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Volume 12, issue 11
Biogeosciences, 12, 3301–3320, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3301-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Biogeosciences, 12, 3301–3320, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-3301-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Research article 03 Jun 2015

Research article | 03 Jun 2015

Emergence of multiple ocean ecosystem drivers in a large ensemble suite with an Earth system model

K. B. Rodgers et al.

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Allen, G. R.: Conservation hotspots of biodiversity and endemism for Indo-Pacific coral reef fishes, Aquatic Conserv. Mar. Freshw. Ecosyst. 18, 541–556, 2008.
Boldt, J. L., Martone, R., Samhouri, J., Perry, R. I., Itoh, S., Chung, I. K., Takahashi, M., and Yoshie, N.: Developing ecosystem indicators for responses to multiple stressors, Oceanography 27, 116–133, 2014.
Bopp, L., Monfray, P., Aumont, O., Dufresne, J.L., Le Treut, H., Madec, G., Terray, L., and Orr, J. C.: Potential impact of climate change on marine export production, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 15, 81–99, 2001.
Bopp, L., Resplandy, L., Orr, J. C., Doney, S. C., Dunne, J. P., Gehlen, M., Halloran, P., Heinze, C., Ilyina, T., Séférian, R., Tjiputra, J., and Vichi, M.: Multiple stressors of ocean ecosystems in the 21st century: projections with CMIP5 models, Biogeosciences, 10, 6225–6245, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-6225-2013, 2013.
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A large initial-condition ensemble suite of simulations with an Earth system model is applied to evaluate emergence characteristics of four ocean ecosystem drivers under climate change. The drivers considered are warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and perturbations to biological productivity. The spatial and temporal hierarchies of the emergence of these drivers are considered, using concepts of both time of emergence (ToE) and confidence intervals.
A large initial-condition ensemble suite of simulations with an Earth system model is applied to...
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