Articles | Volume 14, issue 12
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue: Changing Permafrost in the Arctic and its Global Effects in...
Biogeosciences, 14, 3051–3066, 2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article 22 Jun 2017
Research article | 22 Jun 2017
Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks
Eleanor J. Burke et al.
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Cited
32 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modeled Microbial Dynamics Explain the Apparent Temperature Sensitivity of Wetland Methane Emissions S. Chadburn et al. 10.1029/2020GB006678
- ORCHIDEE-MICT (v8.4.1), a land surface model for the high latitudes: model description and validation M. Guimberteau et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018
- A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf D. Woodard et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
- Importance of climate uncertainty for projections of forest ecosystem services R. Snell et al. 10.1007/s10113-018-1337-3
- Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets J. Rogelj et al. 10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z
- Divergent patterns of experimental and model-derived permafrost ecosystem carbon dynamics in response to Arctic warming C. Schädel et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aae0ff
- A framework for assessing the economic impacts of Arctic change J. Alvarez et al. 10.1007/s13280-019-01211-z
- Diverging responses of high-latitude CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in idealized climate change scenarios P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021
- Global Simulation and Evaluation of Soil Organic Matter and Microbial Carbon and Nitrogen Stocks Using the Microbial Decomposition Model ORCHIMIC v2.0 Y. Huang et al. 10.1029/2020GB006836
- Ecological Response to Permafrost Thaw and Consequences for Local and Global Ecosystem Services E. Schuur & M. Mack 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032349
- Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks E. Comyn-Platt et al. 10.1038/s41561-018-0174-9
- Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements D. Yumashev et al. 10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x
- Digital Sustainability and Entrepreneurship: How Digital Innovations Are Helping Tackle Climate Change and Sustainable Development G. George et al. 10.1177/1042258719899425
- The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response J. Lowe & D. Bernie 10.1098/rsta.2017.0263
- CO 2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C E. Burke et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138
- Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change E. Burke et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
- Increasing Organic Carbon Biolability With Depth in Yedoma Permafrost: Ramifications for Future Climate Change J. Heslop et al. 10.1029/2018JG004712
- Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release T. Gasser et al. 10.1038/s41561-018-0227-0
- Plant carbon allocation drives turnover of old soil organic matter in permafrost tundra soils L. Street et al. 10.1111/gcb.15134
- Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change A. McGuire et al. 10.1073/pnas.1719903115
- ORCHIMIC (v1.0), a microbe-mediated model for soil organic matter decomposition Y. Huang et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-2111-2018
- Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
- Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options G. Hayman et al. 10.5194/esd-12-513-2021
- Avoiding dangerous climate: results from the AVOID2 programme J. Lowe et al. 10.1002/wea.3176
- Ecosystem carbon response of an Arctic peatland to simulated permafrost thaw C. Voigt et al. 10.1111/gcb.14574
- Spatio-temporal variations and uncertainty in land surface modelling for high latitudes: univariate response analysis D. Leibovici et al. 10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020
- Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios P. de Vrese & V. Brovkin 10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5
- Pathway-dependent fate of permafrost region carbon T. Kleinen & V. Brovkin 10.1088/1748-9326/aad824
- A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal J. Rogelj et al. 10.1038/s41586-019-1541-4
- Estimation of Permafrost SOC Stock and Turnover Time Using a Land Surface Model With Vertical Heterogeneity of Permafrost Soils S. Shu et al. 10.1029/2020GB006585
- 21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes K. Walter Anthony et al. 10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9
- Data-driven spatiotemporal projections of shallow permafrost based on CMIP6 across the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau at 1 km2 scale G. Yin et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.08.009
