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Biogeosciences An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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BG | Articles | Volume 17, issue 11
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, 2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Research article 15 Jun 2020

Research article | 15 Jun 2020

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2

Andrew H. MacDougall et al.

Data sets

Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 World Climate Research Program https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/

Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project, Globally averaged data and EMIC data repository M. Eby http://terra.seos.uvic.ca/ZEC

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Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur...
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