Articles | Volume 17, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of
Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom
Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham,
Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom
Tim Rademacher
Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard
University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona
University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona
University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
Sarah L. Shafer
Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, U.S. Geological
Survey, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
Jörg Steinkamp
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F),
Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Zentrum für Datenverarbeitung, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Anselm-Franz-von-Bentzel-Weg 12,
55128 Mainz, Germany
Jonathan Barichivich
Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad
Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL,
CNRS–CEA–UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Brian Beckage
Department of Plant Biology & Department of Computer Science,
University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA
Vanessa Haverd
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, P.O. Box 3023, Canberra, ACT 2601,
Australia
Anna Harper
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences,
University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Jens Heinke
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK),
Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Kazuya Nishina
Center for Regional Environmental Research, National Institute for
Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
Anja Rammig
School of Life Sciences,
Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich (TUM), 85354 Freising, Germany
Hisashi Sato
Institute of Arctic Climate and Environment Research (IACE), Japan
Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 3173-25
Showamachi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Almut Arneth
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, 82467
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Stijn Hantson
Department of Earth System Science, University of California,
Irvine, CA 92697, USA
Thomas Hickler
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F),
Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University,
Altenhöferallee 1, 60348 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Markus Kautz
Department of Forest Health, Forest Research Institute
Baden-Württemberg, 79100 Freiburg, Germany
Benjamin Quesada
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, 82467
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Faculty of Natural Sciences, Climate–Ecosystems Interactions Research Group (ICE), Universidad del Rosario, Cra
26 63b-48, 111221, Bogotá, Colombia
Benjamin Smith
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, 22362 Lund, Sweden
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University,
Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia
Kirsten Thonicke
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK),
Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
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Latest update: 06 Nov 2025
Short summary
The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in...
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