Articles | Volume 11, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014
Research article
 | 
26 Nov 2014
Research article |  | 26 Nov 2014

Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation: a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models

M. Van Oijen, J. Balkovi, C. Beer, D. R. Cameron, P. Ciais, W. Cramer, T. Kato, M. Kuhnert, R. Martin, R. Myneni, A. Rammig, S. Rolinski, J.-F. Soussana, K. Thonicke, M. Van der Velde, and L. Xu

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Short summary
We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may alter drought risks in European ecosystems. The conclusions are (1) drought will pose increasing risks to productivity in the Mediterranean area; (2) this is because severe droughts will become more frequent, not because ecosystems will become more vulnerable; (3) future C sequestration will be at risk because carbon gain in primary productivity will be more affected than carbon loss in respiration.
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