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We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
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Articles | Volume 12, issue 23
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, 2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015

Research article 07 Dec 2015

Research article | 07 Dec 2015

Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

C. Laufkötter et al.

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Cited articles

Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle., Nature, 419, 224–32, https://doi.org/10.1038/nature01092, 2002.
Alvain, S., Le Quéré, C., Bopp, L., Racault, M.-F., Beaugrand, G., Dessailly, D., and Buitenhuis, E. T.: Rapid climatic driven shifts of diatoms at high latitudes, Remote Sens. Environ., 132, 195–201, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2013.01.014, 2013.
Antoine, D., Morel, A., Gordon, H. R., Banzon, V. F., and Evans, R. H.: Bridging ocean color observations of the 1980s and 2000s in search of long-term trends, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C06009, https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JC002620, 2005.
Aumont, O. and Bopp, L.: Globalizing results from ocean in situ iron fertilization studies, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, 1–15, https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GB002591, 2006.
Behrenfeld, M. J.: Abandoning Sverdrup's Critical Depth Hypothesis on phytoplankton blooms., Ecology, 91, 977–89, 2010.
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Short summary
We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
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