Uncertainty in the evolution of northwestern North Atlantic circulation leads to diverging biogeochemical projections

Rutherford, Krysten; Fennel, Katja; Garcia Suarez, Lina; John, Jasmin G.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-301-2024

Articles | Volume 21, issue 1

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-301-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-301-2024

© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 21, issue 1

Research article

|

17 Jan 2024

Research article |

| 17 Jan 2024

Uncertainty in the evolution of northwestern North Atlantic circulation leads to diverging biogeochemical projections

Krysten Rutherford, Katja Fennel, Lina Garcia Suarez, and Jasmin G. John

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-301-2024-supplement

Data sets

Regional model (ACM) output used to investigate the uncertainty in regional future projections of the northwest North Atlantic K. Rutherford et al. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10494772

Model code and software

Ocean forecasting in terrain-following coordinates: Formulation and skill assessment of the Regional Ocean Modeling System (https://www.myroms.org) D. Haidvogel et al. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcp.2007.06.016

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Short summary

We downscaled two mid-century (~2075) ocean model projections to a high-resolution regional ocean model of the northwest North Atlantic (NA) shelf. In one projection, the NA shelf break current practically disappears; in the other it remains almost unchanged. This leads to a wide range of possible future shelf properties. More accurate projections of coastal circulation features would narrow the range of possible outcomes of biogeochemical projections for shelf regions.