Articles | Volume 21, issue 1
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-301-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-21-301-2024
© Author(s) 2024. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
17 Jan 2024
Research article |
| 17 Jan 2024
| 17 Jan 2024
Uncertainty in the evolution of northwestern North Atlantic circulation leads to diverging biogeochemical projections
Krysten Rutherford
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
Institute of Ocean Science, Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Sidney, BC, V8L 4B2, Canada
Katja Fennel
Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
Lina Garcia Suarez
Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, NS, B3H 4R2, Canada
Jasmin G. John
NOAA/OAR/Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory, Miami, FL 33149, USA
NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA
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Arnaud Laurent, Katja Fennel, and Angela Kuhn
Biogeosciences, 18, 1803–1822, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1803-2021, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-18-1803-2021, 2021
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Claudia Tebaldi, Kevin Debeire, Veronika Eyring, Erich Fischer, John Fyfe, Pierre Friedlingstein, Reto Knutti, Jason Lowe, Brian O'Neill, Benjamin Sanderson, Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi, Malte Meinshausen, Zebedee Nicholls, Katarzyna B. Tokarska, George Hurtt, Elmar Kriegler, Jean-Francois Lamarque, Gerald Meehl, Richard Moss, Susanne E. Bauer, Olivier Boucher, Victor Brovkin, Young-Hwa Byun, Martin Dix, Silvio Gualdi, Huan Guo, Jasmin G. John, Slava Kharin, YoungHo Kim, Tsuyoshi Koshiro, Libin Ma, Dirk Olivié, Swapna Panickal, Fangli Qiao, Xinyao Rong, Nan Rosenbloom, Martin Schupfner, Roland Séférian, Alistair Sellar, Tido Semmler, Xiaoying Shi, Zhenya Song, Christian Steger, Ronald Stouffer, Neil Swart, Kaoru Tachiiri, Qi Tang, Hiroaki Tatebe, Aurore Voldoire, Evgeny Volodin, Klaus Wyser, Xiaoge Xin, Shuting Yang, Yongqiang Yu, and Tilo Ziehn
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We present an overview of CMIP6 ScenarioMIP outcomes from up to 38 participating ESMs according to the new SSP-based scenarios. Average temperature and precipitation projections according to a wide range of forcings, spanning a wider range than the CMIP5 projections, are documented as global averages and geographic patterns. Times of crossing various warming levels are computed, together with benefits of mitigation for selected pairs of scenarios. Comparisons with CMIP5 are also discussed.
Steven T. Turnock, Robert J. Allen, Martin Andrews, Susanne E. Bauer, Makoto Deushi, Louisa Emmons, Peter Good, Larry Horowitz, Jasmin G. John, Martine Michou, Pierre Nabat, Vaishali Naik, David Neubauer, Fiona M. O'Connor, Dirk Olivié, Naga Oshima, Michael Schulz, Alistair Sellar, Sungbo Shim, Toshihiko Takemura, Simone Tilmes, Kostas Tsigaridis, Tongwen Wu, and Jie Zhang
Atmos. Chem. Phys., 20, 14547–14579, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-20-14547-2020, 2020
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Haiyan Zhang, Katja Fennel, Arnaud Laurent, and Changwei Bian
Biogeosciences, 17, 5745–5761, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5745-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-5745-2020, 2020
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Friedrich A. Burger, Jasmin G. John, and Thomas L. Frölicher
Biogeosciences, 17, 4633–4662, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4633-2020, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-4633-2020, 2020
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Ensemble simulations of an Earth system model reveal that ocean acidity extremes have increased in the past few decades and are projected to increase further in terms of frequency, intensity, duration, and volume extent. The increase is not only caused by the long-term ocean acidification due to the uptake of anthropogenic CO2, but also due to changes in short-term variability. The increase in ocean acidity extremes may enhance the risk of detrimental impacts on marine organisms.
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Short summary
We downscaled two mid-century (~2075) ocean model projections to a high-resolution regional ocean model of the northwest North Atlantic (NA) shelf. In one projection, the NA shelf break current practically disappears; in the other it remains almost unchanged. This leads to a wide range of possible future shelf properties. More accurate projections of coastal circulation features would narrow the range of possible outcomes of biogeochemical projections for shelf regions.
We downscaled two mid-century (~2075) ocean model projections to a high-resolution regional...
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