Articles | Volume 15, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2909-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Special issue:
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2909-2018
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions
Sebastian Lienert
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Fortunat Joos
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
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Cited
96 citations as recorded by crossref.
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- Global CH4 fluxes derived from JAXA/GOSAT lower-tropospheric partial column data and the CarbonTracker Europe-CH4 atmospheric inverse model A. Tsuruta et al.
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- High-resolution LGM climate of Europe and the Alpine region using the regional climate model WRF E. Russo et al.
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- Recent trends in gross primary production and their drivers: analysis and modelling at flux-site and global scales W. Cai & I. Prentice
- Global peatland area and carbon dynamics from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present – a process-based model investigation J. Müller & F. Joos
- Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand? A. Paschalis et al.
- Using Atmospheric Inverse Modelling of Methane Budgets with Copernicus Land Water and Wetness Data to Detect Land Use-Related Emissions M. Tenkanen et al.
- Global soil respiration estimation based on ecological big data and machine learning model J. Liu et al.
- Improved Constraints on the Recent Terrestrial Carbon Sink Over China by Assimilating OCO‐2 XCO2 Retrievals W. He et al.
- Environmental drivers constraining the seasonal variability in satellite-observed and modelled methane at northern high latitudes E. Kivimäki et al.
- A Robust Estimate of Continental‐Scale Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Using GOSAT XCO2 Retrievals L. Zhang et al.
- Global Carbon Budget 2024 P. Friedlingstein et al.
- Modeling the evolution of pulse-like perturbations in atmospheric carbon and carbon isotopes: the role of weathering–sedimentation imbalances A. Jeltsch-Thömmes & F. Joos
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- Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands – continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum J. Müller & F. Joos
- Carbon dioxide fertilization enhanced carbon sink offset by climate change and land use in Amazonia on a centennial scale B. Chen et al.
- Underestimated Interannual Variability of Terrestrial Vegetation Production by Terrestrial Ecosystem Models S. Lin et al.
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- Ocean acidification in emission-driven temperature stabilization scenarios: the role of TCRE and non-CO2 greenhouse gases J. Terhaar et al.
- Satellite-Observed Greening of Human-Dominated Ecosystems in Global Dryland Y. Li et al.
- Are Terrestrial Biosphere Models Fit for Simulating the Global Land Carbon Sink? C. Seiler et al.
- Improved estimates of net ecosystem exchanges in mega-countries using GOSAT and OCO-2 observations L. Zhang et al.
- Global Carbon Budget 2022 P. Friedlingstein et al.
- The change pattern and spatiotemporal transition of land use carbon emissions in China's Three-North Shelterbelt Program Region L. Yang et al.
- Probabilistic Assessment of the Impact of Compound Dry and Hot Events on Vegetation Drought Over Northwestern China J. Lu et al.
- A climate database with varying drought‐heat signatures for climate impact modelling E. Tschumi et al.
- Impacts of extreme summers on European ecosystems: a comparative analysis of 2003, 2010 and 2018 A. Bastos et al.
- Terrestrial carbon cycle model-data fusion: Progress and challenges X. Li et al.
- Large Variability in Simulated Response of Vegetation Composition and Carbon Dynamics to Variations in Drought‐Heat Occurrence E. Tschumi et al.
- Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, influencing factors of land use carbon emissions, and low-carbon development in Hubei Province, China M. Fan et al.
- Mapping the safe operating space of marine ecosystems under contrasting emission pathways T. Bourgeois et al.
- N2O changes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the preindustrial – Part 2: terrestrial N2O emissions and carbon–nitrogen cycle interactions F. Joos et al.
- Is soil contamination a missing driver of soil heterotrophic respiration in land surface models? A study case with copper – L. Sereni et al.
- Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO2 Exchange Estimates A. Bastos et al.
- Global spatially explicit carbon emissions from land-use change over the past six decades (1961–2020) Z. Qin et al.
- Global Carbon Budget 2023 P. Friedlingstein et al.
- Land Use Effects on Climate: Current State, Recent Progress, and Emerging Topics J. Pongratz et al.
- Comparing machine learning-derived global estimates of soil respiration and its components with those from terrestrial ecosystem models H. Lu et al.
