Articles | Volume 12, issue 14 
            
                
                    
            
            
            https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015
                    © Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under 
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
                the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-4385-2015
                    © Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under 
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
                the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Assessment of model estimates of land-atmosphere CO2 exchange across Northern Eurasia
                                            Climate System Research Center, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, USA
                                        
                                    A. D. McGuire
                                            US Geological Survey, Alaska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, Alaska 99775, USA
                                        
                                    J. S. Kimball
                                            NTSG, University of Montana, Missoula, MT, USA
                                        
                                    
                                            Climate System Research Center, Department of Geosciences, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA, USA
                                        
                                    D. Lawrence
                                            National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA
                                        
                                    
                                            Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
                                        
                                    
                                            Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of  Washington, Seattle, WA, USA
                                        
                                    C. Delire
                                            CRNM-GAME, Unité mixte de recherche CNRS/Meteo-France (UMR 3589), 42 av Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, CEDEX, France
                                        
                                    
                                            Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA
                                        
                                    A. MacDougall
                                            School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada
                                        
                                    S. Peng
                                            Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,  CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
                                        
                                    
                                            CNRS and Université Grenoble Alpes, LGGE, 38041, Grenoble, France
                                        
                                    A. Rinke
                                            State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
                                        
                                    
                                            Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam, Germany
                                        
                                    
                                            Department of Integrated Climate Change Projection Research, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
                                        
                                    
                                            Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, SE 223 62 Lund, Sweden
                                        
                                    R. Alkama
                                            CRNM-GAME, Unité mixte de recherche CNRS/Meteo-France (UMR 3589), 42 av Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, CEDEX, France
                                        
                                    T. J. Bohn
                                            School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
                                        
                                    
                                            Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement,  CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
                                        
                                    B. Decharme
                                            CRNM-GAME, Unité mixte de recherche CNRS/Meteo-France (UMR 3589), 42 av Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, CEDEX, France
                                        
                                    I. Gouttevin
                                            CNRS and Université Grenoble Alpes, LGGE, 38041, Grenoble, France
                                        
                                    
                                            Irstea, UR HHLY, 5 rue de la Doua, CS 70077, 69626 Villeurbanne, CEDEX, France
                                        
                                    T. Hajima
                                            Department of Integrated Climate Change Projection Research, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
                                        
                                    
                                            State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
                                        
                                    G. Krinner
                                            CNRS and Université Grenoble Alpes, LGGE, 38041, Grenoble, France
                                        
                                    D. P. Lettenmaier
                                            Department of Geography, University of California, Los Angeles, CA, USA
                                        
                                    P. Miller
                                            Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, SE 223 62 Lund, Sweden
                                        
                                    J. C. Moore
                                            State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, College of Global Change and Earth System Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China
                                        
                                    
                                            Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, Sölvegatan 12, SE 223 62 Lund, Sweden
                                        
                                    T. Sueyoshi
                                            Department of Integrated Climate Change Projection Research, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Kanagawa, Japan
                                        
