Biogeosciences
Biogeosciences
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Articles | Volume 22, issue 18
Articles | Volume 22, issue 18
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5031-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-22-5031-2025
© Author(s) 2025. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Articles | Volume 22, issue 18
Research article
 | 
29 Sep 2025
Research article |  | 29 Sep 2025

Snow thermal conductivity controls future winter carbon emissions in shrub–tundra

Johnny Rutherford, Nick Rutter, Leanne Wake, and Alex J. Cannon

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Latest update: 25 Jun 2026
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Short summary
The Arctic winter is vulnerable to climate warming, and ~1700 Gt of carbon stored in high-latitude permafrost ecosystems is at risk of degradation in the future due to enhanced microbial activity. Poorly represented cold season processes, such as the simulation of snow thermal conductivity in land surface models (LSMs), cause uncertainty in projected carbon emission simulations. Improved snow conductivity parameterization in CLM5.0 significantly increases predicted winter CO2 emissions to 2100.
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