Articles | Volume 13, issue 7
Research article
12 Apr 2016
Research article |  | 12 Apr 2016

Projecting the release of carbon from permafrost soils using a perturbed parameter ensemble modelling approach

Andrew H. MacDougall and Reto Knutti

Related authors

Modelling the terrestrial nitrogen and phosphorus cycle in the UVic ESCM
Makcim L. De Sisto, Andrew H. MacDougall, Nadine Mengis, and Sophia Antoniello
Geosci. Model Dev., 16, 4113–4136,,, 2023
Short summary
Effect of terrestrial nutrient limitation on the estimation of the remaining carbon budget
Makcim L. De Sisto and Andrew H. MacDougall
Biogeosciences Discuss.,,, 2023
Revised manuscript under review for BG
Short summary
Continental heat storage: contributions from the ground, inland waters, and permafrost thawing
Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Hugo Beltrami, Almudena García-García, Gerhard Krinner, Moritz Langer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Jan Nitzbon, Jian Peng, Karina von Schuckmann, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Wim Thiery, Inne Vanderkelen, and Tonghua Wu
Earth Syst. Dynam., 14, 609–627,,, 2023
Short summary
Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?
Karina von Schuckmann, Audrey Minière, Flora Gues, Francisco José Cuesta-Valero, Gottfried Kirchengast, Susheel Adusumilli, Fiammetta Straneo, Michaël Ablain, Richard P. Allan, Paul M. Barker, Hugo Beltrami, Alejandro Blazquez, Tim Boyer, Lijing Cheng, John Church, Damien Desbruyeres, Han Dolman, Catia M. Domingues, Almudena García-García, Donata Giglio, John E. Gilson, Maximilian Gorfer, Leopold Haimberger, Maria Z. Hakuba, Stefan Hendricks, Shigeki Hosoda, Gregory C. Johnson, Rachel Killick, Brian King, Nicolas Kolodziejczyk, Anton Korosov, Gerhard Krinner, Mikael Kuusela, Felix W. Landerer, Moritz Langer, Thomas Lavergne, Isobel Lawrence, Yuehua Li, John Lyman, Florence Marti, Ben Marzeion, Michael Mayer, Andrew H. MacDougall, Trevor McDougall, Didier Paolo Monselesan, Jan Nitzbon, Inès Otosaka, Jian Peng, Sarah Purkey, Dean Roemmich, Kanako Sato, Katsunari Sato, Abhishek Savita, Axel Schweiger, Andrew Shepherd, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Leon Simons, Donald A. Slater, Thomas Slater, Andrea K. Steiner, Toshio Suga, Tanguy Szekely, Wim Thiery, Mary-Louise Timmermans, Inne Vanderkelen, Susan E. Wjiffels, Tonghua Wu, and Michael Zemp
Earth Syst. Sci. Data, 15, 1675–1709,,, 2023
Short summary
WETMETH 1.0: a new wetland methane model for implementation in Earth system models
Claude-Michel Nzotungicimpaye, Kirsten Zickfeld, Andrew H. MacDougall, Joe R. Melton, Claire C. Treat, Michael Eby, and Lance F. W. Lesack
Geosci. Model Dev., 14, 6215–6240,,, 2021
Short summary

Related subject area

Earth System Science/Response to Global Change: Climate Change
Mapping the future afforestation distribution of China constrained by a national afforestation plan and climate change
Shuaifeng Song, Xuezhen Zhang, and Xiaodong Yan
Biogeosciences, 21, 2839–2858,,, 2024
Short summary
Southern Ocean phytoplankton under climate change: a shifting balance of bottom-up and top-down control
Tianfei Xue, Jens Terhaar, A. E. Friederike Prowe, Thomas L. Frölicher, Andreas Oschlies, and Ivy Frenger
Biogeosciences, 21, 2473–2491,,, 2024
Short summary
Coherency and time lag analyses between MODIS vegetation indices and climate across forests and grasslands in the European temperate zone
Kinga Kulesza and Agata Hościło
Biogeosciences, 21, 2509–2527,,, 2024
Short summary
Direct foliar phosphorus uptake from wildfire ash
Anton Lokshin, Daniel Palchan, and Avner Gross
Biogeosciences, 21, 2355–2365,,, 2024
Short summary
The effect of forest cover changes on the regional climate conditions in Europe during the period 1986–2015
Marcus Breil, Vanessa K. M. Schneider, and Joaquim G. Pinto
Biogeosciences, 21, 811–824,,, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Archer, D.: A data-driven model of the global calcite lysocline, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 10, 511–526, 1996.
Archer, D.: Fate of fossil fuel CO2 in geologic time, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C09S05,, 2005.
Avis, C. A.: Simulating the present-day and future distribution of permafrost in the UVic Earth system climate model, PhD. thesis, University of Victoria, 2012.
Avis, C. A., Weaver, A. J., and Meissner, K. J.: Reduction in areal extent of high–latitude wetlands in response to permafrost thaw, Nat. Geosci., 4, 444–448,, 2011.
Booth, B. B., Jones, C. D., Collins, M., Totterdell, I. J., Cox, P. M., Sitch, S., Huntingford, C., Betts, R. A., Harris, G. R., and Lloyd, J.: High sensitivity of future global warming to land carbon cycle processes, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 024002,, 2012.
Short summary
The soils of the permafrost region are estimated to hold 1100 to 1500 billion tonnes of carbon. As climate change progresses much of this permafrost is expected to thaw and the carbon within it decay. Here we conduct numerical experiments with a climate model to estimate with formal uncertainty bounds the release of carbon from permafrost soils. Our simulations suggest that the permafrost carbon will make a significant but not cataclysmic contribution to climate change over the next centuries.
Final-revised paper