Articles | Volume 17, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
05 Aug 2020
Research article |
| 05 Aug 2020
| 05 Aug 2020
Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover
School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of
Birmingham, Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom
Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham,
Birmingham, B15 2TT, United Kingdom
Tim Rademacher
Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology, Harvard
University, Cambridge, MA 02138, USA
School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems, Northern Arizona
University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
Center for Ecosystem Science and Society, Northern Arizona
University, Flagstaff, AZ 86011, USA
Sarah L. Shafer
Geosciences and Environmental Change Science Center, U.S. Geological
Survey, 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA
Jörg Steinkamp
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F),
Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Zentrum für Datenverarbeitung, Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz, Anselm-Franz-von-Bentzel-Weg 12,
55128 Mainz, Germany
Jonathan Barichivich
Instituto de Conservación Biodiversidad y Territorio, Universidad
Austral de Chile, Valdivia, Chile
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, IPSL,
CNRS–CEA–UVSQ, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
Brian Beckage
Department of Plant Biology & Department of Computer Science,
University of Vermont, Burlington, VT 05405, USA
Vanessa Haverd
CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, P.O. Box 3023, Canberra, ACT 2601,
Australia
Anna Harper
College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences,
University of Exeter, Exeter, EX4 4QE, United Kingdom
Jens Heinke
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK),
Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
Kazuya Nishina
Center for Regional Environmental Research, National Institute for
Environmental Studies (NIES), 16-2, Onogawa, Tsukuba, 305-8506, Japan
Anja Rammig
School of Life Sciences,
Weihenstephan, Technical University of Munich (TUM), 85354 Freising, Germany
Hisashi Sato
Institute of Arctic Climate and Environment Research (IACE), Japan
Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), 3173-25
Showamachi, Kanazawa-ku, Yokohama, 236-0001, Japan
Almut Arneth
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, 82467
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Stijn Hantson
Department of Earth System Science, University of California,
Irvine, CA 92697, USA
Thomas Hickler
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F),
Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University,
Altenhöferallee 1, 60348 Frankfurt am Main, Germany
Markus Kautz
Department of Forest Health, Forest Research Institute
Baden-Württemberg, 79100 Freiburg, Germany
Benjamin Quesada
Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research – Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Kreuzeckbahnstrasse 19, 82467
Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
Faculty of Natural Sciences, Climate–Ecosystems Interactions Research Group (ICE), Universidad del Rosario, Cra
26 63b-48, 111221, Bogotá, Colombia
Benjamin Smith
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund
University, 22362 Lund, Sweden
Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University,
Locked Bag 1797, Penrith, NSW 2751, Australia
Kirsten Thonicke
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK),
Telegrafenberg, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
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51 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Attributing Past Carbon Fluxes to CO2 and Climate Change: Respiration Response to CO2 Fertilization Shifts Regional Distribution of the Carbon Sink G. Quetin et al. 10.1029/2022GB007478
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- Contrasting carbon cycle along tropical forest aridity gradients in West Africa and Amazonia H. Zhang-Zheng et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-47202-x
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- Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies J. Holm et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023
- Tree Growth Enhancement Drives a Persistent Biomass Gain in Unmanaged Temperate Forests L. Marqués et al. 10.1029/2022AV000859
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- On the link between tree size and ecosystem carbon sequestration capacity across continental forests M. Zhao et al. 10.1002/ecs2.4079
- How do global forest pests respond to increasing temperatures? – a meta‐analysis H. Warlo & M. Kautz 10.1111/oik.10842
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- Cross-biome synthesis of source versus sink limits to tree growth A. Cabon et al. 10.1126/science.abm4875
- Probing the interplay of biophysical constraints and photosynthesis to model tree growth A. Cabon et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109852
