Articles | Volume 14, issue 12
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017

Special issue: Changing Permafrost in the Arctic and its Global Effects in...

Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017

Research article 22 Jun 2017

Research article | 22 Jun 2017

Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks

Eleanor J. Burke et al.

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Short summary
There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
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