Articles | Volume 22, issue 12
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2767-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-2767-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
19 Jun 2025
Research article |
| 19 Jun 2025
| 19 Jun 2025
Assessing the lifetime of anthropogenic CO2 and its sensitivity to different carbon cycle processes
Christine Kaufhold
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Department of Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Physics and Astronomy, Universität Potsdam, Potsdam, Germany
Matteo Willeit
Department of Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
Universität Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
Andrey Ganopolski
Department of Earth System Analysis, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 601203, 14412 Potsdam, Germany
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We propose a model for glacial cycles and produce an assessment of possible trajectories for the next 1 million years. Under natural conditions, the next glacial inception would most likely occur ∼50 kyr after present. We show that fossil-fuel CO2 releases can have an extremely long-term effect. Potentially achievable CO2 anthropogenic emissions during the next centuries will most likely provoke ice-free conditions in the Northern Hemisphere landmasses throughout the next half a million years.
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We incorporate a new representation of the stable carbon isotope 13C in a global ocean biogeochemistry model. The model well reproduces the present-day 13C observations. We find a recent observation-based estimate of the oceanic 13C Suess effect (the decrease in 13C/12C ratio due to uptake of anthropogenic CO2; 13CSE) possibly underestimates 13CSE by 0.1–0.26 per mil. The new model will aid in better understanding the past ocean state via comparison to 13C/12C measurements from sediment cores.
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Short summary
This study simulates long-term future climate scenarios to assess the persistence of CO2 emissions in the atmosphere. Results show that the land stores 4 %–13 % of emissions after 100 kyr and that the removal timescale of CO2 for silicate weathering is shorter than previously expected. Our study highlights the importance of adding model complexity to the global carbon cycle in Earth system models for improved predictions of long-term atmospheric CO2 concentration.
This study simulates long-term future climate scenarios to assess the persistence of CO2...
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