Articles | Volume 12, issue 23
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, 2015
Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, 2015

Research article 07 Dec 2015

Research article | 07 Dec 2015

Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

C. Laufkötter et al.

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Cited articles

Allen, M. R. and Ingram, W. J.: Constraints on future changes in climate and the hydrologic cycle., Nature, 419, 224–32,, 2002.
Alvain, S., Le Quéré, C., Bopp, L., Racault, M.-F., Beaugrand, G., Dessailly, D., and Buitenhuis, E. T.: Rapid climatic driven shifts of diatoms at high latitudes, Remote Sens. Environ., 132, 195–201,, 2013.
Antoine, D., Morel, A., Gordon, H. R., Banzon, V. F., and Evans, R. H.: Bridging ocean color observations of the 1980s and 2000s in search of long-term trends, J. Geophys. Res., 110, C06009,, 2005.
Aumont, O. and Bopp, L.: Globalizing results from ocean in situ iron fertilization studies, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 20, 1–15,, 2006.
Behrenfeld, M. J.: Abandoning Sverdrup's Critical Depth Hypothesis on phytoplankton blooms., Ecology, 91, 977–89, 2010.
Short summary
We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
Final-revised paper