Research article
14 Jul 2016
Research article
| 14 Jul 2016
Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem
Charlotte Laufkötter et al.
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Cited
71 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Factors controlling the community structure of picoplankton in contrasting marine environments J. Otero-Ferrer et al. 10.5194/bg-15-6199-2018
- Mechanisms and Pathways of Small-Phytoplankton Export from the Surface Ocean T. Richardson 10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063627
- The Subtropical Ocean's Biological Carbon Pump Determined From O 2 and DIC/DI 13 C Tracers B. Yang et al. 10.1029/2018GL081239
- Enhanced Winter Carbon Export Observed by BGC‐Argo in the Northwest Pacific Ocean X. Xing et al. 10.1029/2020GL089847
- Contrasting Upper and Deep Ocean Oxygen Response to Protracted Global Warming T. Frölicher et al. 10.1029/2020GB006601
- Reconciling the Size‐Dependence of Marine Particle Sinking Speed B. Cael et al. 10.1029/2020GL091771
- Slower nutrient stream suppresses Subarctic Atlantic Ocean biological productivity in global warming D. Whitt & M. Jansen 10.1073/pnas.2000851117
- Nonmonotonic Response of Primary Production and Export to Changes in Mixed‐Layer Depth in the Southern Ocean J. Llort et al. 10.1029/2018GL081788
- The relationship between primary production and export production in the ocean: Effects of time lags and temporal variability E. Laws & K. Maiti 10.1016/j.dsr.2019.05.006
- Does Export Production Measure Transient Changes of the Biological Carbon Pump's Feedback to the Atmosphere Under Global Warming? W. Koeve et al. 10.1029/2020GL089928
- The Fate of Carbon and Nutrients Exported Out of the Southern Ocean J. Hauck et al. 10.1029/2018GB005977
- An explicit estimate of the atmospheric nutrient impact on global oceanic productivity S. Myriokefalitakis et al. 10.5194/os-16-1183-2020
- Bridging the gaps between particulate backscattering measurements and modeled particulate organic carbon in the ocean M. Galí et al. 10.5194/bg-19-1245-2022
- Influence of diatom diversity on the ocean biological carbon pump P. Tréguer et al. 10.1038/s41561-017-0028-x
- Sensitivity of 21st Century Ocean Carbon Export Flux Projections to the Choice of Export Depth Horizon H. Palevsky & S. Doney 10.1029/2020GB006790
- What controls microzooplankton biomass and herbivory rate across marginal seas of China? K. Liu et al. 10.1002/lno.11588
- Changing Biogeochemistry of the Southern Ocean and Its Ecosystem Implications S. Henley et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.00581
- Phenology and time series trends of the dominant seasonal phytoplankton bloom across global scales K. Friedland et al. 10.1111/geb.12717
- Oceanic nitrogen cycling and N2O flux perturbations in the Anthropocene A. Landolfi et al. 10.1002/2017GB005633
- Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts D. Tommasi et al. 10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.011
- Emergence of anthropogenic signals in the ocean carbon cycle S. Schlunegger et al. 10.1038/s41558-019-0553-2
- Factors controlling coccolithophore biogeography in the Southern Ocean C. Nissen et al. 10.5194/bg-15-6997-2018
- Variable particle size distributions reduce the sensitivity of global export flux to climate change S. Leung et al. 10.5194/bg-18-229-2021
- Glacial Iron Sources Stimulate the Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle C. Laufkötter et al. 10.1029/2018GL079797
- Hierarchy of calibrated global models reveals improved distributions and fluxes of biogeochemical tracers in models with explicit representation of iron W. Yao et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4c52
- A Critical Examination of the Role of Marine Snow and Zooplankton Fecal Pellets in Removing Ocean Surface Microplastic K. Kvale et al. 10.3389/fmars.2019.00808
- Synergistic Exploitation of Hyper- and Multi-Spectral Precursor Sentinel Measurements to Determine Phytoplankton Functional Types (SynSenPFT) S. Losa et al. 10.3389/fmars.2017.00203
- Direct Observations of Biological Carbon Export From Profiling Floats in the Subtropical North Atlantic M. Estapa et al. 10.1029/2018GB006098
- Temporal variations in the abundance of picoplanktonic Synechococcus (Cyanobacteria) during a mucilage event in the Gulfs of Bandırma and Erdek B. Toklu-Alicli et al. 10.1016/j.ecss.2019.106513
