Articles | Volume 17, issue 11
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, 2020
Biogeosciences, 17, 2987–3016, 2020

Research article 15 Jun 2020

Research article | 15 Jun 2020

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2

Andrew H. MacDougall et al.


Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (30 Apr 2020) by Carolin Löscher
AR by Anna Wenzel on behalf of the Authors (13 May 2020)  Author's response    Manuscript
ED: Publish as is (15 May 2020) by Carolin Löscher

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Short summary
The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO2 emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO2 emission cannot be ruled out.
Final-revised paper