- Greening of human-dominated ecosystems in India T. Park et al.
- Global Carbon Budget 2020 P. Friedlingstein et al.
- Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target J. Terhaar et al.
- Global Carbon Budget 2019 P. Friedlingstein et al.
- Utilizing Earth Observations of Soil Freeze/Thaw Data and Atmospheric Concentrations to Estimate Cold Season Methane Emissions in the Northern High Latitudes M. Tenkanen et al.
- A unifying principle for global greenness patterns and trends W. Cai et al.
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- Global Surface Ocean Acidification Indicators From 1750 to 2100 L. Jiang et al.
96 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making M. Rounsevell et al.
- Country-level estimates of gross and net carbon fluxes from land use, land-use change and forestry W. Obermeier et al.
- Dryland dominance in the slowdown of global vegetation carbon uptake F. Li et al.
- Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches W. Obermeier et al.
- Regional and seasonal partitioning of water and temperature controls on global land carbon uptake variability K. Wang et al.
- Interactive effects of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole on the tropical net ecosystem productivity R. Yan et al.
- Global CH4 fluxes derived from JAXA/GOSAT lower-tropospheric partial column data and the CarbonTracker Europe-CH4 atmospheric inverse model A. Tsuruta et al.
- Global human-made mass exceeds all living biomass E. Elhacham et al.
- Multiscale assessment of North American terrestrial carbon balance K. Foster et al.
- Vulnerability of European ecosystems to two compound dry and hot summers in 2018 and 2019 A. Bastos et al.
- Solar‐Induced Fluorescence Helps Constrain Global Patterns in Net Biosphere Exchange, as Estimated Using Atmospheric CO2 Observations M. Zhang et al.
- High-resolution LGM climate of Europe and the Alpine region using the regional climate model WRF E. Russo et al.
- Changes in the relationship between climate variables and vegetation carbon uptake in East Asia M. Shin et al.
- Recent trends in gross primary production and their drivers: analysis and modelling at flux-site and global scales W. Cai & I. Prentice
- Global peatland area and carbon dynamics from the Last Glacial Maximum to the present – a process-based model investigation J. Müller & F. Joos
- Rainfall manipulation experiments as simulated by terrestrial biosphere models: Where do we stand? A. Paschalis et al.
- Using Atmospheric Inverse Modelling of Methane Budgets with Copernicus Land Water and Wetness Data to Detect Land Use-Related Emissions M. Tenkanen et al.
- Global soil respiration estimation based on ecological big data and machine learning model J. Liu et al.
- Improved Constraints on the Recent Terrestrial Carbon Sink Over China by Assimilating OCO‐2 XCO2 Retrievals W. He et al.
- Environmental drivers constraining the seasonal variability in satellite-observed and modelled methane at northern high latitudes E. Kivimäki et al.
- A Robust Estimate of Continental‐Scale Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Using GOSAT XCO2 Retrievals L. Zhang et al.
- Global Carbon Budget 2024 P. Friedlingstein et al.
- Modeling the evolution of pulse-like perturbations in atmospheric carbon and carbon isotopes: the role of weathering–sedimentation imbalances A. Jeltsch-Thömmes & F. Joos
- The effects of varying drought-heat signatures on terrestrial carbon dynamics and vegetation composition E. Tschumi et al.
- Investigating the response of leaf area index to droughts in southern African vegetation using observations and model simulations S. Lawal et al.
- The Role of Emission Sources and Atmospheric Sink in the Seasonal Cycle of CH4 and δ13-CH4: Analysis Based on the Atmospheric Chemistry Transport Model TM5 V. Kangasaho et al.
- Enhanced India‐Africa Carbon Uptake and Asia‐Pacific Carbon Release Associated With the 2019 Extreme Positive Indian Ocean Dipole J. Wang et al.
- Environmental and Seasonal Variability of High Latitude Methane Emissions Based on Earth Observation Data and Atmospheric Inverse Modelling A. Erkkilä et al.
- The benefits and trade-offs of multi-variable calibration of the WaterGAP global hydrological model (WGHM) in the Ganges and Brahmaputra basins H. Hasan et al.
- Partitioning anthropogenic and natural methane emissions in Finland during 2000–2021 by combining bottom-up and top-down estimates M. Tenkanen et al.