- Trends in phytoplankton phenology in the Mediterranean Sea based on ocean-colour remote sensing P. Salgado-Hernanz et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2018.10.036
- Southern Ocean Phytoplankton Community Structure as a Gatekeeper for Global Nutrient Biogeochemistry C. Nissen et al. 10.1029/2021GB006991
- Simple Global Ocean Biogeochemistry With Light, Iron, Nutrients and Gas Version 2 (BLINGv2): Model Description and Simulation Characteristics in GFDL's CM4.0 J. Dunne et al. 10.1029/2019MS002008
- How Choice of Depth Horizon Influences the Estimated Spatial Patterns and Global Magnitude of Ocean Carbon Export Flux H. Palevsky & S. Doney 10.1029/2017GL076498
- Organic Carbon Export and Loss Rates in the Red Sea M. Kheireddine et al. 10.1029/2020GB006650
- Dynamic Biological Functioning Important for Simulating and Stabilizing Ocean Biogeochemistry P. Buchanan et al. 10.1002/2017GB005753
- Regional Pattern of the Ocean's Biological Pump Based on Geochemical Observations P. Quay et al. 10.1029/2020GL088098
- Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war K. Scherrer et al. 10.1073/pnas.2008256117
- Evolution of Future Black Sea Fish Stocks under Changing Environmental and Climatic Conditions B. Salihoglu et al. 10.3389/fmars.2017.00339
- Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends S. Schlunegger et al. 10.1029/2019GB006453
- Modeling the Impact of Macrozooplankton on Carbon Export Production in the Southern Ocean O. Karakuş et al. 10.1029/2021JC017315
- Multiobjective Calibration of a Global Biogeochemical Ocean Model Against Nutrients, Oxygen, and Oxygen Minimum Zones V. Sauerland et al. 10.1029/2018MS001510
- Sediment oxygen consumption: Role in the global marine carbon cycle B. Jørgensen et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103987
- Scaling Global Warming Impacts on Ocean Ecosystems: Lessons From a Suite of Earth System Models A. Bahl et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.00698
- Alternative Particle Formation Pathways in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific's Biological Carbon Pump E. Cavan et al. 10.1029/2018JG004392
- Modeling the Impact of Zooplankton Diel Vertical Migration on the Carbon Export Flux of the Biological Pump K. Archibald et al. 10.1029/2018GB005983
- Uncertainty in Ocean-Color Estimates of Chlorophyll for Phytoplankton Groups R. Brewin et al. 10.3389/fmars.2017.00104
- Coccolithophore Growth and Calcification in an Acidified Ocean: Insights From Community Earth System Model Simulations K. Krumhardt et al. 10.1029/2018MS001483
- Buffering of Ocean Export Production by Flexible Elemental Stoichiometry of Particulate Organic Matter T. Tanioka & K. Matsumoto 10.1002/2017GB005670
- The Sensitivity of Subsurface Microbes to Ocean Warming Accentuates Future Declines in Particulate Carbon Export E. Cavan et al. 10.3389/fevo.2018.00230
- Ideas and perspectives: climate-relevant marine biologically driven mechanisms in Earth system models I. Hense et al. 10.5194/bg-14-403-2017
- Phytoplankton Blooms at Increasing Levels of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Experimental Evidence for Negative Effects on Prymnesiophytes and Positive on Small Picoeukaryotes K. Schulz et al. 10.3389/fmars.2017.00064
- Brominated VSLS and their influence on ozone under a changing climate S. Falk et al. 10.5194/acp-17-11313-2017
- Eco-evolutionary responses of the microbial loop to surface ocean warming and consequences for primary production P. Cherabier & R. Ferrière 10.1038/s41396-021-01166-8
- Commercial fishery disturbance of the global ocean biological carbon sink E. Cavan & S. Hill 10.1111/gcb.16019
- The case of the diatoms and the muddled mandalas: Time to recognize diatom adaptations to stratified waters A. Kemp & T. Villareal 10.1016/j.pocean.2018.08.002
- Calibration of temperature-dependent ocean microbial processes in the cGENIE.muffin (v0.9.13) Earth system model K. Crichton et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-125-2021
- Spatial and Temporal Variations of Particulate Organic Carbon Sinking Flux in Global Ocean from 2003 to 2018 F. Xie et al. 10.3390/rs11242941
