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Volume 11, issue 22
Biogeosciences, 11, 6357–6375, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Special issue: Climate extremes and biogeochemical cycles in the terrestrial...

Biogeosciences, 11, 6357–6375, 2014
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 26 Nov 2014

Research article | 26 Nov 2014

Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation: a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models

M. Van Oijen et al.

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We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may alter drought risks in European ecosystems. The conclusions are (1) drought will pose increasing risks to productivity in the Mediterranean area; (2) this is because severe droughts will become more frequent, not because ecosystems will become more vulnerable; (3) future C sequestration will be at risk because carbon gain in primary productivity will be more affected than carbon loss in respiration.
We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may...
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