Articles | Volume 14, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4023-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4023-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
15 Sep 2017
Research article |
| 15 Sep 2017
Modelling past, present and future peatland carbon accumulation across the pan-Arctic region
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University,
Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Paul A. Miller
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University,
Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
Benjamin Smith
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University,
Sölvegatan 12, 223 62 Lund, Sweden
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Cited
40 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Accelerated vegetation succession but no hydrological change in a boreal fen during 20 years of recent climate change T. Kolari et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7592
- Spatial models with covariates improve estimates of peat depth in blanket peatlands D. Young et al. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0202691
- Recent Sphagnum expansion into the tundra on the North Slope of Alaska A. Stansfield et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.70042
- Long-term monitoring of active layer thickness confirms global permafrost degradation D. Streletskiy et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03824-1
- Modelling northern peatland area and carbon dynamics since the Holocene with the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model (SVN r5488) C. Qiu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019
- Modelling past and future peatland carbon dynamics across the pan‐Arctic N. Chaudhary et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15099
- Methane Emissions Offset Net Carbon Dioxide Uptake From an Alpine Peatland on the Eastern Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau H. Peng et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034671
- A Study of Dominant Vegetation Phenology in a Sphagnum Mountain Peatland Using In Situ and Sentinel‐2 Observations R. Garisoain et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JG007403
- Long-term Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program observations in Northern Alaskan tundra K. Nyland et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2021.1988000
- Modeling Carbon Accumulation and Permafrost Dynamics of Northern Peatlands Since the Holocene B. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG007009
- Biotic and Abiotic Drivers of Peatland Growth and Microtopography: A Model Demonstration N. Chaudhary et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-017-0213-1
- A Model Intercomparison Analysis for Controls on C Accumulation in North American Peatlands B. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006762
- Increasing contribution of peatlands to boreal evapotranspiration in a warming climate M. Helbig et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0763-7
- Recent peat and carbon accumulation following the Little Ice Age in northwestern Québec, Canada S. Piilo et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab11ec
- Winter Accumulation of Methane and its Variable Timing of Release from Thermokarst Lakes in Subarctic Peatlands A. Matveev et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005078
- Improving of operating efficiency of fire brigades during the suppression of peat fires by introducing a unit for bioactivating drinking water into a water supply concept (an example of Tver region) Y. Bogdanova et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/492/1/012022
- Peatlands and their carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes from 1990 to 2300: a process-based biogeochemistry model analysis B. Zhao & Q. Zhuang https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-251-2023
- The role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle for the 21st century C. Qiu et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13081
- The Canadian model for peatlands (CaMP): A peatland carbon model for national greenhouse gas reporting K. Bona et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109164
- Sphagnum and herbaceous net ecosystem exchanges in a Pyrenean peatland: a long-term study using the ISBA model R. Garisoain et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-3407-2026
- Decreased carbon accumulation feedback driven by climate‐induced drying of two southern boreal bogs over recent centuries H. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15005
- A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands C. Qiu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008
- Variable effects of climate change on carbon balance in northern ecosystems A. Matveev https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/226/1/012023
- Contemporary, modern and ancient carbon fluxes in the Zoige peatlands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau L. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2019.06.008
- Matrix‐Based Sensitivity Assessment of Soil Organic Carbon Storage: A Case Study from the ORCHIDEE‐MICT Model Y. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001237
- Inconsistent Response of Arctic Permafrost Peatland Carbon Accumulation to Warm Climate Phases H. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB005980
- Deeper snow increases the net soil organic carbon accrual rate in moist acidic tussock tundra:210Pb evidence from Arctic Alaska K. DeFranco et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2020.1802864
- Modeling Pan‐Arctic Peatland Carbon Dynamics Under Alternative Warming Scenarios N. Chaudhary et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095276
- ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales C. Qiu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018
- Linking soil organic carbon mineralization with soil microbial and substrate properties under warming in permafrost peatlands of Northeastern China Y. Song et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2021.105348
- 高寒山区土壤溶解性有机质特征及其对河流溶解性有机质输出的影响 J. Xiong et al. https://doi.org/10.3799/dqkx.2024.043
- Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge B. Zhu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101353
- Effects of Erosion Gully Drainage on Soil Organic Carbon Spatial Differentiation Pattern in Alpine Peatlands X. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-025-01907-x
- Peat Carbon Vulnerability to Projected Climate Warming in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada: A Decision Support Tool for Land Use Planning in Peatland Dominated Landscapes J. McLaughlin & M. Packalen https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.650662
- Climate change impact on peatland dynamics during the Holocene in Latvia, Northeastern Europe N. Stivrins et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2025.108965
- Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw G. Hugelius et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916387117
- Terrestrial CO2 exchange diagnosis using a peatland-optimized vegetation photosynthesis and respiration model (VPRM) for the Hudson Bay Lowlands O. Balogun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162591
- Lake changes and their driving factors in circum-arctic permafrost regions from 1990 to 2022 W. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112066
- Global peatland area and carbon dynamics from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present – a process-based model investigation J. Müller & F. Joos https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5285-2020
- Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands – continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum J. Müller & F. Joos https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021