- The Impact of the Amazon on the Biological Pump and the Air‐Sea CO 2 Balance of the Western Tropical Atlantic D. Louchard et al. 10.1029/2020GB006818
- Net Community Production in the Southern Ocean: Insights From Comparing Atmospheric Potential Oxygen to Satellite Ocean Color Algorithms and Ocean Models C. Nevison et al. 10.1029/2018GL079575
- Major restructuring of marine plankton assemblages under global warming F. Benedetti et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-25385-x
- Globally Consistent Quantitative Observations of Planktonic Ecosystems F. Lombard et al. 10.3389/fmars.2019.00196
- Identifying global favourable habitat for early juvenile loggerhead sea turtles C. Harrison et al. 10.1098/rsif.2020.0799
- Factors controlling the competition between <i>Phaeocystis</i> and diatoms in the Southern Ocean and implications for carbon export fluxes C. Nissen & M. Vogt 10.5194/bg-18-251-2021
- The increased storage of suspended particulate matter in the upper water of the tropical Western Pacific during the 2015/2016 super El Niño event W. Gao et al. 10.1007/s00343-021-0362-0
- Evidence that Pacific tuna mercury levels are driven by marine methylmercury production and anthropogenic inputs A. Médieu et al. 10.1073/pnas.2113032119
- Interannual‐to‐Decadal Variations of Particulate Organic Carbon and the Contribution of Phytoplankton in the Tropical Pacific During 1981–2016: A Model Study J. Yu et al. 10.1029/2020JC016515
- Using Global-Scale Earth System Models for Regional Fisheries Applications K. Kearney et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.622206
- Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity J. Moore et al. 10.1126/science.aao6379
- Natural halogens buffer tropospheric ozone in a changing climate F. Iglesias-Suarez et al. 10.1038/s41558-019-0675-6
- Southern Ocean Phytoplankton Blooms Observed by Biogeochemical Floats T. Uchida et al. 10.1029/2019JC015355
- Large Pelagic Fish Are Most Sensitive to Climate Change Despite Pelagification of Ocean Food Webs C. Petrik et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.588482
69 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Factors controlling the community structure of picoplankton in contrasting marine environments J. Otero-Ferrer et al. 10.5194/bg-15-6199-2018
- Mechanisms and Pathways of Small-Phytoplankton Export from the Surface Ocean T. Richardson 10.1146/annurev-marine-121916-063627
- The Subtropical Ocean's Biological Carbon Pump Determined From O 2 and DIC/DI 13 C Tracers B. Yang et al. 10.1029/2018GL081239
- Enhanced Winter Carbon Export Observed by BGC‐Argo in the Northwest Pacific Ocean X. Xing et al. 10.1029/2020GL089847
- Contrasting Upper and Deep Ocean Oxygen Response to Protracted Global Warming T. Frölicher et al. 10.1029/2020GB006601
- Reconciling the Size‐Dependence of Marine Particle Sinking Speed B. Cael et al. 10.1029/2020GL091771
- Slower nutrient stream suppresses Subarctic Atlantic Ocean biological productivity in global warming D. Whitt & M. Jansen 10.1073/pnas.2000851117
- Nonmonotonic Response of Primary Production and Export to Changes in Mixed‐Layer Depth in the Southern Ocean J. Llort et al. 10.1029/2018GL081788
- The relationship between primary production and export production in the ocean: Effects of time lags and temporal variability E. Laws & K. Maiti 10.1016/j.dsr.2019.05.006
- Does Export Production Measure Transient Changes of the Biological Carbon Pump's Feedback to the Atmosphere Under Global Warming? W. Koeve et al. 10.1029/2020GL089928
- The Fate of Carbon and Nutrients Exported Out of the Southern Ocean J. Hauck et al. 10.1029/2018GB005977
- An explicit estimate of the atmospheric nutrient impact on global oceanic productivity S. Myriokefalitakis et al. 10.5194/os-16-1183-2020
- Bridging the gaps between particulate backscattering measurements and modeled particulate organic carbon in the ocean M. Galí et al. 10.5194/bg-19-1245-2022
- Influence of diatom diversity on the ocean biological carbon pump P. Tréguer et al. 10.1038/s41561-017-0028-x
- Sensitivity of 21st Century Ocean Carbon Export Flux Projections to the Choice of Export Depth Horizon H. Palevsky & S. Doney 10.1029/2020GB006790
- What controls microzooplankton biomass and herbivory rate across marginal seas of China? K. Liu et al. 10.1002/lno.11588