- Altered growth conditions more than reforestation counteracted forest biomass carbon emissions 1990–2020 J. Le Noë et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-26398-2
- Increased Central European forest mortality explained by higher harvest rates driven by enhanced productivity M. Scheel et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac9635
- Insights into source/sink controls on wood formation and photosynthesis from a stem chilling experiment in mature red maple T. Rademacher et al. 10.1111/nph.18421
- Quantifying the mitigation of temperature extremes by forests and wetlands in a temperate landscape C. Gohr et al. 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101442
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- The declining tropical carbon sink A. Rammig & D. Lapola 10.1038/s41558-021-01135-1
- Event Based Post-Fire Hydrological Modeling of the Upper Arroyo Seco Watershed in Southern California N. Pradhan & I. Floyd 10.3390/w13162303
- Ancient fires enhance Amazon forest drought resistance L. Vedovato et al. 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1024101
- Modelling the impact of forest management and CO2-fertilisation on growth and demography in a Sitka spruce plantation A. Argles et al. 10.1038/s41598-023-39810-2
- Inferring Grassland Drought Stress with Unsupervised Learning from Airborne Hyperspectral VNIR Imagery F. Hermanns et al. 10.3390/rs13101885
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- Climate change critically affects the status of the land-system change planetary boundary A. Tobian et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad40c2
- Overlooked branch turnover creates a widespread bias in forest carbon accounting H. Lim et al. 10.1073/pnas.2401035121
- Individual tree damage dominates mortality risk factors across six tropical forests D. Zuleta et al. 10.1111/nph.17832
- Tree death and damage: A standardized protocol for frequent surveys in tropical forests G. Arellano et al. 10.1111/jvs.12981
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- Drought alters aboveground biomass production efficiency: Insights from two European beech forests J. Wei et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170726
- Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide H. Hartmann et al. 10.1146/annurev-arplant-102820-012804
- Effects of global change and human disturbance on soil carbon cycling in boreal forest: A review P. SHAO et al. 10.1016/j.pedsph.2022.06.035
51 citations as recorded by crossref.
- ICESat-2 Derived Canopy Covers With Radiometric and Reflectance Ratio Corrections Q. Zhang et al. 10.1109/TGRS.2024.3349559
- A data-driven estimate of litterfall and forest carbon turnover and the drivers of their inter-annual variabilities in forest ecosystems across China X. Zhao et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.153341
- Numerical model to simulate long-term soil organic carbon and ground ice budget with permafrost and ice sheets (SOC-ICE-v1.0) K. Saito et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-521-2021
- Advancing forest carbon stocks’ mapping using a hierarchical approach with machine learning and satellite imagery S. Illarionova et al. 10.1038/s41598-024-71133-8
- Attributing Past Carbon Fluxes to CO2 and Climate Change: Respiration Response to CO2 Fertilization Shifts Regional Distribution of the Carbon Sink G. Quetin et al. 10.1029/2022GB007478
- The significance of large old trees and tree cavities for forest carbon estimates M. Hauck et al. 10.1016/j.foreco.2023.121319
- Trait–environment relationships are timescale dependent E. Cui 10.1111/nph.19546
- Forest structure explains spatial heterogeneity of decadal carbon dynamics in a cool-temperate forest K. Takagi et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad774a
- Drought-induced decoupling between carbon uptake and tree growth impacts forest carbon turnover time S. Kannenberg et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2022.108996
- Contrasting carbon cycle along tropical forest aridity gradients in West Africa and Amazonia H. Zhang-Zheng et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-47202-x
- Robust Ecosystem Demography (RED version 1.0): a parsimonious approach to modelling vegetation dynamics in Earth system models A. Argles et al. 10.5194/gmd-13-4067-2020
- Exploring the impacts of unprecedented climate extremes on forest ecosystems: hypotheses to guide modeling and experimental studies J. Holm et al. 10.5194/bg-20-2117-2023
- Tree Growth Enhancement Drives a Persistent Biomass Gain in Unmanaged Temperate Forests L. Marqués et al. 10.1029/2022AV000859
- The global biogeography of tree leaf form and habit H. Ma et al. 10.1038/s41477-023-01543-5
- Different trends of vegetation activity over northern extratropics during two multidecadal warming periods in the 20th century Z. Guo et al. 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2023.104181
- On the link between tree size and ecosystem carbon sequestration capacity across continental forests M. Zhao et al. 10.1002/ecs2.4079
