Articles | Volume 17, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020
Research article
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15 Jun 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 15 Jun 2020

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2

Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn

Data sets

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 World Climate Research Program https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/

Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project, Globally averaged data and EMIC data repository M. Eby http://terra.seos.uvic.ca/ZEC

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Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
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