Articles | Volume 16, issue 6
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-16-1211-2019
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
22 Mar 2019
Research article |
| 22 Mar 2019
| 22 Mar 2019
Dispersal distances and migration rates at the arctic treeline in Siberia – a genetic and simulation-based study
Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems Research Group, Alfred Wegener
Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, 14473 Potsdam,
Germany
Institute of Biology and Biochemistry, University of Potsdam, 14476
Potsdam, Germany
Alexander Gerdes
Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems Research Group, Alfred Wegener
Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, 14473 Potsdam,
Germany
Nadja J. Kath
Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems Research Group, Alfred Wegener
Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, 14473 Potsdam,
Germany
Institute of Biology and Biochemistry, University of Potsdam, 14476
Potsdam, Germany
Laura S. Epp
Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems Research Group, Alfred Wegener
Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, 14473 Potsdam,
Germany
Kathleen R. Stoof-Leichsenring
Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems Research Group, Alfred Wegener
Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, 14473 Potsdam,
Germany
Luidmila A. Pestryakova
Institute of Natural Sciences, North-Eastern Federal
University of Yakutsk, 677000 Yakutsk, Russia
Ulrike Herzschuh
Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems Research Group, Alfred Wegener
Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, 14473 Potsdam,
Germany
Institute of Biology and Biochemistry, University of Potsdam, 14476
Potsdam, Germany
Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam,
14476 Potsdam, Germany
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Cited
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Arctic tundra ecosystems under fire—Alternative ecosystem states in a changing climate? R. Heim et al.
- Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years S. Kruse & U. Herzschuh
- Long‐lived larch clones may conserve adaptations that could restrict treeline migration in northern Siberia S. Kruse et al.
- Unraveling boreal forest composition and drivers across scales in eastern Siberia L. Enguehard et al.
- New Mitochondrial DNA Markers for Studying the Population Structure of Siberian and European Spruce V. Semerikov
- Seed production and dispersal limit treeline advance in the Pyrenees A. Anadon‐Rosell et al.
- Tundra conservation challenged by forest expansion in a complex mountainous treeline ecotone as revealed by spatially explicit tree aboveground biomass modeling S. Kruse et al.
- Alpine treeline greening outpaces lower elevations under warming climate across the Changbai Mountains: evidence from near-daily seamless data cubes at 30 m resolution Z. Xu et al.
- State of island spruce forests in the Western part of the Bolshezemelskaya tundra after 23 years O. Lavrinenko et al.
- Fluvial carbon dioxide emission from the Lena River basin during the spring flood S. Vorobyev et al.
- Simulating long-term wildfire impacts on boreal forest structure in Central Yakutia, Siberia, since the Last Glacial Maximum R. Glückler et al.
- Leading directions and effective distance of larch offspring dispersal at the upper treeline in the Northern and Polar Urals, Russia P. Moiseev et al.
- Evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in Siberia J. Gloy et al.
- Legacy of the Last Glacial on the present‐day distribution of deciduous versus evergreen boreal forests U. Herzschuh & G. Jordan
- Leading‐edge disequilibrium in alder and spruce populations across the forest–tundra ecotone H. Travers‐Smith & T. Lantz
- Strong shrub expansion in tundra-taiga, tree infilling in taiga and stable tundra in central Chukotka (north-eastern Siberia) between 2000 and 2017 I. Shevtsova et al.
- Novel coupled permafrost–forest model (LAVESI–CryoGrid v1.0) revealing the interplay between permafrost, vegetation, and climate across eastern Siberia S. Kruse et al.
- Arctic sea ice retreat fuels boreal forest advance R. Dial et al.
- Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic E. Schuur et al.
- Advances in the Derivation of Northeast Siberian Forest Metrics Using High-Resolution UAV-Based Photogrammetric Point Clouds F. Brieger et al.
- Biogeography of larches in eastern Siberia – using single nucleotide polymorphisms derived by genotyping by sequencing S. Haupt et al.
- Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw M. Turetsky et al.
