Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
Biogeosciences, 16, 1211–1224, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019
Biogeosciences, 16, 1211–1224, 2019
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019

Research article 22 Mar 2019

Research article | 22 Mar 2019

Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia – a genetic and simulation-based study

Stefan Kruse et al.

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Cited articles

Andreev, A. A., Siegert, C., Klimanov, V. A., Derevyagin, A. Y., Shilova, G. N., and Melles, M.: Late Pleistocene and Holocene Vegetation and Climate on the Taymyr Lowland, Northern Siberia, Quaternary Res., 57, 138–150, https://doi.org/10.1006/qres.2001.2302, 2002. 
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How fast might the arctic treeline in northern central Siberia migrate northwards under current global warming? To answer this, we newly parameterized dispersal processes in the individual-based and spatially explicit model LAVESI-WIND based on parentage analysis. Simulation results show that northernmost open forest stands are migrating at an unexpectedly slow rate into tundra. We conclude that the treeline currently lags behind the strong warming and will remain slow in the upcoming decades.
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