40 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Accelerated vegetation succession but no hydrological change in a boreal fen during 20 years of recent climate change T. Kolari et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.7592
- Spatial models with covariates improve estimates of peat depth in blanket peatlands D. Young et al. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0202691
- Recent Sphagnum expansion into the tundra on the North Slope of Alaska A. Stansfield et al. https://doi.org/10.1002/ecm.70042
- Long-term monitoring of active layer thickness confirms global permafrost degradation D. Streletskiy et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-026-03824-1
- Modelling northern peatland area and carbon dynamics since the Holocene with the ORCHIDEE-PEAT land surface model (SVN r5488) C. Qiu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-12-2961-2019
- Modelling past and future peatland carbon dynamics across the pan‐Arctic N. Chaudhary et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15099
- Methane Emissions Offset Net Carbon Dioxide Uptake From an Alpine Peatland on the Eastern Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau H. Peng et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JD034671
- A Study of Dominant Vegetation Phenology in a Sphagnum Mountain Peatland Using In Situ and Sentinel‐2 Observations R. Garisoain et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JG007403
- Long-term Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) program observations in Northern Alaskan tundra K. Nyland et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2021.1988000
- Modeling Carbon Accumulation and Permafrost Dynamics of Northern Peatlands Since the Holocene B. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JG007009
- Biotic and Abiotic Drivers of Peatland Growth and Microtopography: A Model Demonstration N. Chaudhary et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10021-017-0213-1
- A Model Intercomparison Analysis for Controls on C Accumulation in North American Peatlands B. Zhao et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JG006762
- Increasing contribution of peatlands to boreal evapotranspiration in a warming climate M. Helbig et al. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-0763-7
- Recent peat and carbon accumulation following the Little Ice Age in northwestern Québec, Canada S. Piilo et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab11ec
- Winter Accumulation of Methane and its Variable Timing of Release from Thermokarst Lakes in Subarctic Peatlands A. Matveev et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005078
- Improving of operating efficiency of fire brigades during the suppression of peat fires by introducing a unit for bioactivating drinking water into a water supply concept (an example of Tver region) Y. Bogdanova et al. https://doi.org/10.1088/1757-899X/492/1/012022
- Peatlands and their carbon dynamics in northern high latitudes from 1990 to 2300: a process-based biogeochemistry model analysis B. Zhao & Q. Zhuang https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-20-251-2023
- The role of northern peatlands in the global carbon cycle for the 21st century C. Qiu et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/geb.13081
- The Canadian model for peatlands (CaMP): A peatland carbon model for national greenhouse gas reporting K. Bona et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2020.109164
- Sphagnum and herbaceous net ecosystem exchanges in a Pyrenean peatland: a long-term study using the ISBA model R. Garisoain et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-23-3407-2026
- Decreased carbon accumulation feedback driven by climate‐induced drying of two southern boreal bogs over recent centuries H. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15005
- A strong mitigation scenario maintains climate neutrality of northern peatlands C. Qiu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2021.12.008
- Variable effects of climate change on carbon balance in northern ecosystems A. Matveev https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/226/1/012023
- Contemporary, modern and ancient carbon fluxes in the Zoige peatlands on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau L. Liu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.geoderma.2019.06.008
- Matrix‐Based Sensitivity Assessment of Soil Organic Carbon Storage: A Case Study from the ORCHIDEE‐MICT Model Y. Huang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2017MS001237
- Inconsistent Response of Arctic Permafrost Peatland Carbon Accumulation to Warm Climate Phases H. Zhang et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GB005980
- Deeper snow increases the net soil organic carbon accrual rate in moist acidic tussock tundra:210Pb evidence from Arctic Alaska K. DeFranco et al. https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2020.1802864
- Modeling Pan‐Arctic Peatland Carbon Dynamics Under Alternative Warming Scenarios N. Chaudhary et al. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL095276
- ORCHIDEE-PEAT (revision 4596), a model for northern peatland CO2, water, and energy fluxes on daily to annual scales C. Qiu et al. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-11-497-2018
- Linking soil organic carbon mineralization with soil microbial and substrate properties under warming in permafrost peatlands of Northeastern China Y. Song et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2021.105348
- 高寒山区土壤溶解性有机质特征及其对河流溶解性有机质输出的影响 J. Xiong et al. https://doi.org/10.3799/dqkx.2024.043
- Warming of northern peatlands increases the global temperature overshoot challenge B. Zhu et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2025.101353
- Effects of Erosion Gully Drainage on Soil Organic Carbon Spatial Differentiation Pattern in Alpine Peatlands X. Ma et al. https://doi.org/10.1007/s13157-025-01907-x
- Peat Carbon Vulnerability to Projected Climate Warming in the Hudson Bay Lowlands, Canada: A Decision Support Tool for Land Use Planning in Peatland Dominated Landscapes J. McLaughlin & M. Packalen https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2021.650662
- Climate change impact on peatland dynamics during the Holocene in Latvia, Northeastern Europe N. Stivrins et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.catena.2025.108965
- Large stocks of peatland carbon and nitrogen are vulnerable to permafrost thaw G. Hugelius et al. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916387117
- Terrestrial CO2 exchange diagnosis using a peatland-optimized vegetation photosynthesis and respiration model (VPRM) for the Hudson Bay Lowlands O. Balogun et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.162591
- Lake changes and their driving factors in circum-arctic permafrost regions from 1990 to 2022 W. Li et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112066
- Global peatland area and carbon dynamics from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present – a process-based model investigation J. Müller & F. Joos https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5285-2020
- Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands – continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum J. Müller & F. Joos https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-3657-2021
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 01 Oct 2026
Short summary
We employed an individual- and patch-based dynamic global ecosystem model to quantify long-term C accumulation rates and to assess the effects of historical and projected climate change on peatland C balances across the pan-Arctic. We found that peatlands in Scandinavia, Europe, Russia and central and eastern Canada will become C sources, while Siberia, far eastern Russia, Alaska and western and northern Canada will increase their sink capacity by the end of the 21st century.
We employed an individual- and patch-based dynamic global ecosystem model to quantify long-term...
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