Articles | Volume 13, issue 13
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-4023-2016
Research article
 | 
14 Jul 2016
Research article |  | 14 Jul 2016

Projected decreases in future marine export production: the role of the carbon flux through the upper ocean ecosystem

Charlotte Laufkötter, Meike Vogt, Nicolas Gruber, Olivier Aumont, Laurent Bopp, Scott C. Doney, John P. Dunne, Judith Hauck, Jasmin G. John, Ivan D. Lima, Roland Seferian, and Christoph Völker

Related authors

Modelling submerged biofouled microplastics and their vertical trajectories
Reint Fischer, Delphine Lobelle, Merel Kooi, Albert Koelmans, Victor Onink, Charlotte Laufkötter, Linda Amaral-Zettler, Andrew Yool, and Erik van Sebille
Biogeosciences, 19, 2211–2234, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2211-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-19-2211-2022, 2022
Short summary
Empirical Lagrangian parametrization for wind-driven mixing of buoyant particles at the ocean surface
Victor Onink, Erik van Sebille, and Charlotte Laufkötter
Geosci. Model Dev., 15, 1995–2012, https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1995-2022,https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-1995-2022, 2022
Short summary
Compound high-temperature and low-chlorophyll extremes in the ocean over the satellite period
Natacha Le Grix, Jakob Zscheischler, Charlotte Laufkötter, Cecile S. Rousseaux, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 18, 2119–2137, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2119-2021,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-2119-2021, 2021
Short summary
Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models
C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, N. Gruber, M. Aita-Noguchi, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, S. C. Doney, J. Dunne, T. Hashioka, J. Hauck, T. Hirata, J. John, C. Le Quéré, I. D. Lima, H. Nakano, R. Seferian, I. Totterdell, M. Vichi, and C. Völker
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015, 2015
Short summary
Long-term trends in ocean plankton production and particle export between 1960–2006
C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, and N. Gruber
Biogeosciences, 10, 7373–7393, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7373-2013,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-10-7373-2013, 2013

Related subject area

Biogeochemistry: Open Ocean
Phytoplankton community structure in relation to iron and macronutrient fluxes from subsurface waters in the western North Pacific during summer
Huailin Deng, Koji Suzuki, Ichiro Yasuda, Hiroshi Ogawa, and Jun Nishioka
Biogeosciences, 22, 1495–1508, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1495-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1495-2025, 2025
Short summary
Intense and localized export of selected marine snow types at eddy edges in the South Atlantic Ocean
Alexandre Accardo, Rémi Laxenaire, Alberto Baudena, Sabrina Speich, Rainer Kiko, and Lars Stemmann
Biogeosciences, 22, 1183–1201, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1183-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1183-2025, 2025
Short summary
Spatial distributions of iron and manganese in surface waters of the Arctic's Laptev and East Siberian seas
Naoya Kanna, Kazutaka Tateyama, Takuji Waseda, Anna Timofeeva, Maria Papadimitraki, Laura Whitmore, Hajime Obata, Daiki Nomura, Hiroshi Ogawa, Youhei Yamashita, and Igor Polyakov
Biogeosciences, 22, 1057–1076, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1057-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-1057-2025, 2025
Short summary
Climate-driven shifts in Southern Ocean primary producers and biogeochemistry in CMIP6 models
Ben J. Fisher, Alex J. Poulton, Michael P. Meredith, Kimberlee Baldry, Oscar Schofield, and Sian F. Henley
Biogeosciences, 22, 975–994, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-975-2025,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-975-2025, 2025
Short summary
Ocean acidification trends and carbonate system dynamics across the North Atlantic subpolar gyre water masses during 2009–2019
David Curbelo-Hernández, Fiz F. Pérez, Melchor González-Dávila, Sergey V. Gladyshev, Aridane G. González, David González-Santana, Antón Velo, Alexey Sokov, and J. Magdalena Santana-Casiano
Biogeosciences, 21, 5561–5589, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5561-2024,https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-5561-2024, 2024
Short summary

Cited articles

Alldredge, A. L. and Jackson, G. A.: Aggregation in Marine Systems, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 42, 1–7, 1995.
Allen, J. I., Aiken, J., Anderson, T. R., Buitenhuis, E., Cornell, S., Geider, R. J., Haines, K., Hirata, T., Holt, J., and Le Quéré, C.: Marine ecosystem models for earth systems applications: The MarQUEST experience, J. Marine Syst., 81, 19–33, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2009.12.017, 2010.
Armstrong, R., Lee, C., Hedges, J., Honjo, S., and Wakeham, S.: A new, mechanistic model for organic carbon fluxes in the ocean based on the quantitative association of POC with ballast minerals, Deep-Sea Res. Pt. II, 49, 219–236, https://doi.org/10.1016/S0967-0645(01)00101-1, 2002.
Aumont, O. and Bopp, L.: Globalizing results from ocean in situ iron fertilization studies, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GB002591, 2006.
Behrenfeld, M. J. and Falkowski, P. G.: Photosynthetic rates derived from satellite-based chlorophyll concentration, Limnol. Oceanogr., 42, 1–20, 1997.
Download
Short summary
We compare future projections in marine export production, generated by four ecosystem models under IPCC's high-emission scenario RCP8.5. While all models project decreases in export, they differ strongly regarding the drivers. The formation of sinking particles of organic matter is the most uncertain process with models not agreeing on either magnitude or the direction of change. Changes in diatom concentration are a strong driver for export in some models but of low significance in others.
Share
Altmetrics
Final-revised paper
Preprint