Articles | Volume 13, issue 22
Biogeosciences, 13, 6229–6245, 2016
Biogeosciences, 13, 6229–6245, 2016
Research article
18 Nov 2016
Research article | 18 Nov 2016

Potential Arctic tundra vegetation shifts in response to changing temperature, precipitation and permafrost thaw

Henk-Jan van der Kolk et al.

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Cited articles

Anisimov, O. A. and Nelson, F. E.: Permafrost zonationa and climate change in the northern hemisphere: results from transient general circulation models, Climatic Change, 35, 241–258, 1997.
Berendse, F.: Litter decomposition – a neglected component of plant fitness, J. Ecol., 82, 187–190, 1994a.
Berendse, F.: Competition between plant populations at low and high nutrient supplies, Oikos, 71, 253–260, 1994b.
Bintanja, R. and Selten, F. M.: Future increases in Arctic precipitation linked to local evaporation and sea-ice retreat, Nature, 509, 479–482, 2014.
Björk, R. G., Majdi, H., Klemedtsson, L., Lewis-Jonsson, L., and Molau, U.: Long-term warming effects on root morphology, root mass distribution, and microbial activity in two dry tundra plant communities in northern Sweden, New Phytol., 176, 862–873, 2007.
Short summary
Changes in tundra vegetation structure may amplify Arctic climate warming. Our simulations with a new tundra vegetation model suggest that precipitation increases favour grass abundance, whereas warming favours shrub dominance. However, abrupt permafrost thaw initiating wetland formation leads to grass dominance. Our simulations show that a wetter tundra, due to increased precipitation or abrupt permafrost thaw, could result in local shrub decline instead of the widely expected shrub expansion.
Final-revised paper