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Articles | Volume 22, issue 14
Articles | Volume 22, issue 14
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3503-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-3503-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 14
Research article
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23 Jul 2025
Research article | Highlight paper |  | 23 Jul 2025

Occupancy history influences extinction risk of fossil marine microplankton groups

Isaiah E. Smith, Ádám T. Kocsis, and Wolfgang Kiessling

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This contribution uses occurrences of four major marine microplankton groups from a large paleontological database to test the hypothesis that changes in geographic range of a species predict extinction. The authors demonstrated that changes in geographic range are a dominant predictor of extinction risk in marine plankton. This result highlights the vulnerability of different plankton groups to extinction and shows the importance of paleontological observations for predicting extinction patterns in modern species.
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We examine how change in a species' geographic range size over time influences that species' extinction risk. We analyze instantaneous range size and range size change and how these terms relate to extinction risk in marine microplankton. We find that both the instantaneous range size and the change in range size are informative predictors of extinction. Using predictive models, we also assess extinction probability in four extant groups.
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