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Articles | Volume 14, issue 12
Articles | Volume 14, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Articles | Volume 14, issue 12
Research article
 | 
22 Jun 2017
Research article |  | 22 Jun 2017

Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks

Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner

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Short summary
There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
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