Articles | Volume 12, issue 23
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015
Research article
 | 
07 Dec 2015
Research article |  | 07 Dec 2015

Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

C. Laufkötter, M. Vogt, N. Gruber, M. Aita-Noguchi, O. Aumont, L. Bopp, E. Buitenhuis, S. C. Doney, J. Dunne, T. Hashioka, J. Hauck, T. Hirata, J. John, C. Le Quéré, I. D. Lima, H. Nakano, R. Seferian, I. Totterdell, M. Vichi, and C. Völker

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AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision
ED: Reconsider after major revisions (24 Sep 2015) by Caroline P. Slomp
AR by Charlotte Laufkötter on behalf of the Authors (24 Sep 2015)  Author's response   Manuscript 
ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (05 Oct 2015) by Caroline P. Slomp
ED: Publish as is (22 Oct 2015) by Caroline P. Slomp
AR by Charlotte Laufkötter on behalf of the Authors (23 Oct 2015)
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Short summary
We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.
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