                                    
                                            National Institute of Polar Research, Tachikawa, Tokyo, Japan
                                        
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Cited
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area W. Wang et al. 10.5194/tc-10-287-2016
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- Evaluation of air–soil temperature relationships simulated by land surface models during winter across the permafrost region W. Wang et al. 10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016
- Disentangling future effects of climate change and forest disturbance on vegetation composition and land surface properties of the boreal forest L. Layritz et al. 10.5194/bg-22-3635-2025
- Shifted energy fluxes, increased Bowen ratios, and reduced thaw depths linked with drainage-induced changes in permafrost ecosystem structure M. Göckede et al. 10.5194/tc-11-2975-2017
- Soil respiration strongly offsets carbon uptake in Alaska and Northwest Canada J. Watts et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1222
- Radial growth responses of two dominant conifers to climate in the Altai Mountains, Central Asia J. Kang et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108297
- A review of and perspectives on global change modeling for Northern Eurasia E. Monier et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7aae
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- Trends in Satellite Earth Observation for Permafrost Related Analyses—A Review M. Philipp et al. 10.3390/rs13061217
- Non-uniform seasonal warming regulates vegetation greening and atmospheric CO 2 amplification over northern lands Z. Li et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aae9ad
- Future nitrogen availability and its effect on carbon sequestration in Northern Eurasia D. Kicklighter et al. 10.1038/s41467-019-10944-0
- Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties A. Virkkala et al. 10.1111/gcb.15659
- Space‐Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic‐Boreal Zone B. Duncan et al. 10.1029/2019RG000652
- The increasing rate of net carbon uptake in Eurasia has been declining since the early 2000s M. Xie et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176890
- Simulated high-latitude soil thermal dynamics during the past 4 decades S. Peng et al. 10.5194/tc-10-179-2016
- Model simulations of arctic biogeochemistry and permafrost extent are highly sensitive to the implemented snow scheme in LPJ-GUESS A. Pongracz et al. 10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021
- Specific patterns of XCO2 observed by GOSAT during 2009–2016 and assessed with model simulations over China N. Bie et al. 10.1007/s11430-018-9377-7
- Rising vegetation activity dominates growing water use efficiency in the Asian permafrost region from 1900 to 2100 F. Yuan et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139587
- Climate change impacts on a pine stand in Central Siberia F. Suckow et al. 10.1007/s10113-015-0915-x
- Modeling the Effect of Moss Cover on Soil Temperature and Carbon Fluxes at a Tundra Site in Northeastern Siberia H. Park et al. 10.1029/2018JG004491
- Development and evaluation of CNRM Earth system model – CNRM-ESM1 R. Séférian et al. 10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016
- Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change A. McGuire et al. 10.1073/pnas.1719903115
- Comparison between remote sensing and a dynamic vegetation model for estimating terrestrial primary production of Africa J. Ardö 10.1186/s13021-015-0018-5
24 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Diagnostic and model dependent uncertainty of simulated Tibetan permafrost area W. Wang et al. 10.5194/tc-10-287-2016
- Vegetation Functional Properties Determine Uncertainty of Simulated Ecosystem Productivity: A Traceability Analysis in the East Asian Monsoon Region E. Cui et al. 10.1029/2018GB005909
- Evaluation of air–soil temperature relationships simulated by land surface models during winter across the permafrost region W. Wang et al. 10.5194/tc-10-1721-2016
- Disentangling future effects of climate change and forest disturbance on vegetation composition and land surface properties of the boreal forest L. Layritz et al. 10.5194/bg-22-3635-2025
- Shifted energy fluxes, increased Bowen ratios, and reduced thaw depths linked with drainage-induced changes in permafrost ecosystem structure M. Göckede et al. 10.5194/tc-11-2975-2017
- Soil respiration strongly offsets carbon uptake in Alaska and Northwest Canada J. Watts et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac1222
- Radial growth responses of two dominant conifers to climate in the Altai Mountains, Central Asia J. Kang et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2020.108297
- A review of and perspectives on global change modeling for Northern Eurasia E. Monier et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7aae
- The GRENE-TEA model intercomparison project (GTMIP): overview and experiment protocol for Stage 1 S. Miyazaki et al. 10.5194/gmd-8-2841-2015
- Spatio-temporal variations in water use efficiency and its drivers in China over the last three decades S. Sun et al. 10.1016/j.ecolind.2018.07.003
- Trends in Satellite Earth Observation for Permafrost Related Analyses—A Review M. Philipp et al. 10.3390/rs13061217
- Non-uniform seasonal warming regulates vegetation greening and atmospheric CO 2 amplification over northern lands Z. Li et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aae9ad
- Future nitrogen availability and its effect on carbon sequestration in Northern Eurasia D. Kicklighter et al. 10.1038/s41467-019-10944-0
- Statistical upscaling of ecosystem CO2 fluxes across the terrestrial tundra and boreal domain: Regional patterns and uncertainties A. Virkkala et al. 10.1111/gcb.15659
- Space‐Based Observations for Understanding Changes in the Arctic‐Boreal Zone B. Duncan et al. 10.1029/2019RG000652
- The increasing rate of net carbon uptake in Eurasia has been declining since the early 2000s M. Xie et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.176890
- Simulated high-latitude soil thermal dynamics during the past 4 decades S. Peng et al. 10.5194/tc-10-179-2016
- Model simulations of arctic biogeochemistry and permafrost extent are highly sensitive to the implemented snow scheme in LPJ-GUESS A. Pongracz et al. 10.5194/bg-18-5767-2021
- Specific patterns of XCO2 observed by GOSAT during 2009–2016 and assessed with model simulations over China N. Bie et al. 10.1007/s11430-018-9377-7
- Rising vegetation activity dominates growing water use efficiency in the Asian permafrost region from 1900 to 2100 F. Yuan et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.139587
- Climate change impacts on a pine stand in Central Siberia F. Suckow et al. 10.1007/s10113-015-0915-x
- Modeling the Effect of Moss Cover on Soil Temperature and Carbon Fluxes at a Tundra Site in Northeastern Siberia H. Park et al. 10.1029/2018JG004491
- Development and evaluation of CNRM Earth system model – CNRM-ESM1 R. Séférian et al. 10.5194/gmd-9-1423-2016
- Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change A. McGuire et al. 10.1073/pnas.1719903115
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 31 Oct 2025
Short summary
                    We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across Northern Eurasia over the period 1960-1990. Model estimates were assessed against independent ground and satellite measurements. We find that the models show a weakening of the CO2 sink over time; the models tend to overestimate respiration, causing an underestimate in NEP; the model range in regional NEP is twice the multimodel mean. Residence time for soil carbon decreased, amid a gain in carbon storage.
                    We used outputs from nine models to better understand land-atmosphere CO2 exchanges across...
                    
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