Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

Laufkötter, C.; Vogt, M.; Gruber, N.; Aita-Noguchi, M.; Aumont, O.; Bopp, L.; Buitenhuis, E.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J.; Hashioka, T.; Hauck, J.; Hirata, T.; John, J.; Le Quéré, C.; Lima, I. D.; Nakano, H.; Seferian, R.; Totterdell, I.; Vichi, M.; Völker, C.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015

Articles | Volume 12, issue 23

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 23

Research article

|

07 Dec 2015

Research article |

| 07 Dec 2015

Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, N. Gruber, M. Aita-Noguchi, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, S. C. Doney, J. Dunne, T. Hashioka, J. Hauck, T. Hirata, J. John, C. Le Quéré, I. D. Lima, H. Nakano, R. Seferian, I. Totterdell, M. Vichi, and C. Völker

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Final revised paper (published on 07 Dec 2015)
Preprint (discussion started on 27 Feb 2015)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC C872: 'Referee Comments on 'bg-2014-637' Laufkötter et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 Mar 2015
- AC C4855: 'Response to Reviewer #1', Charlotte Laufkoetter, 31 Aug 2015
  - AC C4866: 'Revised Manuscript attached', Charlotte Laufkoetter, 31 Aug 2015
SC C1080: 'Comparison to earlier findings', Anna Cabre, 07 Apr 2015
- AC C4864: 'Response to short comment', Charlotte Laufkoetter, 31 Aug 2015
RC C2471: 'Review: Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 May 2015
- AC C4859: 'Response to Reviewer #2', Charlotte Laufkoetter, 31 Aug 2015

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (24 Sep 2015) by Caroline P. Slomp

AR by Charlotte Laufkötter on behalf of the Authors (24 Sep 2015) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (05 Oct 2015) by Caroline P. Slomp

ED: Publish as is (22 Oct 2015) by Caroline P. Slomp

AR by Charlotte Laufkötter on behalf of the Authors (23 Oct 2015)

Short summary

We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.