Inverse estimation of source parameters of oceanic radioactivity dispersion models associated with the Fukushima accident

Abstract. With combined use of the ocean–atmosphere simulation models and field observation data, we evaluate the parameters associated with the total caesium-137 amounts of the direct release into the ocean and atmospheric deposition over the western North Pacific caused by the accident of Fukushima Daiichi nuclear power plant (FNPP) that occurred in March 2011. The Green's function approach is adopted for the estimation of two parameters determining the total emission amounts for the period from 12 March to 6 May 2011. It is confirmed that the validity of the estimation depends on the simulation skill near FNPP. The total amount of the direct release is estimated as 5.5–5.9 × 10¹⁵ Bq, while that of the atmospheric deposition is estimated as 5.5–9.7 × 10¹⁵ Bq, which indicates broader range of the estimate than that of the direct release owing to uncertainty of the dispersion widely spread over the western North Pacific.