Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Biogeosciences, 16, 1211–1224, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019
Biogeosciences, 16, 1211–1224, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019

Research article 22 Mar 2019

Research article | 22 Mar 2019

Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia – a genetic and simulation-based study

Stefan Kruse et al.

Model code and software

Microsatellite binning and processing for population genetic analyses in R S. Kruse, L. S. Epp, M. Wieczorek, L. A. Pestryakova, K. R. Stoof-Leichsenring, and U. Herzschuh https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.885765

LAVESI-WIND v1.0 source code S. Kruse, A. Gerdes, N. J. Kath, and M. Wieczorek https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1165383

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Short summary
How fast might the arctic treeline in northern central Siberia migrate northwards under current global warming? To answer this, we newly parameterized dispersal processes in the individual-based and spatially explicit model LAVESI-WIND based on parentage analysis. Simulation results show that northernmost open forest stands are migrating at an unexpectedly slow rate into tundra. We conclude that the treeline currently lags behind the strong warming and will remain slow in the upcoming decades.
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