- Uncertainties in carbon emissions from land use and land cover change in Indonesia I. Brasika et al.
- Understanding the Land Carbon Cycle with Space Data: Current Status and Prospects J. Exbrayat et al.
- Soil respiration–driven CO 2 pulses dominate Australia’s flux variability E. Metz et al.
- Global Carbon Budget 2018 C. Le Quéré et al.
- Three decades of simulated global terrestrial carbon fluxes from a data assimilation system confronted with different periods of observations K. Castro-Morales et al.
- Harmonizing direct and indirect anthropogenic land carbon fluxes indicates a substantial missing sink in the global carbon budget since the early 20th century A. Walker et al.
- Partitioning Climatic Controls on Global Land Carbon Sink Variability: Temperature vs. Moisture Constraints Across Biomes X. Luo et al.
- Committed and projected future changes in global peatlands – continued transient model simulations since the Last Glacial Maximum J. Müller & F. Joos
- Carbon dioxide fertilization enhanced carbon sink offset by climate change and land use in Amazonia on a centennial scale B. Chen et al.
- Underestimated Interannual Variability of Terrestrial Vegetation Production by Terrestrial Ecosystem Models S. Lin et al.
- No increase is detected and modeled for the seasonal cycle amplitude of δ13C of atmospheric carbon dioxide F. Joos et al.
- Multi-spatial scale assessment and multi-dataset fusion of global terrestrial evapotranspiration datasets Y. Wu et al.
- Global nitrous oxide budget (1980–2020) H. Tian et al.
- Spatial-Temporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions from Land Use and Land Cover in Black Soil Region of Northeast China Based on LMDI Simulation L. Chen et al.
- Evaluating nitrogen cycling in terrestrial biosphere models: a disconnect between the carbon and nitrogen cycles S. Kou-Giesbrecht et al.
- Climate impact on mean annual cycle and interannual variability of CO2 fluxes in European deciduous broadleaf and evergreen needleleaf forests: insights from observations and state-of-the-art data-driven and process-based models A. Ullah et al.
- Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe T. Aalto et al.
- Seasonal and interannual variability in CO2 fluxes in southern Africa seen by GOSAT E. Metz et al.
- Differences and uncertainties in land-use CO2 flux estimates W. Obermeier et al.
- Pronounced inter-model uncertainties in TRENDY-simulated terrestrial carbon sink responses to hydroclimatic extremes Z. Wang et al.
- The influence of varying atmospheric CO2 on global warming potentials and carbon emission impulse response functions A. Jeltsch-Thömmes et al.
- First global carbon dynamics from an observational and process-informed hybrid perspective: Oversimplified respiration representation likely drives divergence in terrestrial carbon sequestration across models S. Zhu et al.
- Global soil nitrous oxide emissions since the preindustrial era estimated by an ensemble of terrestrial biosphere models: Magnitude, attribution, and uncertainty H. Tian et al.
- Global Carbon Budget 2021 P. Friedlingstein et al.
- Uncertainty and Emergent Constraints on Enhanced Ecosystem Carbon Stock by Land Greening C. Bian et al.
- Earth system responses to carbon dioxide removal as exemplified by ocean alkalinity enhancement: tradeoffs and lags A. Jeltsch-Thömmes et al.
- Widespread consistent but rapid response of terrestrial ecosystem photosynthesis and respiratory to drought W. Guo et al.
- Effect of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Context of Growth Enhancements in the United States Since 1700: Net Source or Sink? B. Felzer & M. Jiang
- Best practices in software development for robust and reproducible geoscientific models based on insights from the Global Carbon Budget's dynamic vegetation models K. Gregor et al.
- Fine-Scale Improved Carbon Bookkeeping Model Using Landsat Time Series for Subtropical Forest, Southern China X. Wang et al.
- Is there warming in the pipeline? A multi-model analysis of the Zero Emissions Commitment from CO2 A. MacDougall et al.
- European anthropogenic AFOLU greenhouse gas emissions: a review and benchmark data A. Petrescu et al.
- Hysteresis of the Earth system under positive and negative CO2 emissions A. Jeltsch-Thömmes et al.
