Articles | Volume 13, issue 13
Biogeosciences, 13, 4023–4047, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016
Biogeosciences, 13, 4023–4047, 2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016
Research article
14 Jul 2016
Research article | 14 Jul 2016

Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem

Charlotte Laufkötter et al.

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We compare future projections in marine export production, generated by four ecosystem models under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. While all models project decreases in export, they differ strongly regarding the drivers. The formation of sinking particles of organic matter is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. Changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for export in some models but of low significance in others.
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