, Brent D. Matthies, Mikko Peltoniemi, Risto Sievänen, Ditte Taipale, Lauri Valsta, Anni Vanhatalo, Martin Welp, Luxi Zhou, Putian Zhou, and Frank Berninger

Abstract. There is dispute over the climate change mitigating effect of boreal forest management due to the contrasting influence it has on different vectors influencing radiative forcing (RF). For the first time, this study has combined the estimated effects of carbon sequestration in forests and wood products, the surface albedo of forests, the direct and indirect forcing of secondary organic aerosols and the avoidance of fossil emissions by product substitution, both in the current and predicted 2050 climate. The aerosol effect was comparable in magnitude to that of carbon sequestration and increased in importance in a warmer 2050 climate. Harvesting decreased the formation of climate cooling aerosols. The aerosol effect was also larger than the opposing impact of increased surface albedo due to clear cutting in conifer forests. When all above mentioned RF factors were accounted for, the RF of conifer-dominated stands was less negative than that of broadleaf-dominated stands, despite the higher carbon sequestration of the former. Considering also the cooling effect of product substitution, the differences in the RF impact of management alternatives that maintained or increased forest biomass were small. However, the outcome depended heavily on the wood use pattern and the assumed product substitution. A substantial increase in harvest with a clear increase in the share of small dimension fiber and fuel wood use led to a clear climate warming effect in the simulations.

Publisher's note: Copernicus Publications remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims made in the text, published maps, institutional affiliations, or any other geographical representation in this preprint. The responsibility to include appropriate place names lies with the authors.
Eero Nikinmaa, Tuomo Kalliokoski, Kari Minkkinen, Jaana Bäck, Michael Boy, Yao Gao, Nina Janasik-Honkela, Janne I. Hukkinen, Maarit Kallio, Markku Kulmala, Nea Kuusinen, Annikki Mäkelä, Brent D. Matthies, Mikko Peltoniemi, Risto Sievänen, Ditte Taipale, Lauri Valsta, Anni Vanhatalo, Martin Welp, Luxi Zhou, Putian Zhou, and Frank Berninger
 
Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement
Eero Nikinmaa, Tuomo Kalliokoski, Kari Minkkinen, Jaana Bäck, Michael Boy, Yao Gao, Nina Janasik-Honkela, Janne I. Hukkinen, Maarit Kallio, Markku Kulmala, Nea Kuusinen, Annikki Mäkelä, Brent D. Matthies, Mikko Peltoniemi, Risto Sievänen, Ditte Taipale, Lauri Valsta, Anni Vanhatalo, Martin Welp, Luxi Zhou, Putian Zhou, and Frank Berninger
Eero Nikinmaa, Tuomo Kalliokoski, Kari Minkkinen, Jaana Bäck, Michael Boy, Yao Gao, Nina Janasik-Honkela, Janne I. Hukkinen, Maarit Kallio, Markku Kulmala, Nea Kuusinen, Annikki Mäkelä, Brent D. Matthies, Mikko Peltoniemi, Risto Sievänen, Ditte Taipale, Lauri Valsta, Anni Vanhatalo, Martin Welp, Luxi Zhou, Putian Zhou, and Frank Berninger

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Short summary
We estimated the impact of boreal forest management on climate, considering the effects of carbon, albedo, aerosols, and effects of industrial wood use. We made analyses both in current and warmer climate of 2050. The aerosol effect was comparable to that of carbon sequestration. Deciduous trees may have a large potential for mitigation due to their high albedo and aerosol effects. If the forests will be used more intensively and mainly for pulp and energy, the warming influence is clear.
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