Articles | Volume 12, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015
© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Research article
| 
07 Dec 2015
Research article |
| 07 Dec 2015
Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models
C. Laufkötter
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
M. Vogt
Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
N. Gruber
Environmental Physics, Institute of Biogeochemistry and Pollutant Dynamics, ETH Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
M. Aita-Noguchi
Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Tokyo, Japan
O. Aumont
Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans, Centre IRD de Bretagne, Plouzane, France
Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA-UVSQ-CNRS,UMR8212, Gif-sur-Yvette, France
E. Buitenhuis
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK
S. C. Doney
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Department of Marine Chemistry & Geochemistry, Woods Hole MA, USA
J. Dunne
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
T. Hashioka
Core Research for Evolutional Science and Technology, Japan Science and Technology Agency, Tokyo, Japan
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
T. Hirata
Faculty of Environmental Earth Science, Hokkaido University, Japan
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey, USA
C. Le Quéré
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich Research Park, Norwich, NR47TJ, UK
I. D. Lima
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Department of Marine Chemistry & Geochemistry, Woods Hole MA, USA
H. Nakano
Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan
R. Seferian
CNRM-GAME, Centre National de Recherche Météorologique, Groupe d'Étude de l'Atmosphère Météorologique, Météo-France/CNRS, 42 Avenue Gaspard Coriolis, 31100 Toulouse, France
I. Totterdell
Met Office, Exeter, UK
Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy
Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town (UCT), South Africa
C. Völker
Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bremerhaven, Germany
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Latest update: 15 Nov 2025
Short summary
We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century...
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