- Importance of the memory effect for assessing interannual variation in net ecosystem exchange W. Liu et al.
- Predicting years with extremely low gross primary production from daily weather data using Convolutional Neural Networks A. Marcolongo et al.
- CH4 Fluxes Derived from Assimilation of TROPOMI XCH4 in CarbonTracker Europe-CH4: Evaluation of Seasonality and Spatial Distribution in the Northern High Latitudes A. Tsuruta et al.
- Direct and seasonal legacy effects of the 2018 heat wave and drought on European ecosystem productivity A. Bastos et al.
- Warm and wet spring compensated for the reduction in carbon sinks due to an extreme summer heatwave-drought event in 2022 in southern China Y. Zhang et al.
- Ocean acidification in emission-driven temperature stabilization scenarios: the role of TCRE and non-CO2 greenhouse gases J. Terhaar et al.
- Satellite-Observed Greening of Human-Dominated Ecosystems in Global Dryland Y. Li et al.
- Are Terrestrial Biosphere Models Fit for Simulating the Global Land Carbon Sink? C. Seiler et al.
- Improved estimates of net ecosystem exchanges in mega-countries using GOSAT and OCO-2 observations L. Zhang et al.
- Global Carbon Budget 2022 P. Friedlingstein et al.
- The change pattern and spatiotemporal transition of land use carbon emissions in China's Three-North Shelterbelt Program Region L. Yang et al.
- Probabilistic Assessment of the Impact of Compound Dry and Hot Events on Vegetation Drought Over Northwestern China J. Lu et al.
- A climate database with varying drought‐heat signatures for climate impact modelling E. Tschumi et al.
- Impacts of extreme summers on European ecosystems: a comparative analysis of 2003, 2010 and 2018 A. Bastos et al.
- Terrestrial carbon cycle model-data fusion: Progress and challenges X. Li et al.
- Large Variability in Simulated Response of Vegetation Composition and Carbon Dynamics to Variations in Drought‐Heat Occurrence E. Tschumi et al.
- Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics, influencing factors of land use carbon emissions, and low-carbon development in Hubei Province, China M. Fan et al.
- Mapping the safe operating space of marine ecosystems under contrasting emission pathways T. Bourgeois et al.
- N2O changes from the Last Glacial Maximum to the preindustrial – Part 2: terrestrial N2O emissions and carbon–nitrogen cycle interactions F. Joos et al.
- Is soil contamination a missing driver of soil heterotrophic respiration in land surface models? A study case with copper – L. Sereni et al.
- Sources of Uncertainty in Regional and Global Terrestrial CO2 Exchange Estimates A. Bastos et al.
- Global spatially explicit carbon emissions from land-use change over the past six decades (1961–2020) Z. Qin et al.
- Global Carbon Budget 2023 P. Friedlingstein et al.
- Land Use Effects on Climate: Current State, Recent Progress, and Emerging Topics J. Pongratz et al.
- Comparing machine learning-derived global estimates of soil respiration and its components with those from terrestrial ecosystem models H. Lu et al.
- Greening of human-dominated ecosystems in India T. Park et al.
- Global Carbon Budget 2020 P. Friedlingstein et al.
- Adaptive emission reduction approach to reach any global warming target J. Terhaar et al.
- Global Carbon Budget 2019 P. Friedlingstein et al.
- Utilizing Earth Observations of Soil Freeze/Thaw Data and Atmospheric Concentrations to Estimate Cold Season Methane Emissions in the Northern High Latitudes M. Tenkanen et al.
- A unifying principle for global greenness patterns and trends W. Cai et al.
- Global meta-analysis of bioenergy crops reveals substantial greenhouse gas mitigation potential Z. Yu et al.
- Global Surface Ocean Acidification Indicators From 1750 to 2100 L. Jiang et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 04 May 2026
Short summary
Deforestation, shifting cultivation and wood harvesting cause large carbon emissions, altering climate. We apply a dynamic global vegetation model in a probabilistic framework. Diverse observations are assimilated to establish an optimally performing model and a large ensemble of model versions. Land-use carbon emissions are reported for individual countries, regions and the world. We find that parameter-related uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude as process-related effects.
Deforestation, shifting cultivation and wood harvesting cause large carbon emissions, altering...
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