Articles | Volume 14, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks
Eleanor J. Burke
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Altug Ekici
University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
Uni Research Climate and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Ye Huang
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR1572 – CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France
Sarah E. Chadburn
University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
University of Leeds, School of Earth and Environment, Leeds, LS2 9JT, UK
Chris Huntingford
Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford, Oxfordshire, OX10 8BB, UK
Philippe Ciais
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR1572 – CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France
Pierre Friedlingstein
University of Exeter, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences, Exeter, EX4 4QF, UK
Shushi Peng
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR1572 – CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, 91191 Gif sur Yvette, France
Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University, Beijing, 100871, China
Gerhard Krinner
Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l'Environnement, 54 rue Molière, 38402 Saint Martin d'Hères, France
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Cited
60 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impacts of Permafrost Degradation on Carbon Stocks and Emissions under a Warming Climate: A Review H. Jin & Q. Ma 10.3390/atmos12111425
- Modeled Microbial Dynamics Explain the Apparent Temperature Sensitivity of Wetland Methane Emissions S. Chadburn et al. 10.1029/2020GB006678
- ORCHIDEE-MICT (v8.4.1), a land surface model for the high latitudes: model description and validation M. Guimberteau et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018
- Explicitly modelling microtopography in permafrost landscapes in a land surface model (JULES vn5.4_microtopography) N. Smith et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022
- Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models R. Varney et al. 10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022
- Comparing assumptions and applications of dynamic vegetation models used in the Arctic-Boreal zone of Alaska and Canada E. Heffernan et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6619
- Dominance of particulate organic carbon in top mineral soils in cold regions P. García-Palacios et al. 10.1038/s41561-023-01354-5
- Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets J. Rogelj et al. 10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z
- Divergent patterns of experimental and model-derived permafrost ecosystem carbon dynamics in response to Arctic warming C. Schädel et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aae0ff
- Diverging responses of high-latitude CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in idealized climate change scenarios P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021
- Impacts of land surface darkening on frozen ground and ecosystems over the Tibetan Plateau S. Tang et al. 10.1007/s11430-023-1363-3
- Standardized monitoring of permafrost thaw: a user-friendly, multiparameter protocol J. Boike et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0007
- Antarctic permafrost degassing in Taylor Valley by extensive soil gas investigation L. Ruggiero et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161345
- Ecological Response to Permafrost Thaw and Consequences for Local and Global Ecosystem Services E. Schuur & M. Mack 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032349
- Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.5194/esd-14-55-2023
- Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks E. Comyn-Platt et al. 10.1038/s41561-018-0174-9
- Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements D. Yumashev et al. 10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x
- Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points D. Armstrong McKay et al. 10.1126/science.abn7950
- Digital Sustainability and Entrepreneurship: How Digital Innovations Are Helping Tackle Climate Change and Sustainable Development G. George et al. 10.1177/1042258719899425
- Seasonal dynamics of Arctic soils: Capturing year-round processes in measurements and soil biogeochemical models Z. Lyu et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104820
- Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433
- Effect of methane mitigation on global temperature under a permafrost feedback H. Bäck et al. 10.1016/j.gecadv.2024.100005
- The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response J. Lowe & D. Bernie 10.1098/rsta.2017.0263
- CO 2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C E. Burke et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138
- Divergent changes in particulate and mineral-associated organic carbon upon permafrost thaw F. Liu et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-32681-7
- Thawing Permafrost as a Nitrogen Fertiliser: Implications for Climate Feedbacks E. Burke et al. 10.3390/nitrogen3020023
- Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
- Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options G. Hayman et al. 10.5194/esd-12-513-2021
- Ecosystem carbon response of an Arctic peatland to simulated permafrost thaw C. Voigt et al. 10.1111/gcb.14574
- Spatio-temporal variations and uncertainty in land surface modelling for high latitudes: univariate response analysis D. Leibovici et al. 10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020
- Pathway-dependent fate of permafrost region carbon T. Kleinen & V. Brovkin 10.1088/1748-9326/aad824
- A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal J. Rogelj et al. 10.1038/s41586-019-1541-4
- Estimation of Permafrost SOC Stock and Turnover Time Using a Land Surface Model With Vertical Heterogeneity of Permafrost Soils S. Shu et al. 10.1029/2020GB006585
- Data-driven spatiotemporal projections of shallow permafrost based on CMIP6 across the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau at 1 km2 scale G. Yin et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.08.009
