Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

Laufkötter, C.; Vogt, M.; Gruber, N.; Aita-Noguchi, M.; Aumont, O.; Bopp, L.; Buitenhuis, E.; Doney, S. C.; Dunne, J.; Hashioka, T.; Hauck, J.; Hirata, T.; John, J.; Le Quéré, C.; Lima, I. D.; Nakano, H.; Seferian, R.; Totterdell, I.; Vichi, M.; Völker, C.

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015

Articles | Volume 12, issue 23

Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, 2015

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Biogeosciences, 12, 6955–6984, 2015

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-6955-2015

© Author(s) 2015. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Articles | Volume 12, issue 23

Research article 07 Dec 2015

Research article | 07 Dec 2015

Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models

C. Laufkötter et al.

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Final revised paper (published on 07 Dec 2015)
Preprint (discussion started on 27 Feb 2015)

Interactive discussion

Status: closed

AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment

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- Supplement

RC C872: 'Referee Comments on 'bg-2014-637' Laufkötter et al.', Anonymous Referee #1, 27 Mar 2015
- AC C4855: 'Response to Reviewer #1', Charlotte Laufkoetter, 31 Aug 2015
  - AC C4866: 'Revised Manuscript attached', Charlotte Laufkoetter, 31 Aug 2015
SC C1080: 'Comparison to earlier findings', Anna Cabre, 07 Apr 2015
- AC C4864: 'Response to short comment', Charlotte Laufkoetter, 31 Aug 2015
RC C2471: 'Review: Drivers and uncertainties of future global marine primary production in marine ecosystem models', Anonymous Referee #2, 28 May 2015
- AC C4859: 'Response to Reviewer #2', Charlotte Laufkoetter, 31 Aug 2015

Peer-review completion

AR: Author's response | RR: Referee report | ED: Editor decision

ED: Reconsider after major revisions (24 Sep 2015) by Caroline P. Slomp

AR by Charlotte Laufkoetter on behalf of the Authors (24 Sep 2015) Author's response Manuscript

ED: Referee Nomination & Report Request started (05 Oct 2015) by Caroline P. Slomp

ED: Publish as is (22 Oct 2015) by Caroline P. Slomp

Short summary

We analyze changes in marine net primary production (NPP) and its drivers for the 21st century in 9 marine ecosystem models under the RCP8.5 scenario. NPP decreases in 5 models and increases in 1 model; 3 models show no significant trend. The main drivers include stronger nutrient limitation, but in many models warming-induced increases in phytoplankton growth outbalance the nutrient effect. Temperature-driven increases in grazing and other loss processes cause a net decrease in biomass and NPP.