Articles | Volume 15, issue 9
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2909-2018
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-15-2909-2018
Research article
 | 
16 May 2018
Research article |  | 16 May 2018

A Bayesian ensemble data assimilation to constrain model parameters and land-use carbon emissions

Sebastian Lienert and Fortunat Joos

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Cited articles

Andres, R. J., Boden, T. A., Bréon, F.-M., Ciais, P., Davis, S., Erickson, D., Gregg, J. S., Jacobson, A., Marland, G., Miller, J., Oda, T., Olivier, J. G. J., Raupach, M. R., Rayner, P., and Treanton, K.: A synthesis of carbon dioxide emissions from fossil-fuel combustion, Biogeosciences, 9, 1845–1871, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-9-1845-2012, 2012.
Ballantyne, A. P., Andres, R., Houghton, R., Stocker, B. D., Wanninkhof, R., Anderegg, W., Cooper, L. A., DeGrandpre, M., Tans, P. P., Miller, J. B., Alden, C., and White, J. W. C.: Audit of the global carbon budget: estimate errors and their impact on uptake uncertainty, Biogeosciences, 12, 2565–2584, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-2565-2015, 2015.
Battaglia, G. and Joos, F.: Marine N2O Emissions From Nitrification and Denitrification Constrained by Modern Observations and Projected in Multimillennial Global Warming Simulations, Global Biogeochem. Cy., 32, 92–121, https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GB005671, 2018.
Battaglia, G., Steinacher, M., and Joos, F.: A probabilistic assessment of calcium carbonate export and dissolution in the modern ocean, Biogeosciences, 13, 2823–2848, https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-13-2823-2016, 2016.
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Short summary
Deforestation, shifting cultivation and wood harvesting cause large carbon emissions, altering climate. We apply a dynamic global vegetation model in a probabilistic framework. Diverse observations are assimilated to establish an optimally performing model and a large ensemble of model versions. Land-use carbon emissions are reported for individual countries, regions and the world. We find that parameter-related uncertainties are on the same order of magnitude as process-related effects.
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