Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation: a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models

Van Oijen, M.; Balkovi, J.; Beer, C.; Cameron, D. R.; Ciais, P.; Cramer, W.; Kato, T.; Kuhnert, M.; Martin, R.; Myneni, R.; Rammig, A.; Rolinski, S.; Soussana, J.-F.; Thonicke, K.; Van der Velde, M.; Xu, L.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014

Articles | Volume 11, issue 22

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014

© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue:

Climate extremes and biogeochemical cycles in the terrestrial...

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014

© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 11, issue 22

Research article

|

26 Nov 2014

Research article |

| 26 Nov 2014

Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation: a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models

M. Van Oijen, J. Balkovi, C. Beer, D. R. Cameron, P. Ciais, W. Cramer, T. Kato, M. Kuhnert, R. Martin, R. Myneni, A. Rammig, S. Rolinski, J.-F. Soussana, K. Thonicke, M. Van der Velde, and L. Xu

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Final revised paper (published on 26 Nov 2014)
Preprint (discussion started on 05 Jun 2014)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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RC C3201: 'Strong, interesting; needs to discuss model limitations', Anonymous Referee #1, 03 Jul 2014
- AC C4696: 'Response to comments C3201 (Referee # 1)', Marcel van Oijen, 28 Aug 2014
RC C3468: 'Referee Comment', Anonymous Referee #2, 14 Jul 2014
- AC C4700: 'Response to comments C3468 (Referee # 2)', Marcel van Oijen, 28 Aug 2014

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

AR by Marcel van Oijen on behalf of the Authors (25 Sep 2014) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Publish as is (23 Oct 2014) by Kaiyu Guan

AR by Marcel van Oijen on behalf of the Authors (27 Oct 2014)

Short summary

We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may alter drought risks in European ecosystems. The conclusions are (1) drought will pose increasing risks to productivity in the Mediterranean area; (2) this is because severe droughts will become more frequent, not because ecosystems will become more vulnerable; (3) future C sequestration will be at risk because carbon gain in primary productivity will be more affected than carbon loss in respiration.