32 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Modeled Microbial Dynamics Explain the Apparent Temperature Sensitivity of Wetland Methane Emissions S. Chadburn et al. 10.1029/2020GB006678
- ORCHIDEE-MICT (v8.4.1), a land surface model for the high latitudes: model description and validation M. Guimberteau et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-121-2018
- A permafrost implementation in the simple carbon–climate model Hector v.2.3pf D. Woodard et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-4751-2021
- Importance of climate uncertainty for projections of forest ecosystem services R. Snell et al. 10.1007/s10113-018-1337-3
- Estimating and tracking the remaining carbon budget for stringent climate targets J. Rogelj et al. 10.1038/s41586-019-1368-z
- Divergent patterns of experimental and model-derived permafrost ecosystem carbon dynamics in response to Arctic warming C. Schädel et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aae0ff
- A framework for assessing the economic impacts of Arctic change J. Alvarez et al. 10.1007/s13280-019-01211-z
- Diverging responses of high-latitude CO<sub>2</sub> and CH<sub>4</sub> emissions in idealized climate change scenarios P. de Vrese et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1097-2021
- Global Simulation and Evaluation of Soil Organic Matter and Microbial Carbon and Nitrogen Stocks Using the Microbial Decomposition Model ORCHIMIC v2.0 Y. Huang et al. 10.1029/2020GB006836
- Ecological Response to Permafrost Thaw and Consequences for Local and Global Ecosystem Services E. Schuur & M. Mack 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-121415-032349
- Carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C targets lowered by natural wetland and permafrost feedbacks E. Comyn-Platt et al. 10.1038/s41561-018-0174-9
- Climate policy implications of nonlinear decline of Arctic land permafrost and other cryosphere elements D. Yumashev et al. 10.1038/s41467-019-09863-x
- Digital Sustainability and Entrepreneurship: How Digital Innovations Are Helping Tackle Climate Change and Sustainable Development G. George et al. 10.1177/1042258719899425
- The impact of Earth system feedbacks on carbon budgets and climate response J. Lowe & D. Bernie 10.1098/rsta.2017.0263
- CO 2 loss by permafrost thawing implies additional emissions reductions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 °C E. Burke et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/aaa138
- Evaluating permafrost physics in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) models and their sensitivity to climate change E. Burke et al. 10.5194/tc-14-3155-2020
- Increasing Organic Carbon Biolability With Depth in Yedoma Permafrost: Ramifications for Future Climate Change J. Heslop et al. 10.1029/2018JG004712
- Path-dependent reductions in CO2 emission budgets caused by permafrost carbon release T. Gasser et al. 10.1038/s41561-018-0227-0
- Plant carbon allocation drives turnover of old soil organic matter in permafrost tundra soils L. Street et al. 10.1111/gcb.15134
- Dependence of the evolution of carbon dynamics in the northern permafrost region on the trajectory of climate change A. McGuire et al. 10.1073/pnas.1719903115
- ORCHIMIC (v1.0), a microbe-mediated model for soil organic matter decomposition Y. Huang et al. 10.5194/gmd-11-2111-2018
- Effects of multi-scale heterogeneity on the simulated evolution of ice-rich permafrost lowlands under a warming climate J. Nitzbon et al. 10.5194/tc-15-1399-2021
- Regional variation in the effectiveness of methane-based and land-based climate mitigation options G. Hayman et al. 10.5194/esd-12-513-2021
- Avoiding dangerous climate: results from the AVOID2 programme J. Lowe et al. 10.1002/wea.3176
- Ecosystem carbon response of an Arctic peatland to simulated permafrost thaw C. Voigt et al. 10.1111/gcb.14574
- Spatio-temporal variations and uncertainty in land surface modelling for high latitudes: univariate response analysis D. Leibovici et al. 10.5194/bg-17-1821-2020
- Timescales of the permafrost carbon cycle and legacy effects of temperature overshoot scenarios P. de Vrese & V. Brovkin 10.1038/s41467-021-23010-5
- Pathway-dependent fate of permafrost region carbon T. Kleinen & V. Brovkin 10.1088/1748-9326/aad824
- A new scenario logic for the Paris Agreement long-term temperature goal J. Rogelj et al. 10.1038/s41586-019-1541-4
- Estimation of Permafrost SOC Stock and Turnover Time Using a Land Surface Model With Vertical Heterogeneity of Permafrost Soils S. Shu et al. 10.1029/2020GB006585
- 21st-century modeled permafrost carbon emissions accelerated by abrupt thaw beneath lakes K. Walter Anthony et al. 10.1038/s41467-018-05738-9
- Data-driven spatiotemporal projections of shallow permafrost based on CMIP6 across the Qinghai‒Tibet Plateau at 1 km2 scale G. Yin et al. 10.1016/j.accre.2021.08.009
Latest update: 24 Oct 2021
Short summary
There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the...
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