Biogeosciences
Biogeosciences
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Articles | Volume 13, issue 22
Articles | Volume 13, issue 22
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-6229-2016
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 13, issue 22
Research article
 | 
18 Nov 2016
Research article |  | 18 Nov 2016

Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw

Henk-Jan van der Kolk, Monique M. P. D. Heijmans, Jacobus van Huissteden, Jeroen W. M. Pullens, and Frank Berendse

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Short summary
Changes in tundra vegetation structure may amplify Arctic climate warming. Our simulations with a new tundra vegetation model suggest that precipitation increases favour grass abundance, whereas warming favours shrub dominance. However, abrupt permafrost thaw initiating wetland formation leads to grass dominance. Our simulations show that a wetter tundra, due to increased precipitation or abrupt permafrost thaw, could result in local shrub decline instead of the widely expected shrub expansion.
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