Articles | Volume 17, issue 11
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| Highlight paper
| 
15 Jun 2020
Research article | Highlight paper |
| 15 Jun 2020
| 15 Jun 2020
Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2
Climate & Environment, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Nova Scotia, B2G 2W5, Canada
Thomas L. Frölicher
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Chris D. Jones
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Joeri Rogelj
Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2BU, UK
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria
H. Damon Matthews
Department of Geography, Concordia University, Montreal, Quebec, H3G 1M8, Canada
Kirsten Zickfeld
Department of Geography, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, British Columbia, V5A 1S6, Canada
Vivek K. Arora
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, British Columbia, V8W 2Y2, Canada
Noah J. Barrett
Climate & Environment, St. Francis Xavier University, Antigonish, Nova Scotia, B2G 2W5, Canada
Victor Brovkin
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
CEN, University of Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Friedrich A. Burger
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Micheal Eby
School of Earth and Ocean Sciences, University of Victoria, Victoria, British Columbia, V8W 2Y2, Canada
Alexey V. Eliseev
Faculty of Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Tomohiro Hajima
Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Philip B. Holden
School of Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UK
Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Charles Koven
Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab, Berkeley, CA, USA
Nadine Mengis
Biogeochemical Modelling Department, GEOMAR – Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, Germany
Laurie Menviel
Climate Change Research Centre, PANGEA, The University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, Australia
Martine Michou
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Igor I. Mokhov
Faculty of Physics, Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow, Russia
A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia
Akira Oka
Atmosphere and Ocean Research Institute, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan
Jörg Schwinger
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Roland Séférian
CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France
Gary Shaffer
Research Center GAIA Antarctica, University of Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile
Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark
Andrei Sokolov
Center for Global Change Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, USA
Kaoru Tachiiri
Research Center for Environmental Modeling and Application, Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan
Jerry Tjiputra
NORCE Norwegian Research Centre, Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway
Andrew Wiltshire
Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, UK
Tilo Ziehn
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, VIC, Australia
Data sets
Coupled Model Intercomparison Project, Phase 6 World Climate Research Program https://esgf-node.llnl.gov/projects/cmip6/
Zero Emissions Commitment Model Intercomparison Project, Globally averaged data and EMIC data repository M. Eby http://terra.seos.uvic.ca/ZEC
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Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur...
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