Articles | Volume 14, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-3051-2017
Research article
 | 
22 Jun 2017
Research article |  | 22 Jun 2017

Quantifying uncertainties of permafrost carbon–climate feedbacks

Eleanor J. Burke, Altug Ekici, Ye Huang, Sarah E. Chadburn, Chris Huntingford, Philippe Ciais, Pierre Friedlingstein, Shushi Peng, and Gerhard Krinner

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Cited articles

Andrews, T., Gregory, J. M., Webb, M. J., and Taylor, K. E.: Forcing, feedbacks and climate sensitivity in CMIP5 coupled atmosphere-ocean climate models, Geophys. Res. Lett., 39, L09712, https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL051607, 2012.
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Brown, J., Ferrians Jr., O. J., Heginbottom, J. A., and Melnikov, E. S.: Circum-arctic map of permafrost and ground ice conditions, Digital media, National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO (revised February 2001), 1998.
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Short summary
There are large reserves of carbon within the permafrost which might be released to the atmosphere under global warming. Our models suggest this release may cause an additional global temperature increase of 0.005 to 0.2°C by the year 2100 and 0.01 to 0.34°C by the year 2300. Under climate mitigation scenarios this is between 1.5 and 9 % (by 2100) and between 6 and 16 % (by 2300) of the global mean temperature change. There is a large uncertainty associated with these results.
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