Articles | Volume 13, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
14 Jul 2016
Research article |
| 14 Jul 2016
Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem
Charlotte Laufkötter
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA
Meike Vogt
Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Nicolas Gruber
Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
Olivier Aumont
Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans, Centre IRD de Bretagne, Plouzane, France
Laurent Bopp
Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA-UVSQ-CNRS, UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Scott C. Doney
Department of Marine Chemistry & Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
John P. Dunne
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Judith Hauck
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
Jasmin G. John
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
Ivan D. Lima
Department of Marine Chemistry & Geochemistry, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, USA
Roland Seferian
CNRM, Centre National de Recherches Météorologiques, Météo-France/CNRS, 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31057 Toulouse, France
Christoph Völker
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
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Short summary
We compare future projections in marine export production, generated by four ecosystem models under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. While all models project decreases in export, they differ strongly regarding the drivers. The formation of sinking particles of organic matter is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. Changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for export in some models but of low significance in others.
We compare future projections in marine export production, generated by four ecosystem models...
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