Articles | Volume 11, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-11-6357-2014
© Author(s) 2014. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
26 Nov 2014
Research article |
| 26 Nov 2014
Impact of droughts on the carbon cycle in European vegetation: a probabilistic risk analysis using six vegetation models
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh, EH26 0QB, UK
Bioforsk, Saerheim, Norway
J. Balkovi
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria
C. Beer
Max-Planck-Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
Department of Applied Environmental Science (ITM), Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
D. R. Cameron
Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Edinburgh, EH26 0QB, UK
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
W. Cramer
Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Aix Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, 13545 Aix-en-Provence, France
T. Kato
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Research Faculty of Agriculture, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-8589 Japan
M. Kuhnert
University of Aberdeen, School of Biological Sciences, Aberdeen, UK
R. Martin
INRA, Grassland Ecosystem Research, (UR 874), 63100 Clermont-Ferrand, France
R. Myneni
Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, USA
A. Rammig
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg 31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
S. Rolinski
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg 31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
J.-F. Soussana
INRA, Grassland Ecosystem Research, (UR 874), 63100 Clermont-Ferrand, France
K. Thonicke
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Telegrafenberg 31, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
M. Van der Velde
Bioforsk, Saerheim, Norway
Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, Boston, USA
Institute of the Environment and Sustainability (IoES), University of California, Los Angeles, USA
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Short summary
We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may alter drought risks in European ecosystems. The conclusions are (1) drought will pose increasing risks to productivity in the Mediterranean area; (2) this is because severe droughts will become more frequent, not because ecosystems will become more vulnerable; (3) future C sequestration will be at risk because carbon gain in primary productivity will be more affected than carbon loss in respiration.
We use a new risk analysis method, and six vegetation models, to analyse how climate change may...
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