- Changing Biogeochemistry of the Southern Ocean and Its Ecosystem Implications S. Henley et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.00581
- Phenology and time series trends of the dominant seasonal phytoplankton bloom across global scales K. Friedland et al. 10.1111/geb.12717
- Oceanic nitrogen cycling and N2O flux perturbations in the Anthropocene A. Landolfi et al. 10.1002/2017GB005633
- Managing living marine resources in a dynamic environment: The role of seasonal to decadal climate forecasts D. Tommasi et al. 10.1016/j.pocean.2016.12.011
- Emergence of anthropogenic signals in the ocean carbon cycle S. Schlunegger et al. 10.1038/s41558-019-0553-2
- Factors controlling coccolithophore biogeography in the Southern Ocean C. Nissen et al. 10.5194/bg-15-6997-2018
- Variable particle size distributions reduce the sensitivity of global export flux to climate change S. Leung et al. 10.5194/bg-18-229-2021
- Glacial Iron Sources Stimulate the Southern Ocean Carbon Cycle C. Laufkötter et al. 10.1029/2018GL079797
- Hierarchy of calibrated global models reveals improved distributions and fluxes of biogeochemical tracers in models with explicit representation of iron W. Yao et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ab4c52
- A Critical Examination of the Role of Marine Snow and Zooplankton Fecal Pellets in Removing Ocean Surface Microplastic K. Kvale et al. 10.3389/fmars.2019.00808
- Synergistic Exploitation of Hyper- and Multi-Spectral Precursor Sentinel Measurements to Determine Phytoplankton Functional Types (SynSenPFT) S. Losa et al. 10.3389/fmars.2017.00203
- Direct Observations of Biological Carbon Export From Profiling Floats in the Subtropical North Atlantic M. Estapa et al. 10.1029/2018GB006098
- Temporal variations in the abundance of picoplanktonic Synechococcus (Cyanobacteria) during a mucilage event in the Gulfs of Bandırma and Erdek B. Toklu-Alicli et al. 10.1016/j.ecss.2019.106513
- Trends in phytoplankton phenology in the Mediterranean Sea based on ocean-colour remote sensing P. Salgado-Hernanz et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2018.10.036
- Southern Ocean Phytoplankton Community Structure as a Gatekeeper for Global Nutrient Biogeochemistry C. Nissen et al. 10.1029/2021GB006991
- Simple Global Ocean Biogeochemistry With Light, Iron, Nutrients and Gas Version 2 (BLINGv2): Model Description and Simulation Characteristics in GFDL's CM4.0 J. Dunne et al. 10.1029/2019MS002008
- How Choice of Depth Horizon Influences the Estimated Spatial Patterns and Global Magnitude of Ocean Carbon Export Flux H. Palevsky & S. Doney 10.1029/2017GL076498
- Organic Carbon Export and Loss Rates in the Red Sea M. Kheireddine et al. 10.1029/2020GB006650
- Dynamic Biological Functioning Important for Simulating and Stabilizing Ocean Biogeochemistry P. Buchanan et al. 10.1002/2017GB005753
- Regional Pattern of the Ocean's Biological Pump Based on Geochemical Observations P. Quay et al. 10.1029/2020GL088098
- Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war K. Scherrer et al. 10.1073/pnas.2008256117
- Evolution of Future Black Sea Fish Stocks under Changing Environmental and Climatic Conditions B. Salihoglu et al. 10.3389/fmars.2017.00339
- Time of Emergence and Large Ensemble Intercomparison for Ocean Biogeochemical Trends S. Schlunegger et al. 10.1029/2019GB006453
- Modeling the Impact of Macrozooplankton on Carbon Export Production in the Southern Ocean O. Karakuş et al. 10.1029/2021JC017315
- Multiobjective Calibration of a Global Biogeochemical Ocean Model Against Nutrients, Oxygen, and Oxygen Minimum Zones V. Sauerland et al. 10.1029/2018MS001510
- Sediment oxygen consumption: Role in the global marine carbon cycle B. Jørgensen et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.103987
- Scaling Global Warming Impacts on Ocean Ecosystems: Lessons From a Suite of Earth System Models A. Bahl et al. 10.3389/fmars.2020.00698
- Alternative Particle Formation Pathways in the Eastern Tropical North Pacific's Biological Carbon Pump E. Cavan et al. 10.1029/2018JG004392
- Modeling the Impact of Zooplankton Diel Vertical Migration on the Carbon Export Flux of the Biological Pump K. Archibald et al. 10.1029/2018GB005983
- Uncertainty in Ocean-Color Estimates of Chlorophyll for Phytoplankton Groups R. Brewin et al. 10.3389/fmars.2017.00104
