Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia – a genetic and simulation-based study

Kruse, Stefan; Gerdes, Alexander; Kath, Nadja J.; Epp, Laura S.; Stoof-Leichsenring, Kathleen R.; Pestryakova, Luidmila A.; Herzschuh, Ulrike

doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019

Articles | Volume 16, issue 6

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019

© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Articles | Volume 16, issue 6

Research article

|

22 Mar 2019

Research article |

| 22 Mar 2019

Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia – a genetic and simulation-based study

Stefan Kruse, Alexander Gerdes, Nadja J. Kath, Laura S. Epp, Kathleen R. Stoof-Leichsenring, Luidmila A. Pestryakova, and Ulrike Herzschuh

Supplement

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019-supplement

Model code and software

Microsatellite binning and processing for population genetic analyses in R S. Kruse, L. S. Epp, M. Wieczorek, L. A. Pestryakova, K. R. Stoof-Leichsenring, and U. Herzschuh https://doi.pangaea.de/10.1594/PANGAEA.885765

LAVESI-WIND v1.0 source code S. Kruse, A. Gerdes, N. J. Kath, and M. Wieczorek https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1165383

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Short summary

How fast might the arctic treeline in northern central Siberia migrate northwards under current global warming? To answer this, we newly parameterized dispersal processes in the individual-based and spatially explicit model LAVESI-WIND based on parentage analysis. Simulation results show that northernmost open forest stands are migrating at an unexpectedly slow rate into tundra. We conclude that the treeline currently lags behind the strong warming and will remain slow in the upcoming decades.