Articles | Volume 13, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2123-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
12 Apr 2016
Research article |
| 12 Apr 2016
Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach
Andrew H. MacDougall
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
Reto Knutti
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland
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Cited
42 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Mapping simulated circum-Arctic organic carbon, ground ice, and vulnerability of ice-rich permafrost to degradation K. Saito et al. 10.1186/s40645-020-00345-z
- A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf D. Woodard et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
- Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond H. Fischer et al. 10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0
- WETMETH 1.0: a new wetland methane model for implementation in Earth system models C. Nzotungicimpaye et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-6215-2021
- Estimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate change A. MacDougall 10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021
- Limitations of the 1 % experiment as the benchmark idealized experiment for carbon cycle intercomparison in C4MIP A. MacDougall 10.5194/gmd-12-597-2019
- Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets J. Rogelj et al. 10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z
- Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios C. Koven et al. 10.5194/esd-13-885-2022
- Estimation of Permafrost SOC Stock and Turnover Time Using a Land Surface Model With Vertical Heterogeneity of Permafrost Soils S. Shu et al. 10.1029/2020GB006585
- SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise M. Martínez Montero et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022
- Modelling the terrestrial nitrogen and phosphorus cycle in the UVic ESCM M. De Sisto et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-4113-2023
- Earth system responses to carbon dioxide removal as exemplified by ocean alkalinity enhancement: tradeoffs and lags A. Jeltsch-Thömmes et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4401
- A vertical representation of soil carbon in the JULES land surface scheme (vn4.3_permafrost) with a focus on permafrost regions E. Burke et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017
- Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals S. Natali et al. 10.1073/pnas.2100163118
- The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions C. Jones et al. 10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019
- Numerical model to simulate long-term soil organic carbon and ground ice budget with permafrost and ice sheets (SOC-ICE-v1.0) K. Saito et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-521-2021
- Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release T. Gasser et al. 10.1038/s41561-018-0227-0
- Evaluation of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model version 2.10 (UVic ESCM 2.10) N. Mengis et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020
- Simulated carbon cycle and Earth system response to atmospheric CO2 removal L. Cao et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2023.03.001
- Plant–Environment Interactions in the Low Arctic Torngat Mountains of Labrador E. Davis et al. 10.1007/s10021-020-00577-6
- Peatlands and their carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes from 1990 to 2300: a process-based biogeochemistry model analysis B. Zhao & Q. Zhuang 10.5194/bg-20-251-2023
- Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic K. Miner et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3
- Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic E. Schuur et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847
- Impact of deforestation on subsurface temperature profiles: implications for the borehole paleoclimate record A. MacDougall & H. Beltrami 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7394
- Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017
- Topological climate change with permafrost feedback K. Kypke et al. 10.1088/1742-6596/1730/1/012090
- Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433
- ChAP 1.0: a stationary tropospheric sulfur cycle for Earth system models of intermediate complexity A. Eliseev et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-7725-2021
- Quantifying the Terrestrial Carbon Feedback to Anthropogenic Carbon Emission P. Goodwin 10.1029/2019EF001258
- Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks E. Burke et al. 10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
- Permafrost Degradation Diminishes Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration Capacity on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau L. Liu et al. 10.1029/2021GB007068
- Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2emissions V. Chimuka et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023
- Enhancement of non‐CO2 radiative forcing via intensified carbon cycle feedbacks A. MacDougall & R. Knutti 10.1002/2016GL068964
- A review of and perspectives on global change modeling for Northern Eurasia E. Monier et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7aae
- Greenhouse gas production in degrading ice-rich permafrost deposits in northeastern Siberia J. Walz et al. 10.5194/bg-15-5423-2018
- Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model T. Yokohata et al. 10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8
- Delaying methane mitigation increases the risk of breaching the 2 °C warming limit C. Nzotungicimpaye et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00898-z
- Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century P. Groisman et al. 10.1186/s40645-017-0154-5
- Ecological Response to Permafrost Thaw and Consequences for Local and Global Ecosystem Services E. Schuur & M. Mack 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032349
- Carbon Dioxide and Methane Release Following Abrupt Thaw of Pleistocene Permafrost Deposits in Arctic Siberia C. Knoblauch et al. 10.1029/2021JG006543
- Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.5194/esd-14-55-2023
- Effect of terrestrial nutrient limitation on the estimation of the remaining carbon budget M. De Sisto & A. MacDougall 10.5194/bg-21-4853-2024
42 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Mapping simulated circum-Arctic organic carbon, ground ice, and vulnerability of ice-rich permafrost to degradation K. Saito et al. 10.1186/s40645-020-00345-z
