Articles | Volume 12, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3301-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3301-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model
Program in Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Princeton University, Princeton, USA
J. Lin
Dept. of Computer Science, Princeton University, Princeton, USA
T. L. Frölicher
Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and for Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Switzerland
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- Mechanisms and Early Detections of Multidecadal Oxygen Changes in the Interior Subpolar North Atlantic J. Tjiputra et al. 10.1029/2018GL077096
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- Inherent uncertainty disguises attribution of reduced atmospheric CO2 growth to CO2 emission reductions for up to a decade A. Spring et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abc443
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- Contrasting Impact of Future CO2Emission Scenarios on the Extent of CaCO3Mineral Undersaturation in the Humboldt Current System A. Franco et al. 10.1002/2018JC013857
- On the Relationship between Regional Ocean Heat Content and Sea Surface Height J. Fasullo & P. Gent 10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0920.1
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- Altimeter-era emergence of the patterns of forced sea-level rise in climate models and implications for the future J. Fasullo & R. Nerem 10.1073/pnas.1813233115
- Hiatus-like decades in the absence of equatorial Pacific cooling and accelerated global ocean heat uptake L. von Känel et al. 10.1002/2017GL073578
- Butterfly effect and a self-modulating El Niño response to global warming W. Cai et al. 10.1038/s41586-020-2641-x
- Contrasting Phase Changes of Precipitation Annual Cycle Between Land and Ocean Under Global Warming F. Song et al. 10.1029/2020GL090327
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- Quantifying stochastic uncertainty in detection time of human-caused climate signals B. Santer et al. 10.1073/pnas.1904586116
- Change in future climate due to Antarctic meltwater B. Bronselaer et al. 10.1038/s41586-018-0712-z
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- Using Multiple Large Ensembles to Elucidate the Discrepancy Between the 1979–2019 Modeled and Observed Antarctic Sea Ice Trends R. Chemke & L. Polvani 10.1029/2020GL088339
- Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice D. Bonan et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/abe0ec
- When can ocean acidification impacts be detected from decadal alkalinity measurements? B. Carter et al. 10.1002/2015GB005308
- Modeled Effect of Coastal Biogeochemical Processes, Climate Variability, and Ocean Acidification on Aragonite Saturation State in the Bering Sea D. Pilcher et al. 10.3389/fmars.2018.00508
- The influence of ENSO on Arctic sea ice in large ensembles and observations R. Clancy et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0958.1
- Current and Future Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Carbon Uptake Are Dominated by Internal Variability H. Li & T. Ilyina 10.1002/2017GL075370
- Contribution of climatic changes in mean and variability to monthly temperature and precipitation extremes K. van der Wiel & R. Bintanja 10.1038/s43247-020-00077-4
- Robust Inter‐Hemispheric Asymmetry in the Response to Symmetric Volcanic Forcing in Model Large Ensembles A. Pauling et al. 10.1029/2021GL092558
- Ocean (de)oxygenation from the Last Glacial Maximum to the twenty-first century: insights from Earth System models L. Bopp et al. 10.1098/rsta.2016.0323
- Quantifying the role of internal variability in the temperature we expect to observe in the coming decades N. Maher et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab7d02
- Environmental records from coral skeletons: A decade of novel insights and innovation D. Thompson 10.1002/wcc.745
- Contrasting futures for ocean and society from different anthropogenic CO 2 emissions scenarios J. Gattuso et al. 10.1126/science.aac4722
- El Niño–Like Physical and Biogeochemical Ocean Response to Tropical Eruptions Y. Eddebbar et al. 10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0458.1
- Partitioning climate projection uncertainty with multiple large ensembles and CMIP5/6 F. Lehner et al. 10.5194/esd-11-491-2020
- Climate, ecosystems, and planetary futures: The challenge to predict life in Earth system models G. Bonan & S. Doney 10.1126/science.aam8328
- Assessment of time of emergence of anthropogenic deoxygenation and warming: insights from a CESM simulation from 850 to 2100 CE A. Hameau et al. 10.5194/bg-16-1755-2019
- Nonstationary Relationship Between Autumn Arctic Sea Ice and the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation E. Kolstad & J. Screen 10.1029/2019GL083059
- Rapid emergence of climate change in environmental drivers of marine ecosystems S. Henson et al. 10.1038/ncomms14682
- Internal variability in European summer temperatures at 1.5 °C and 2 °C of global warming L. Suarez-Gutierrez et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aaba58
- The Emergence and Transient Nature of Arctic Amplification in Coupled Climate Models M. Holland & L. Landrum 10.3389/feart.2021.719024
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- The recent state and variability of the carbonate system of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and adjacent basins in the context of ocean acidification A. Beaupré-Laperrière et al. 10.5194/bg-17-3923-2020
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Short summary
A large initial-condition ensemble suite of simulations with an Earth system model is applied to evaluate emergence characteristics of four ocean ecosystem drivers under climate change. The drivers considered are warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and perturbations to biological productivity. The spatial and temporal hierarchies of the emergence of these drivers are considered, using concepts of both time of emergence (ToE) and confidence intervals.
A large initial-condition ensemble suite of simulations with an Earth system model is applied to...
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