- How do global forest pests respond to increasing temperatures? – a meta‐analysis H. Warlo & M. Kautz 10.1111/oik.10842
- Carbon and Nitrogen Turnover Times of South Korean Forests Estimated via Data‐Model Fusion H. Kim et al. 10.1029/2021JG006368
- Field-based tree mortality constraint reduces estimates of model-projected forest carbon sinks K. Yu et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-29619-4
- The role of woody detritus in biogeochemical cycles: past, present, and future M. Harmon 10.1007/s10533-020-00751-x
- The Role of Deadwood in the Carbon Cycle: Implications for Models, Forest Management, and Future Climates B. Wijas et al. 10.1146/annurev-ecolsys-110421-102327
- Cross-biome synthesis of source versus sink limits to tree growth A. Cabon et al. 10.1126/science.abm4875
- Probing the interplay of biophysical constraints and photosynthesis to model tree growth A. Cabon et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109852
- Altered growth conditions more than reforestation counteracted forest biomass carbon emissions 1990–2020 J. Le Noë et al. 10.1038/s41467-021-26398-2
- Increased Central European forest mortality explained by higher harvest rates driven by enhanced productivity M. Scheel et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac9635
- Insights into source/sink controls on wood formation and photosynthesis from a stem chilling experiment in mature red maple T. Rademacher et al. 10.1111/nph.18421
- Quantifying the mitigation of temperature extremes by forests and wetlands in a temperate landscape C. Gohr et al. 10.1016/j.ecoinf.2021.101442
- Predicting global terrestrial biomes with the LeNet convolutional neural network H. Sato & T. Ise 10.5194/gmd-15-3121-2022
- Performance evaluation of GEDI and ICESat-2 laser altimeter data for terrain and canopy height retrievals A. Liu et al. 10.1016/j.rse.2021.112571
- The declining tropical carbon sink A. Rammig & D. Lapola 10.1038/s41558-021-01135-1
- Event Based Post-Fire Hydrological Modeling of the Upper Arroyo Seco Watershed in Southern California N. Pradhan & I. Floyd 10.3390/w13162303
- Ancient fires enhance Amazon forest drought resistance L. Vedovato et al. 10.3389/ffgc.2023.1024101
- Modelling the impact of forest management and CO2-fertilisation on growth and demography in a Sitka spruce plantation A. Argles et al. 10.1038/s41598-023-39810-2
- Inferring Grassland Drought Stress with Unsupervised Learning from Airborne Hyperspectral VNIR Imagery F. Hermanns et al. 10.3390/rs13101885
- Biogeographic pattern of living vegetation carbon turnover time in mature forests across continents K. Yu et al. 10.1111/geb.13736
- A decrease in the age of respired carbon from the terrestrial biosphere and increase in the asymmetry of its distribution C. Sierra et al. 10.1098/rsta.2022.0200
- A joint framework for studying compound ecoclimatic events A. Bastos et al. 10.1038/s43017-023-00410-3
- Tracking tree demography and forest dynamics at scale using remote sensing R. Battison et al. 10.1111/nph.20199
- Sub-Daily Natural CO2 Flux Simulation Based on Satellite Data: Diurnal and Seasonal Pattern Comparisons to Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions in the Greater Tokyo Area Q. Wang et al. 10.3390/rs13112037
- Assessing the representation of the Australian carbon cycle in global vegetation models L. Teckentrup et al. 10.5194/bg-18-5639-2021
- Process-Based Modeling of Phenology and Radial Growth in Pinus tabuliformis in Response to Climate Factors over a Cold and Semi-Arid Region Z. Man et al. 10.3390/plants13070980
- Climate change critically affects the status of the land-system change planetary boundary A. Tobian et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ad40c2
- Overlooked branch turnover creates a widespread bias in forest carbon accounting H. Lim et al. 10.1073/pnas.2401035121
- Individual tree damage dominates mortality risk factors across six tropical forests D. Zuleta et al. 10.1111/nph.17832
- Tree death and damage: A standardized protocol for frequent surveys in tropical forests G. Arellano et al. 10.1111/jvs.12981
- The role of high-biodiversity regions in preserving Nature’s Contributions to People M. Cimatti et al. 10.1038/s41893-023-01179-5
- Thermophilisation of Afromontane forest stands demonstrated in an elevation gradient experiment B. Ntirugulirwa et al. 10.5194/bg-20-5125-2023
- Interaction of age and elevation on xylogenesis in Juniperus przewalskii in a cold and arid region J. Zhang et al. 10.1016/j.agrformet.2023.109480
- Drought alters aboveground biomass production efficiency: Insights from two European beech forests J. Wei et al. 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2024.170726
- Climate Change Risks to Global Forest Health: Emergence of Unexpected Events of Elevated Tree Mortality Worldwide H. Hartmann et al. 10.1146/annurev-arplant-102820-012804
- Effects of global change and human disturbance on soil carbon cycling in boreal forest: A review P. SHAO et al. 10.1016/j.pedsph.2022.06.035
Latest update: 13 Nov 2024
Short summary
The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in...
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