- Coccolithophore Growth and Calcification in an Acidified Ocean: Insights From Community Earth System Model Simulations K. Krumhardt et al. 10.1029/2018MS001483
- Buffering of Ocean Export Production by Flexible Elemental Stoichiometry of Particulate Organic Matter T. Tanioka & K. Matsumoto 10.1002/2017GB005670
- The Sensitivity of Subsurface Microbes to Ocean Warming Accentuates Future Declines in Particulate Carbon Export E. Cavan et al. 10.3389/fevo.2018.00230
- Ideas and perspectives: climate-relevant marine biologically driven mechanisms in Earth system models I. Hense et al. 10.5194/bg-14-403-2017
- Phytoplankton Blooms at Increasing Levels of Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide: Experimental Evidence for Negative Effects on Prymnesiophytes and Positive on Small Picoeukaryotes K. Schulz et al. 10.3389/fmars.2017.00064
- Brominated VSLS and their influence on ozone under a changing climate S. Falk et al. 10.5194/acp-17-11313-2017
- Eco-evolutionary responses of the microbial loop to surface ocean warming and consequences for primary production P. Cherabier & R. Ferrière 10.1038/s41396-021-01166-8
- Commercial fishery disturbance of the global ocean biological carbon sink E. Cavan & S. Hill 10.1111/gcb.16019
- The case of the diatoms and the muddled mandalas: Time to recognize diatom adaptations to stratified waters A. Kemp & T. Villareal 10.1016/j.pocean.2018.08.002
- Calibration of temperature-dependent ocean microbial processes in the cGENIE.muffin (v0.9.13) Earth system model K. Crichton et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-125-2021
- Spatial and Temporal Variations of Particulate Organic Carbon Sinking Flux in Global Ocean from 2003 to 2018 F. Xie et al. 10.3390/rs11242941
- The Impact of the Amazon on the Biological Pump and the Air‐Sea CO 2 Balance of the Western Tropical Atlantic D. Louchard et al. 10.1029/2020GB006818
- Net Community Production in the Southern Ocean: Insights From Comparing Atmospheric Potential Oxygen to Satellite Ocean Color Algorithms and Ocean Models C. Nevison et al. 10.1029/2018GL079575
- Major restructuring of marine plankton assemblages under global warming F. Benedetti et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-25385-x
- Globally Consistent Quantitative Observations of Planktonic Ecosystems F. Lombard et al. 10.3389/fmars.2019.00196
- Identifying global favourable habitat for early juvenile loggerhead sea turtles C. Harrison et al. 10.1098/rsif.2020.0799
- Factors controlling the competition between <i>Phaeocystis</i> and diatoms in the Southern Ocean and implications for carbon export fluxes C. Nissen & M. Vogt 10.5194/bg-18-251-2021
- The increased storage of suspended particulate matter in the upper water of the tropical Western Pacific during the 2015/2016 super El Niño event W. Gao et al. 10.1007/s00343-021-0362-0
- Evidence that Pacific tuna mercury levels are driven by marine methylmercury production and anthropogenic inputs A. Médieu et al. 10.1073/pnas.2113032119
- Interannual‐to‐Decadal Variations of Particulate Organic Carbon and the Contribution of Phytoplankton in the Tropical Pacific During 1981–2016: A Model Study J. Yu et al. 10.1029/2020JC016515
- Using Global-Scale Earth System Models for Regional Fisheries Applications K. Kearney et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.622206
- Sustained climate warming drives declining marine biological productivity J. Moore et al. 10.1126/science.aao6379
- Natural halogens buffer tropospheric ozone in a changing climate F. Iglesias-Suarez et al. 10.1038/s41558-019-0675-6
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Discussed (final revised paper)
Latest update: 31 Jan 2023
Short summary
We compare future projections in marine export production, generated by four ecosystem models under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. While all models project decreases in export, they differ strongly regarding the drivers. The formation of sinking particles of organic matter is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. Changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for export in some models but of low significance in others.
We compare future projections in marine export production, generated by four ecosystem models...
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