- A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf D. Woodard et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
- Palaeoclimate constraints on the impact of 2 °C anthropogenic warming and beyond H. Fischer et al. 10.1038/s41561-018-0146-0
- WETMETH 1.0: a new wetland methane model for implementation in Earth system models C. Nzotungicimpaye et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-6215-2021
- Estimated effect of the permafrost carbon feedback on the zero emissions commitment to climate change A. MacDougall 10.5194/bg-18-4937-2021
- Limitations of the 1 % experiment as the benchmark idealized experiment for carbon cycle intercomparison in C4MIP A. MacDougall 10.5194/gmd-12-597-2019
- Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets J. Rogelj et al. 10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z
- Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios C. Koven et al. 10.5194/esd-13-885-2022
- Estimation of Permafrost SOC Stock and Turnover Time Using a Land Surface Model With Vertical Heterogeneity of Permafrost Soils S. Shu et al. 10.1029/2020GB006585
- SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise M. Martínez Montero et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022
- Modelling the terrestrial nitrogen and phosphorus cycle in the UVic ESCM M. De Sisto et al. 10.5194/gmd-16-4113-2023
- Earth system responses to carbon dioxide removal as exemplified by ocean alkalinity enhancement: tradeoffs and lags A. Jeltsch-Thömmes et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad4401
- A vertical representation of soil carbon in the JULES land surface scheme (vn4.3_permafrost) with a focus on permafrost regions E. Burke et al. 10.5194/gmd-10-959-2017
- Permafrost carbon feedbacks threaten global climate goals S. Natali et al. 10.1073/pnas.2100163118
- The Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project (ZECMIP) contribution to C4MIP: quantifying committed climate changes following zero carbon emissions C. Jones et al. 10.5194/gmd-12-4375-2019
- Numerical model to simulate long-term soil organic carbon and ground ice budget with permafrost and ice sheets (SOC-ICE-v1.0) K. Saito et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-521-2021
- Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release T. Gasser et al. 10.1038/s41561-018-0227-0
- Evaluation of the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model version 2.10 (UVic ESCM 2.10) N. Mengis et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-4183-2020
- Simulated carbon cycle and Earth system response to atmospheric CO2 removal L. Cao et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2023.03.001
- Plant–Environment Interactions in the Low Arctic Torngat Mountains of Labrador E. Davis et al. 10.1007/s10021-020-00577-6
- Peatlands and their carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes from 1990 to 2300: a process-based biogeochemistry model analysis B. Zhao & Q. Zhuang 10.5194/bg-20-251-2023
- Permafrost carbon emissions in a changing Arctic K. Miner et al. 10.1038/s43017-021-00230-3
- Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic E. Schuur et al. 10.1146/annurev-environ-012220-011847
- Impact of deforestation on subsurface temperature profiles: implications for the borehole paleoclimate record A. MacDougall & H. Beltrami 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7394
- Carbon stocks and fluxes in the high latitudes: using site-level data to evaluate Earth system models S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/bg-14-5143-2017
- Topological climate change with permafrost feedback K. Kypke et al. 10.1088/1742-6596/1730/1/012090
- Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433
- ChAP 1.0: a stationary tropospheric sulfur cycle for Earth system models of intermediate complexity A. Eliseev et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-7725-2021
- Quantifying the Terrestrial Carbon Feedback to Anthropogenic Carbon Emission P. Goodwin 10.1029/2019EF001258
- Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks E. Burke et al. 10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
- Permafrost Degradation Diminishes Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration Capacity on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau L. Liu et al. 10.1029/2021GB007068
- Quantifying land carbon cycle feedbacks under negative CO2emissions V. Chimuka et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2283-2023
- Enhancement of non‐CO2 radiative forcing via intensified carbon cycle feedbacks A. MacDougall & R. Knutti 10.1002/2016GL068964
- A review of and perspectives on global change modeling for Northern Eurasia E. Monier et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aa7aae
- Greenhouse gas production in degrading ice-rich permafrost deposits in northeastern Siberia J. Walz et al. 10.5194/bg-15-5423-2018
- Future projection of greenhouse gas emissions due to permafrost degradation using a simple numerical scheme with a global land surface model T. Yokohata et al. 10.1186/s40645-020-00366-8
- Delaying methane mitigation increases the risk of breaching the 2 °C warming limit C. Nzotungicimpaye et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00898-z
- Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century P. Groisman et al. 10.1186/s40645-017-0154-5
- Ecological Response to Permafrost Thaw and Consequences for Local and Global Ecosystem Services E. Schuur & M. Mack 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032349
- Carbon Dioxide and Methane Release Following Abrupt Thaw of Pleistocene Permafrost Deposits in Arctic Siberia C. Knoblauch et al. 10.1029/2021JG006543
- Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.5194/esd-14-55-2023
- Effect of terrestrial nutrient limitation on the estimation of the remaining carbon budget M. De Sisto & A. MacDougall 10.5194/bg-21-4853-2024
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Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
The soils of the permafrost region are estimated to hold 1100 to 1500 billion tonnes of carbon. As climate change progresses much of this permafrost is expected to thaw and the carbon within it decay. Here we conduct numerical experiments with a climate model to estimate with formal uncertainty bounds the release of carbon from permafrost soils. Our simulations suggest that the permafrost carbon will make a significant but not cataclysmic contribution to climate change over the next centuries.
The soils of the permafrost region are estimated to hold 1100 to 1500 billion tonnes of carbon....
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