- Simulating Increased Permafrost Peatland Plant Productivity in Response to Belowground Fertilisation Using the JULES Land Surface Model R. Vitali et al. 10.3390/nitrogen3020018
- SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise M. Martínez Montero et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022
- Revisiting permafrost carbon feedback and economic impacts Y. Zhu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2b2b
- Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs – adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system P. Zelazowski et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-541-2018
- Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence B. Gay et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad0607
- Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes J. Zha & Q. Zhuang 10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021
- A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf D. Woodard et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
- Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming R. Varney et al. 10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023
- Importance of climate uncertainty for projections of forest ecosystem services R. Snell et al. 10.1007/s10113-018-1337-3
- A framework for assessing the economic impacts of Arctic change J. Alvarez et al. 10.1007/s13280-019-01211-z
- 青藏高原地表变暗对区域冻土与生态系统的影响 舒. 汤 et al. 10.1360/SSTe-2023-0307
- Global Simulation and Evaluation of Soil Organic Matter and Microbial Carbon and Nitrogen Stocks Using the Microbial Decomposition Model ORCHIMIC v2.0 Y. Huang et al. 10.1029/2020GB006836
- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
- National School Feeding Program (PNAE): A Public Policy That Promotes a Learning Framework and a More Sustainable Food System in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil E. Silva et al. 10.3390/foods12193622
- Dramatic Carbon Loss in a Permafrost Thaw Slump in the Tibetan Plateau is Dominated by the Loss of Microbial Necromass Carbon W. Zhou et al. 10.1021/acs.est.2c07274
- A new approach to simulate peat accumulation, degradation and stability in a global land surface scheme (JULES vn5.8_accumulate_soil) for northern and temperate peatlands S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022
- Permafrost Degradation Diminishes Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration Capacity on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau L. Liu et al. 10.1029/2021GB007068
- Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change E. Burke et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
- Increasing Organic Carbon Biolability With Depth in Yedoma Permafrost: Ramifications for Future Climate Change J. Heslop et al. 10.1029/2018JG004712
- Upland Yedoma taliks are an unpredicted source of atmospheric methane K. Walter Anthony et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-50346-5
- Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release T. Gasser et al. 10.1038/s41561-018-0227-0
- Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change A. McGuire et al. 10.1073/pnas.1719903115
- ORCHIMIC (v1.0), a microbe-mediated model for soil organic matter decomposition Y. Huang et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-2111-2018
- Avoiding dangerous climate: results from the AVOID2 programme J. Lowe et al. 10.1002/wea.3176
- Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios P. de Vrese & V. Brovkin 10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5
- 21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes K. Walter Anthony et al. 10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9
60 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Impacts of Permafrost Degradation on Carbon Stocks and Emissions under a Warming Climate: A Review H. Jin & Q. Ma 10.3390/atmos12111425
- Modeled Microbial Dynamics Explain the Apparent Temperature Sensitivity of Wetland Methane Emissions S. Chadburn et al. 10.1029/2020GB006678
- ORCHIDEE-MICT (v8.4.1), a land surface model for the high latitudes: model description and validation M. Guimberteau et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018
- Explicitly modelling microtopography in permafrost landscapes in a land surface model (JULES vn5.4_microtopography) N. Smith et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-3603-2022
- Evaluation of soil carbon simulation in CMIP6 Earth system models R. Varney et al. 10.5194/bg-19-4671-2022
- Comparing assumptions and applications of dynamic vegetation models used in the Arctic-Boreal zone of Alaska and Canada E. Heffernan et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad6619
- Dominance of particulate organic carbon in top mineral soils in cold regions P. García-Palacios et al. 10.1038/s41561-023-01354-5
- Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets J. Rogelj et al. 10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z
- Divergent patterns of experimental and model-derived permafrost ecosystem carbon dynamics in response to Arctic warming C. Schädel et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aae0ff
- Diverging responses of high-latitude CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in idealized climate change scenarios P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021
- Impacts of land surface darkening on frozen ground and ecosystems over the Tibetan Plateau S. Tang et al. 10.1007/s11430-023-1363-3
- Standardized monitoring of permafrost thaw: a user-friendly, multiparameter protocol J. Boike et al. 10.1139/as-2021-0007
- Antarctic permafrost degassing in Taylor Valley by extensive soil gas investigation L. Ruggiero et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.161345
- Ecological Response to Permafrost Thaw and Consequences for Local and Global Ecosystem Services E. Schuur & M. Mack 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032349
- Northern-high-latitude permafrost and terrestrial carbon response to two solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.5194/esd-14-55-2023
- Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks E. Comyn-Platt et al. 10.1038/s41561-018-0174-9
- Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements D. Yumashev et al. 10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x
- Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points D. Armstrong McKay et al. 10.1126/science.abn7950
- Digital Sustainability and Entrepreneurship: How Digital Innovations Are Helping Tackle Climate Change and Sustainable Development G. George et al. 10.1177/1042258719899425
- Seasonal dynamics of Arctic soils: Capturing year-round processes in measurements and soil biogeochemical models Z. Lyu et al. 10.1016/j.earscirev.2024.104820
- Simulated responses and feedbacks of permafrost carbon under future emissions pathways and idealized solar geoengineering scenarios Y. Chen et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2433
- Effect of methane mitigation on global temperature under a permafrost feedback H. Bäck et al. 10.1016/j.gecadv.2024.100005
- The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response J. Lowe & D. Bernie 10.1098/rsta.2017.0263
- CO 2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C E. Burke et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138
- Divergent changes in particulate and mineral-associated organic carbon upon permafrost thaw F. Liu et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-32681-7
- Thawing Permafrost as a Nitrogen Fertiliser: Implications for Climate Feedbacks E. Burke et al. 10.3390/nitrogen3020023
- Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
- Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options G. Hayman et al. 10.5194/esd-12-513-2021
- Ecosystem carbon response of an Arctic peatland to simulated permafrost thaw C. Voigt et al. 10.1111/gcb.14574
- Spatio-temporal variations and uncertainty in land surface modelling for high latitudes: univariate response analysis D. Leibovici et al. 10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020
- Pathway-dependent fate of permafrost region carbon T. Kleinen & V. Brovkin 10.1088/1748-9326/aad824
- A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal J. Rogelj et al. 10.1038/s41586-019-1541-4
- Estimation of Permafrost SOC Stock and Turnover Time Using a Land Surface Model With Vertical Heterogeneity of Permafrost Soils S. Shu et al. 10.1029/2020GB006585
- Data-driven spatiotemporal projections of shallow permafrost based on CMIP6 across the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau at 1 km2 scale G. Yin et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.08.009
- Simulating Increased Permafrost Peatland Plant Productivity in Response to Belowground Fertilisation Using the JULES Land Surface Model R. Vitali et al. 10.3390/nitrogen3020018
- SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise M. Martínez Montero et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-8059-2022
- Revisiting permafrost carbon feedback and economic impacts Y. Zhu et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad2b2b
- Climate pattern-scaling set for an ensemble of 22 GCMs – adding uncertainty to the IMOGEN version 2.0 impact system P. Zelazowski et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-541-2018
- Investigating permafrost carbon dynamics in Alaska with artificial intelligence B. Gay et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad0607
- Quantifying the role of moss in terrestrial ecosystem carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes J. Zha & Q. Zhuang 10.5194/bg-18-6245-2021
- A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf D. Woodard et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
- Simulated responses of soil carbon to climate change in CMIP6 Earth system models: the role of false priming R. Varney et al. 10.5194/bg-20-3767-2023
- Importance of climate uncertainty for projections of forest ecosystem services R. Snell et al. 10.1007/s10113-018-1337-3
- A framework for assessing the economic impacts of Arctic change J. Alvarez et al. 10.1007/s13280-019-01211-z
- 青藏高原地表变暗对区域冻土与生态系统的影响 舒. 汤 et al. 10.1360/SSTe-2023-0307
- Global Simulation and Evaluation of Soil Organic Matter and Microbial Carbon and Nitrogen Stocks Using the Microbial Decomposition Model ORCHIMIC v2.0 Y. Huang et al. 10.1029/2020GB006836
- No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point J. Nitzbon et al. 10.1038/s41558-024-02011-4
- National School Feeding Program (PNAE): A Public Policy That Promotes a Learning Framework and a More Sustainable Food System in Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil E. Silva et al. 10.3390/foods12193622
- Dramatic Carbon Loss in a Permafrost Thaw Slump in the Tibetan Plateau is Dominated by the Loss of Microbial Necromass Carbon W. Zhou et al. 10.1021/acs.est.2c07274
- A new approach to simulate peat accumulation, degradation and stability in a global land surface scheme (JULES vn5.8_accumulate_soil) for northern and temperate peatlands S. Chadburn et al. 10.5194/gmd-15-1633-2022
- Permafrost Degradation Diminishes Terrestrial Ecosystem Carbon Sequestration Capacity on the Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau L. Liu et al. 10.1029/2021GB007068
- Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change E. Burke et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
- Increasing Organic Carbon Biolability With Depth in Yedoma Permafrost: Ramifications for Future Climate Change J. Heslop et al. 10.1029/2018JG004712
- Upland Yedoma taliks are an unpredicted source of atmospheric methane K. Walter Anthony et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-50346-5
- Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release T. Gasser et al. 10.1038/s41561-018-0227-0
- Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change A. McGuire et al. 10.1073/pnas.1719903115
- ORCHIMIC (v1.0), a microbe-mediated model for soil organic matter decomposition Y. Huang et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-2111-2018
- Avoiding dangerous climate: results from the AVOID2 programme J. Lowe et al. 10.1002/wea.3176
- Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios P. de Vrese & V. Brovkin 10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5
- 21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes K. Walter Anthony et al. 10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9
Latest update: 31 Oct 2024
Short summary
There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the...
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