Articles | Volume 17, issue 15
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-3961-2020
Research article
 | 
05 Aug 2020
Research article |  | 05 Aug 2020

Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover

Thomas A. M. Pugh, Tim Rademacher, Sarah L. Shafer, Jörg Steinkamp, Jonathan Barichivich, Brian Beckage, Vanessa Haverd, Anna Harper, Jens Heinke, Kazuya Nishina, Anja Rammig, Hisashi Sato, Almut Arneth, Stijn Hantson, Thomas Hickler, Markus Kautz, Benjamin Quesada, Benjamin Smith, and Kirsten Thonicke

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Cited articles

Adams, H. D., MacAlady, A. K., Breshears, D. D., Allen, C. D., Stephenson, N. L., Saleska, S. R., Huxman, T. E., and McDowell, N. G.: Climate-induced tree mortality: Earth system consequences, Eos, 91, 153–154, https://doi.org/10.1029/2010EO170003, 2010. 
Adams, H. D., Williams, A. P., Xu, C., Rauscher, S. A., Jiang, X., and McDowell, N. G.: Empirical and process-based approaches to climate-induced forest mortality models, Front. Plant Sci., 4, 438, https://doi.org/10.3389/fpls.2013.00438, 2013. 
Ahlström, A., Schurgers, G., Arneth, A., and Smith, B.: Robustness and uncertainty in terrestrial ecosystem carbon response to CMIP5 climate change projections, Environ. Res. Lett., 7, 044008, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044008, 2012. 
Ahlström, A., Xia, J., Arneth, A., Luo, Y., and Smith, B.: Importance of vegetation dynamics for future terrestrial carbon cycling, Environ. Res. Lett., 10, 054019, https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054019, 2015a. 
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Short summary
The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle. Estimates from six contemporary models found this time to range from 12.2 to 23.5 years for the global mean for 1985–2014. Future projections do not give consistent results, but 13 model-based hypotheses are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations, which would help to reduce large current uncertainty.
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