Articles | Volume 17, issue 7
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-17-2061-2020
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Research article
| 
16 Apr 2020
Research article |
| 16 Apr 2020
| 16 Apr 2020
Potential predictability of marine ecosystem drivers
Thomas L. Frölicher
CORRESPONDING AUTHOR
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of
Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
Luca Ramseyer
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of
Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
Christoph C. Raible
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute, University of
Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, Bern, 3012, Switzerland
Keith B. Rodgers
Center for Climate Physics, Institute for Basic Science, Busan, South Korea
Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea
John Dunne
NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, NJ, USA
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Cited
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Drivers of Surface Ocean Acidity Extremes in an Earth System Model F. Burger & T. Frölicher 10.1029/2023GB007785
- Attribution and Predictability of Climate‐Driven Variability in Global Ocean Color H. Lim et al. 10.1029/2022JC019121
- Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance F. Fransner et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9
- Potential Predictability of the Spring Bloom in the Southern Ocean Sea Ice Zone B. Buchovecky et al. 10.1029/2023GL105139
- Investigating Predictability of DIC and SST in the Argentine Basin Through Wind Stress Perturbation Experiments S. Swierczek et al. 10.1029/2021GL095504
- Mechanisms driving ESM-based marine ecosystem predictive skill on the east African coast W. Jeon et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d63
- Key climate change stressors of marine ecosystems along the path of the East African coastal current Z. Jacobs et al. 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105627
- Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions T. O'Kane et al. 10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626
- Integrating human dimensions in decadal-scale prediction for marine social–ecological systems: lighting the grey zone J. Melbourne-Thomas et al. 10.1093/icesjms/fsac228
- Skillful multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts jointly constrained by ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen Z. Chen et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-45016-5
- NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP I. Bethke et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021
- Exploring the Potential of Forecasting Fish Distributions in the North East Atlantic With a Dynamic Earth System Model, Exemplified by the Suitable Spawning Habitat of Blue Whiting A. Miesner et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.777427
- Marine high temperature extremes amplify the impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries W. Cheung et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abh0895
- Ecophysiology of the kleptoplastidic dinoflagellate Shimiella gracilenta: II. Effects of temperature and global warming J. Ok et al. 10.4490/algae.2022.37.3.2
- Skillful Multi‐Month Predictions of Ecosystem Stressors in the Surface and Subsurface Ocean S. Mogen et al. 10.1029/2023EF003605
- Editorial: Impact of climate change on coastal environmental variability and aquatic physiology F. Giomi et al. 10.3389/fphys.2023.1305645
- Predictable Variations of the Carbon Sinks and Atmospheric CO2Growth in a Multi‐Model Framework T. Ilyina et al. 10.1029/2020GL090695
- Eco-evolutionary responses of the microbial loop to surface ocean warming and consequences for primary production P. Cherabier & R. Ferrière 10.1038/s41396-021-01166-8
- Can Environmental Conditions at North Atlantic Deep-Sea Habitats Be Predicted Several Years Ahead? ——Taking Sponge Habitats as an Example F. Liu et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.703297
- Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts M. Payne et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-30280-0
- Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> F. Burger et al. 10.5194/bg-17-4633-2020
21 citations as recorded by crossref.
- Drivers of Surface Ocean Acidity Extremes in an Earth System Model F. Burger & T. Frölicher 10.1029/2023GB007785
- Attribution and Predictability of Climate‐Driven Variability in Global Ocean Color H. Lim et al. 10.1029/2022JC019121
- Phytoplankton abundance in the Barents Sea is predictable up to five years in advance F. Fransner et al. 10.1038/s43247-023-00791-9
- Potential Predictability of the Spring Bloom in the Southern Ocean Sea Ice Zone B. Buchovecky et al. 10.1029/2023GL105139
- Investigating Predictability of DIC and SST in the Argentine Basin Through Wind Stress Perturbation Experiments S. Swierczek et al. 10.1029/2021GL095504
- Mechanisms driving ESM-based marine ecosystem predictive skill on the east African coast W. Jeon et al. 10.1088/1748-9326/ac7d63
- Key climate change stressors of marine ecosystems along the path of the East African coastal current Z. Jacobs et al. 10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2021.105627
- Recent applications and potential of near-term (interannual to decadal) climate predictions T. O'Kane et al. 10.3389/fclim.2023.1121626
- Integrating human dimensions in decadal-scale prediction for marine social–ecological systems: lighting the grey zone J. Melbourne-Thomas et al. 10.1093/icesjms/fsac228
- Skillful multiyear prediction of marine habitat shifts jointly constrained by ocean temperature and dissolved oxygen Z. Chen et al. 10.1038/s41467-024-45016-5
- NorCPM1 and its contribution to CMIP6 DCPP I. Bethke et al. 10.5194/gmd-14-7073-2021
- Exploring the Potential of Forecasting Fish Distributions in the North East Atlantic With a Dynamic Earth System Model, Exemplified by the Suitable Spawning Habitat of Blue Whiting A. Miesner et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.777427
- Marine high temperature extremes amplify the impacts of climate change on fish and fisheries W. Cheung et al. 10.1126/sciadv.abh0895
- Ecophysiology of the kleptoplastidic dinoflagellate Shimiella gracilenta: II. Effects of temperature and global warming J. Ok et al. 10.4490/algae.2022.37.3.2
- Skillful Multi‐Month Predictions of Ecosystem Stressors in the Surface and Subsurface Ocean S. Mogen et al. 10.1029/2023EF003605
- Editorial: Impact of climate change on coastal environmental variability and aquatic physiology F. Giomi et al. 10.3389/fphys.2023.1305645
- Predictable Variations of the Carbon Sinks and Atmospheric CO2Growth in a Multi‐Model Framework T. Ilyina et al. 10.1029/2020GL090695
- Eco-evolutionary responses of the microbial loop to surface ocean warming and consequences for primary production P. Cherabier & R. Ferrière 10.1038/s41396-021-01166-8
- Can Environmental Conditions at North Atlantic Deep-Sea Habitats Be Predicted Several Years Ahead? ——Taking Sponge Habitats as an Example F. Liu et al. 10.3389/fmars.2021.703297
- Skilful decadal-scale prediction of fish habitat and distribution shifts M. Payne et al. 10.1038/s41467-022-30280-0
- Increase in ocean acidity variability and extremes under increasing atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> F. Burger et al. 10.5194/bg-17-4633-2020
Latest update: 29 Jun 2024
Short summary
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global scales marine ecosystem drivers such as temperature, pH, O2 and NPP are potentially predictable 3 (at the surface) and more than 10 years (subsurface) in advance. However, there are distinct regional differences in the potential predictability of these drivers. Our study suggests that physical–biogeochemical forecast systems have considerable potential for use in marine resource management.
Climate variations can have profound impacts on marine ecosystems. Here we show that on global...
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