Articles | Volume 14, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4355-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-14-4355-2017
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
28 Sep 2017
Research article |
| 28 Sep 2017
The influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation regimes on eastern African vegetation and its future implications under the RCP8.5 warming scenario
Istem Fer
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Am Mühlenberg 3, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
DFG Graduate School, Shaping the Earth's Surface in a Variable Environment, University of Potsdam, Karl-Liebknecht-Str. 24, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University, 685 Commonwealth Ave, MA 02215, USA
Britta Tietjen
Biodiversity and Ecological Modelling, Institute of Biology, Freie Universität Berlin, Altensteinstr. 6, 14195 Berlin, Germany
Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195 Berlin, Germany
Florian Jeltsch
Department of Plant Ecology and Nature Conservation, Institute of Biochemistry and Biology, University of Potsdam, Am Mühlenberg 3, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
Berlin-Brandenburg Institute of Advanced Biodiversity Research (BBIB), 14195 Berlin, Germany
Christian Wolff
Climate Geochemistry Department, Max Planck Institute for Chemistry, Hahn-Meitner Weg 1, 55128 Mainz, Germany
International Pacific Research Center, School of Ocean and Earth Science and Technology, University of Hawai'i at Manoa, Honolulu, HI 96822, USA
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- Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania S. Gebrechorkos et al. 10.1002/joc.5777
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- Assessment and Evaluation of the Response of Vegetation Dynamics to Climate Variability in Africa V. Nzabarinda et al. 10.3390/su13031234
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- Modeling ENSO impact on rice production in the Mekong River Delta B. Tan Yen et al. 10.1371/journal.pone.0223884
31 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Characterizing past and future trend and frequency of extreme rainfall in urban catchments: a case study P. Mzava et al. 10.2166/h2oj.2020.009
- Statistical Evaluation of Changes and Periodicity in Rainfall Over East Africa During the Period 1960–2017 M. Ojara et al. 10.1007/s00024-022-03101-0
- Paleo-ENSO influence on African environments and early modern humans S. Kaboth-Bahr et al. 10.1073/pnas.2018277118
- Hydroclimate Trend Analysis of Upper Awash Basin, Ethiopia F. Duguma et al. 10.3390/w13121680
- Characterisation of Vegetation Response to Climate Change: A Review G. Afuye et al. 10.3390/su13137265
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- Spatio-Temporal Trends in Precipitation, Temperature, and Extremes: A Study of Malawi and Zambia (1981–2021) T. Demissie & S. Gebrechorkos 10.3390/su16103885
- Analysis of climate variability and droughts in East Africa using high-resolution climate data products S. Gebrechorkos et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103130
- Changes in March to May rainfall over Tanzania during 1978–2017 E. Makula & B. Zhou 10.1002/joc.7146
- Integrating evidence of land use and land cover change for land management policy formulation along the Kenya-Tanzania borderlands C. Courtney Mustaphi et al. 10.1016/j.ancene.2019.100228
- Rainfall Variability and Trends over the African Continent Using TAMSAT Data (1983–2020): Towards Climate Change Resilience and Adaptation N. Alahacoon et al. 10.3390/rs14010096
- Artificial intelligent systems optimized by metaheuristic algorithms and teleconnection indices for rainfall modeling: The case of a humid region in the mediterranean basin B. Zerouali et al. 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15355
- An assimilated deep learning approach to identify the influence of global climate on hydrological fluxes I. Kalu et al. 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2022.128498
- Characterizing El Niño-Southern Oscillation Effects on the Blue Nile Yield and the Nile River Basin Precipitation using Empirical Mode Decomposition J. Le et al. 10.1007/s41748-020-00192-4
- Modelling Climate Suitability for Rainfed Maize Cultivation in Kenya Using a Maximum Entropy (MaxENT) Approach B. Kogo et al. 10.3390/agronomy9110727
- Long-term spatiotemporal variation of drought patterns over the Greater Horn of Africa G. Gebremeskel Haile et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135299
- Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends and variability in semi-arid Tharaka South Subcounty, Kenya C. Kaua et al. 10.3354/cr01696
- Building Energy Simulations Based on Weather Forecast Meteorological Model: The Case of an Institutional Building in Greece E. Giama et al. 10.3390/en16010191
- Decadal and multidecadal natural variability of African rainfall H. Lüdecke et al. 10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100795
- Long Term Historical Precipitation and Temperature Trend Analysis for Selected Stations in Bale and East Bale Zones of Southeastern Ethiopia Z. Tufa et al. 10.11648/j.ijaos.20240801.12
- Tropical Wetland (TropWet) Mapping Tool: The Automatic Detection of Open and Vegetated Waterbodies in Google Earth Engine for Tropical Wetlands A. Hardy et al. 10.3390/rs12071182
- Wavelet-based analysis of hydro-climatic and vegetation dynamics in heterogeneous agro-climatic zones of East Africa P. Batungwanayo et al. 10.2166/wcc.2024.257
- The climate and vegetation backdrop to hominin evolution in Africa W. Gosling et al. 10.1098/rstb.2020.0483
- Changes in temperature and precipitation extremes in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Tanzania S. Gebrechorkos et al. 10.1002/joc.5777
- Atmospheric Black Carbon Loadings and Sources over Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa Are Governed by the Regional Savanna Fires L. Kirago et al. 10.1021/acs.est.2c05837
- Impact of Climate Change on the Production of Coffea arabica at Mt. Kilimanjaro, Tanzania S. Wagner et al. 10.3390/agriculture11010053
- Projected changes in East African climate and its impacts on climatic suitability of maize production areas by the mid-twenty-first century M. Ojara et al. 10.1007/s10661-021-09547-4
- Long-term trends in rainfall and temperature using high-resolution climate datasets in East Africa S. Gebrechorkos et al. 10.1038/s41598-019-47933-8
- Assessment and Evaluation of the Response of Vegetation Dynamics to Climate Variability in Africa V. Nzabarinda et al. 10.3390/su13031234
- Assessment of climate characteristics and long-term trends of rainfall and drought in the Congo River Basin E. Mabrouk et al. 10.2166/wcc.2022.241
- Increased impact of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation on global vegetation under future warming environment T. Le 10.1038/s41598-023-41590-8
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Discussed (final revised paper)
Discussed (preprint)
Latest update: 14 Dec 2024
Short summary
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been identified as one of the main drivers for the interannual variability in eastern African rainfall. But we know little about its direct impact on vegetation and how it might change in the future. In this study, we quantified this relationship and predict its future under certain climate change scenarios. Results suggest that we need to consider an increase in future ENSO intensity to cover the full range of potential changes in vegetation responses.
El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has been identified as one of the main drivers for the...
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