- The bioclimatic extent and pattern of the cold edge of the boreal forest: the circumpolar taiga-tundra ecotone P. Montesano et al.
- Simulating dynamic fire regime and vegetation change in a warming Siberia N. Williams et al.
- Sufficient conditions for rapid range expansion of a boreal conifer R. Dial et al.
25 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Arctic tundra ecosystems under fire—Alternative ecosystem states in a changing climate? R. Heim et al.
- Regional opportunities for tundra conservation in the next 1000 years S. Kruse & U. Herzschuh
- Long‐lived larch clones may conserve adaptations that could restrict treeline migration in northern Siberia S. Kruse et al.
- Unraveling boreal forest composition and drivers across scales in eastern Siberia L. Enguehard et al.
- New Mitochondrial DNA Markers for Studying the Population Structure of Siberian and European Spruce V. Semerikov
- Seed production and dispersal limit treeline advance in the Pyrenees A. Anadon‐Rosell et al.
- Tundra conservation challenged by forest expansion in a complex mountainous treeline ecotone as revealed by spatially explicit tree aboveground biomass modeling S. Kruse et al.
- Alpine treeline greening outpaces lower elevations under warming climate across the Changbai Mountains: evidence from near-daily seamless data cubes at 30 m resolution Z. Xu et al.
- State of island spruce forests in the Western part of the Bolshezemelskaya tundra after 23 years O. Lavrinenko et al.
- Fluvial carbon dioxide emission from the Lena River basin during the spring flood S. Vorobyev et al.
- Simulating long-term wildfire impacts on boreal forest structure in Central Yakutia, Siberia, since the Last Glacial Maximum R. Glückler et al.
- Leading directions and effective distance of larch offspring dispersal at the upper treeline in the Northern and Polar Urals, Russia P. Moiseev et al.
- Evolutionary adaptation of trees and modelled future larch forest extent in Siberia J. Gloy et al.
- Legacy of the Last Glacial on the present‐day distribution of deciduous versus evergreen boreal forests U. Herzschuh & G. Jordan
- Leading‐edge disequilibrium in alder and spruce populations across the forest–tundra ecotone H. Travers‐Smith & T. Lantz
- Strong shrub expansion in tundra-taiga, tree infilling in taiga and stable tundra in central Chukotka (north-eastern Siberia) between 2000 and 2017 I. Shevtsova et al.
- Novel coupled permafrost–forest model (LAVESI–CryoGrid v1.0) revealing the interplay between permafrost, vegetation, and climate across eastern Siberia S. Kruse et al.
- Arctic sea ice retreat fuels boreal forest advance R. Dial et al.
- Permafrost and Climate Change: Carbon Cycle Feedbacks From the Warming Arctic E. Schuur et al.
- Advances in the Derivation of Northeast Siberian Forest Metrics Using High-Resolution UAV-Based Photogrammetric Point Clouds F. Brieger et al.
- Biogeography of larches in eastern Siberia – using single nucleotide polymorphisms derived by genotyping by sequencing S. Haupt et al.
- Carbon release through abrupt permafrost thaw M. Turetsky et al.
- The bioclimatic extent and pattern of the cold edge of the boreal forest: the circumpolar taiga-tundra ecotone P. Montesano et al.
- Simulating dynamic fire regime and vegetation change in a warming Siberia N. Williams et al.
- Sufficient conditions for rapid range expansion of a boreal conifer R. Dial et al.
Saved (final revised paper)
Latest update: 04 May 2026
Short summary
How fast might the arctic treeline in northern central Siberia migrate northwards under current global warming? To answer this, we newly parameterized dispersal processes in the individual-based and spatially explicit model LAVESI-WIND based on parentage analysis. Simulation results show that northernmost open forest stands are migrating at an unexpectedly slow rate into tundra. We conclude that the treeline currently lags behind the strong warming and will remain slow in the upcoming decades.
How fast might the arctic treeline in northern central Siberia migrate northwards under current...
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