Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO<sub>2</sub>

MacDougall, Andrew H.; Frölicher, Thomas L.; Jones, Chris D.; Rogelj, Joeri; Matthews, H. Damon; Zickfeld, Kirsten; Arora, Vivek K.; Barrett, Noah J.; Brovkin, Victor; Burger, Friedrich A.; Eby, Micheal; Eliseev, Alexey V.; Hajima, Tomohiro; Holden, Philip B.; Jeltsch-Thömmes, Aurich; Koven, Charles; Mengis, Nadine; Menviel, Laurie; Michou, Martine; Mokhov, Igor I.; Oka, Akira; Schwinger, Jörg; Séférian, Roland; Shaffer, Gary; Sokolov, Andrei; Tachiiri, Kaoru; Tjiputra, Jerry; Wiltshire, Andrew; Ziehn, Tilo

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020

Articles | Volume 17, issue 11

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2987-2020

© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 17, issue 11

Research article

| Highlight paper

|

15 Jun 2020

Research article | Highlight paper |

| 15 Jun 2020

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO₂

Andrew H. MacDougall, Thomas L. Frölicher, Chris D. Jones, Joeri Rogelj, H. Damon Matthews, Kirsten Zickfeld, Vivek K. Arora, Noah J. Barrett, Victor Brovkin, Friedrich A. Burger, Micheal Eby, Alexey V. Eliseev, Tomohiro Hajima, Philip B. Holden, Aurich Jeltsch-Thömmes, Charles Koven, Nadine Mengis, Laurie Menviel, Martine Michou, Igor I. Mokhov, Akira Oka, Jörg Schwinger, Roland Séférian, Gary Shaffer, Andrei Sokolov, Kaoru Tachiiri, Jerry Tjiputra, Andrew Wiltshire, and Tilo Ziehn

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Final revised paper (published on 15 Jun 2020)
Preprint (discussion started on 20 Jan 2020)

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Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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RC1: 'Review', Anonymous Referee #1, 24 Feb 2020
- AC1: 'Response to Reviewers', Andrew MacDougall, 28 Apr 2020
RC2: 'Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the zero emission commitment from CO2', Ric Williams, 28 Feb 2020
- AC1: 'Response to Reviewers', Andrew MacDougall, 28 Apr 2020

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Publish subject to minor revisions (review by editor) (30 Apr 2020) by Carolin Löscher

AR by Andrew MacDougall on behalf of the Authors (30 Apr 2020)

ED: Publish as is (15 May 2020) by Carolin Löscher

AR by Andrew MacDougall on behalf of the Authors (15 May 2020)

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Short summary

The Zero Emissions Commitment (ZEC) is the change in global temperature expected to occur following the complete cessation of CO₂ emissions. Here we use 18 climate models to assess the value of ZEC. For our experiment we find that ZEC 50 years after emissions cease is between −0.36 to +0.29 °C. The most likely value of ZEC is assessed to be close to zero. However, substantial continued warming for decades or centuries following cessation of CO₂ emission cannot be ruled out.

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2

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Interactive discussion

Peer-review completion

Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO₂